Thursday, October 5, 2017

UW Nebraska

Last week I split, as Bucky had the spread covered before 2 late NW scores, but I got the over under. 1-1 on the season so far. This week Bucky is an 11.5 point favorite on the road, and the over under is 45.5.

Vegas doesn't like Nebraska much. I would bet that it has not been that often that Nebraska has been a double digit underdog at home in a night game in the past 30 years. Vegas also appears to be buying into the Nebraska of the past few weeks as opposed to the Nebraska of the first couple weeks.

Nebraska has been a Jekyll and Hyde act so far this year. The first 2 games was all offense as they put up 43 in a win vs. Arkansas St, and 35 in a loss @ Oregon, while the defense gave up 36 and 42 respectively. The next 3 games against NIU, Rutgers, and @Illinois, Nebraska has only scored 17, 27, and 28 against some pretty crappy teams. The defense played better those 3 games giving up only 21, 17, and 6. So which is it?

Nebraska is running a Bucky style offense this year with a pocket QB who doesn't run, and they have more rushes than passes. My guess is Vegas has the low over under because they are expecting to see 2 teams that want to run the ball and control the clock, so that means fewer possessions all around. I'm not buying. Nebraska has not seen a defense like Bucky yet, and they won't run the ball against that D. That means more throws, more clock stopping, more possessions for Bucky, and probably a pick 6 as Nebraska has also been very turnover prone.

I'm repeating last week, taking Bucky and giving the points, and taking the over.

Bucky 38
Nebraska 17

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