Sunday, August 28, 2016


UW is a 10 point underdog against LSU in what could be the first of many double digit underdog games this year. Much has been made of the schedule, and for good reason. UW has 6 brutal games. 
After LSU there is @MSU, @MI, OSU, @Iowa, and @Northwestern. If UW were to go 3-3 in those 6 games, they would have had a great season. 2-4 would still be OK. 1-5 disappointing, but not horribly so. That isn't even the end. UW also has games against solid opponents in Nebraska and Minnesota, but at least those are both at home. There are only 4 games that UW should run away with against Akron, Georgia St, Illinois, and @Purdue. 

Given the schedule, 8-4 would be a good season, 9-3 would be spectacular. This is the type of schedule that can break a young team if they aren't up to the challenge though. UW is super young. The depth chart released for the LSU game had just 3 senior starters and 5 seniors total in the 2 deep on offense. The defense is even younger with 3 seniors total in the 2 deep on defense. That's only 8 seniors compared to 14 Juniors, 12 sophomores, and 7 freshman in the offensive and defensive 2 deep. How the young players respond to adversity (which is bound to come) will determine if this team goes to a decent bowl, or ends up home for Bowl season. 

The youth does bode well for the future. UW's schedule is much lighter next year when these players will be well seasoned. The non-conference season is highlighted by the end of the SEC neutral site games vs LSU and Alabama, resulting in a road game against beatable BYU. The Big Ten schedule flips so that UW has 5 conference home games and only 4 on the road. The 4 road games are all winnable, (@Nebraska, @Illinois, @Indiana, @Minn) and OSU and MSU come off the schedule entirely. The home games are Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa and Michigan. This schedule looks like one that UW could make an undefeated run to the Big Ten Championship with, much like Iowa did last year. 

Back to this season, and this week. First week games are hard to pick as there is so little info on either team at this point. That said I'm taking UW and the points. This is sort of home game, and home team underdogs tend to do well. The over under is also a measly 44.5, indicating expectations of a low scoring game. I like double digit dogs in low scoring games. UW 17 LSU 23. 

1 comment:

  1. Good analysis. I'm hopefully they can keep it close. Worry about Fournette wearing them down and breaking some big runs in the 4th Quarter.