Friday, January 10, 2014

The Seth Davis "Buy" Curse

So far, things are looking pretty bad for Seth's portfolio. There were eight teams that Seth put a "buy" rating on that I told you to sell:

1) Butler, which lost to Depaul at home last night. Yikes.
2) Missouri, which lost to Georgia at home on Weds. Yikes.
3) Notre Dame, which lost to NC State at home on Tues. Yikes.
4) Oregon, which lost Cal at home last night. Yikes.
5) Colorado, which squeaked by Washington State in OT.
6) UMass, which squeaked by St. Joe's at home.
7) Oklahoma, which lost at home to Kansas. (No shocker, but nothing special either.)
8) Syracuse, which blew out Va. Tech at home.

So far, this is a brutal slaughter. Here's one way to put this in perspective: after just one game, four of these teams have fallen more than ten spots in the Kenpom ratings: Butler (-15), Missouri (-17), Notre Dame (-15), and Oregon (-10). On average, the eight teams have fallen about 7 spots. After one game.

Here's another way to put it in perspective. According to their Kenpom ratings at the time Davis rated a them a buy, the chance that Butler, Missouri, Notre Dame, and Oregon would all lose at home in their next game was 0.09%. That's not 9%, that's nine one-hundredths of a percent. In other words, one-in-a-thousand.

Chance cannot explain this. Something more sinister must be at work here. Is Davis pumping and dumping? Or does the Monkey have powers that cannot be explained by science or math?

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