Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Evaluating predictions

Here are my predictions from November for the Big Ten:
MSU 14-4
UW 14-4
OSU 13-5
MI 12-6
Ind 10-8
Iowa 10-8
IL- 8-10
Pur- 8-10
Minn- 7-11
PSU- 5-13
NW- 4-14
Neb- 3-15

Actual results:
MI 15-3
UW 12-6
MSU 12-6
Nebraska 11-7
OSU 10-8
Iowa 9-9
Minn 8-10
Indiana 7-11
Illinois 7-11
PSU 6-12
Northwestern 6-12
Purdue 5-13

There are more than a few glaring mistakes this year, so let's start with where I didn't completely screw up.

MSU and UW tied for 2nd, not for 1st. This was what I wrote about how MSU doesn't win the title:
Last season MSU struggled a bit when early injuries limited Trice and Harris. While no one wants to see college kids get hurt, MSU is no more immune to injuries than any other team and it would only take one for this team to look more ordinary.
Not too far off.

Still both UW and MSU were 2 games off my prediction. I was also 2 games off on Northwestern. I was only 1 game off for Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and PSU.

I was 3 games off for MI, OSU, Indiana, and Purdue—not good.

MI- My concern with MI was over the loss of Burke as a playmaker and early in the season I didn't see point guard who could fill that role. Then Stauskus turned into Evan Turner and became the point forward who made plays for everyone and became player of the year. Didn't see that coming.

OSU- they sure look a lot like last years Badgers. Some great defensive parts, but they struggle to score and lost 2 overtime games.

Indiana- This was my preseason IU quote:
Does Indiana miss the Tourney? Probably not. That would take a pretty epic collapse. Not beyond Tom Crean, but not likely.
I don't know how Tom Crean can't win with all that talent. Vonleh was a top 10 talent coming in and didn't disappoint. Yogi played like an all Big Ten performer and still not even an NCAA birth. Sad. If Vonleh goes to the NBA as he should, this team may stay down.

Purdue- I was right that Purdue would be bad, but I didn't think they would be this bad. From the preseason:
Purdue has probably the easiest conference schedule of any team as they only face Indiana and MSU once at home, and IL and Iowa once on the road. The record may be about the same, but I think this team takes a step back and not forward this year.
Hammons was severely disappointing after a very disappointing start. He was erratic, foul and turnover prone. Painter never really figured out how to use the other 10 guys, so he just used them all. I don't think this team will be this bad next year, but Hammons looks like a head case so who knows.

I was a full 8 games off on Nebraska, but so was most every other person on earth.

Overall this was a bad year for my predictions. I didn't get a single one right, and I was clearly wrong in general about the competitiveness of the bottom of the league. I got 5-6 right for my top and bottom, but I think a monkey, or even Seth Davis could have done that.  

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