Monday, December 26, 2016

Big Ten Season Predictions

Big Ten conference play starts tomorrow, including a couple of surprisingly important games (Northwestern at Penn State, Michigan State at Minnesota). Time to get our picks in for the record.

Before I do that, an aside. Before the season I had two bold predictions: (1) Michigan State would be a bubble team, and (2) Wisconsin would win the Big Ten by at least three games. I feel pretty good about one of those. A guy can dream for the other.

Now let's take a look at what T-Rank is saying:

Rk Team Rec
10 Purdue 14-4
12 Wisconsin 13-5
17 Indiana 12-6
29 Michigan 11-7
32 Minnesota 11-7
40 Northwestern 10-8
43 Ohio St. 9-9
55 Illinois 8-10
68 Maryland 8-10
67 Michigan St. 7-11
83 Iowa 7-11
86 Penn St. 6-12
93 Nebraska 6-12
95 Rutgers 6-12

If that came to pass, we have the top six Big Ten teams in the tournament, with Ohio State, Illinois, and Maryland on the bubble, and Michigan St. on the outside looking in. You can also see the (relative) strength of the bottom of the conference this year, with even Rutgers projected to win 6 games.

Here are the T-Rank title odds:

And here is the T-Rank WinMatrix™

Finally, my subjective predictions:
Wisconsin 14–4
Purdue 13–5
Indiana 12–6
Michigan St. 11–7
Michigan 10–8
Northwestern 10–8
Ohio St. 10–8
Minnesota 9–9
Maryland 9–9
Illinois 8–10
Iowa 7–11
Penn St. 5–13
Nebraska 4–14
Rutgers 4–14


  1. I apologize for the lateness of my post. I was out of town Sunday, and rather than blog on Monday I played trivia after taking a nap. This will allow Torvik to put an asterix next to my win at the end of the season.
    UW 14-4
    IU 14-4
    Purdue 13-5
    OSU 10-8
    MI 10-8
    MSU 10-8
    Maryland 9-9
    NW 8-10
    IL 7-11
    Minn 7-11
    PSU 6-12
    Rutgers 5-13
    Nebraska 4-14

  2. I win.

    First, you didn't even put in a prediction for Iowa!

    Second, in the 13 teams you did put in a prediction for, I beat you BY SIX GAMES! That means that even if you have predicted Iowa's unlikely ascent to 10-8 (and, to be fair, you are missing 9 wins from your totals, so I'm willing to pretend you predicted 9-9 for them) you WOULD STILL LOSE!

    Go ahead and just try to enjoy the Caribbean now, buddy.