Thoughts on the 30-second shot clock

After experimenting with the 30-second shot clock in the non-Big-Dance postseason tournaments, it looks like NCAA Men's Basketball is going to change the rule next year:

Men's basketball is likely heading toward reducing its shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds, NCAA rules committee chairman Rick Byrd told ESPN.com on Monday.

Why the change? Andy Katz's summary was spot-on, I think:  "The trend is for this committee to do something, and that's the easiest thing for them to change."

Simply put, a lot of people harp on college basketball for being too slow, and this will presumably add a few possessions per game, which will likely increase total scoring a little bit -- assuming that having less time to score doesn't decrease offensive efficiency.

Here are some musings on the possible outcomes of this rule change.

Best-Case Scenario

Teams very rarely use the full 35-seconds of clock anyhow, so the change to 30-seconds has no effect on offensive efficiency. In fact, it increases offensive efficiency because:

1) Many teams that do use the full 35 seconds are actually just standing around for 20 seconds to rest so that they can play better defense. (Dick Bennett's Wisconsin teams sometimes did this.) With less time to rest on offense, these defense-first teams will be worse on defense, which will increase offensive efficiency.

2) Many teams respond to the compressed shot clock by running full-court press, then fall back into a zone defense -- not with the hope of forcing turnovers, but with the aim of preventing teams from getting into their offense until little time remains on the shot clock. But most teams are pretty bad at this, and capable college guards shred the soft press leading to transition buckets and open shots, with just a few more turnovers. The game becomes more run and gun, more exciting, higher scoring, and even more efficient on offense.

Worst-Case Scenario

Smart coaches quickly adjust to this pro-defense rule change, and the inconsequential increase in possessions per game is more than offset by a drop in offensive efficiency. Teams like Louisville, West Virginia, and Texas (with Shaka Smart at the helm) utilize their stifling full-court press to eliminate even the possibility of running of offense, forcing not only turnovers but frequent shot-clock prayers. More and more teams adopt this style of play, leading to benches filled with long but not particularly skilled players. Without freedom of movement, half-court offense in 12 seconds becomes impossible, and games in the 40s become common.

Most Likely Scenario

Nothing much changes. The shot clock rarely comes into play as it is, and shaving off five seconds is inconsequential. The extra few possessions don't change efficiency, much, and total scoring changes 0-3 points per game per team. The college basketball haters continue to hate with their hateful hate, same as it ever was.

For what it's worth, here were the final results of the 30-second shot clock experiment this last postseason -- keep in mind, though, that this is a small sample that in total amounts to a typical weekend's worth of games during the regular season:

.@nuclearbdgr All post-season pace & efficiency numbers: pic.twitter.com/vP8JKsl8t5
— Bart Torvik (@totally_t_bomb) April 8, 2015

Time for Torvik's annual beatdown

It's March, so that means it's time for me to destroy Torvik in the Big Ten tournament bracket challenge. I'll post my picks first and we can laugh at his later.

Wed
PSU over Nebraska
Minn over Rutgers

Thur
IL over MI
Iowa over PSU
NW over IU
OSU over Minn

Fri
UW over IL
Iowa over Purdue
Maryland over NW
OSU over MSU

Sat
UW over Iowa
Maryland over OSU

Sun
UW over Maryland

All Big Ten

 I am trying something new with the All Big Ten team. All Big Ten by class. Here's how I think it should look:

Seniors:
Kaminsky, Aaron White, Brandon Dawson, Dez Wells, DJ Newbill
I felt these choices were pretty obvious. There is not a ton of depth beyond the top 5 seniors, which bodes well for a fun Big Ten next year with lots of talent coming back. Rice missed too many games, and Trice was too inconsistent.

Juniors:
AJ Hammons, Dekker, Jake Layman, Yogi, Petteway
Hammons had a comeback player of the year type season if that was an actual award in college. Dekker and Layman were very good on great teams and could have put up huge numbers on a worse team or if they were more selfish. Yogi is Yogi. Petteway just had no help this year.

Sophomores:
Hayes, Malcolm Hill, Troy Williams, Koenig, Zach Irvin
Hill and Koenig got huge mid season opportunities when Rice and Jackson got hurt and both took full advantage. The last spot cam down to Nunn and Irvin. I gave it to Irvin because after Walton and Lavert went down he stepped up and helped MI get to 8 wins. This class also doesn't have a ton of depth but I expect to see a bunch of the 2nd tier guys step up next year as juniors.

Freshman
Melo Trimble, D'Angelo Russell, James Blackmon, Bryant McIntosh, Jae'Sean Tate
The top 3 are easy. The rest were tough as the freshman class is loaded, especially at guard. The Big Ten will have fun players to watch in the coming years. Tate reminds me so much of a young Alando Tucker. I have little doubt he will be great and was super fun to watch this year. He took away a starting spot from a bunch of more experienced players on a good team.

Evaluating the predictions

I feel OK about the predictions this year. It wasn't a great year, but not awful like last year. This was a young Big Ten with a lot of new faces which made it harder to predict than normal, plus there was the addition of 2 new teams (I missed on both). If I got it right or within 1 that's a win in my book. Within 2 is a push. Everything worse that that is obviously bad. Of the misses there weren't any glaring errors like my 8 game miss with Nebraska last year. I was no more than 4 games off with any team. Despite adding 2 teams, I had the same number of misses (5) as last year. I'll only address the misses.

The wins this year are UW, MSU, MI, IL, Indiana, NW
The pushed are PSU, Minnesota, OSU
Misses are Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Maryland

Rutgers- One of the two new teams I missed on. I actually had them with 3 wins on my first draft but the total wins and losses didn't add up right. I added a couple wins for them thinking they might pick off some of the mediocre middle at home, but was wrong. I blasted this team in my preseason A-rank and predicted they would be the worst team in the big ten, so I don't feel too bad about the 3 game miss.

Maryland- The other new team I missed on. This team was tough as I didn't know much about them coming in, plus they had 4 freshman in the rotation, plus Wells and Smotryz missed a bunch of games early with injuries. I underrated this team and they kept getting better as the season went along.

Purdue- Speaking of teams with lots of freshman and getting better as the season went along. This is the 2nd year in a row I have missed on Purdue. I feel like I didn't trust my eyes enough on this team. It was obvious this team was vastly improved over last year but I was too chicken to pick more wins. I don't think many saw a 12-6 season, but I should have been better than 4 games off.

Nebraska- This is 2 years in a row missing on this team too. I blasted this team in my A-rank, but again I didn't trust my eyes enough to downgrade them appropriately. They got pretty much the same numbers out of Petteway and Shields but the supporting cast stunk and they averaged 6 fewer points per game as a team. The problem was shooting, as they were a God awful 28.6% from 3 while taking 36% of their FGA from 3.

Iowa- After 3 years of .500 basketball, Iowa finally broke through with a 12-6 season just as I gave up on them. Aaron White was incredible, and Jok got better and better as the year went along to give them something from the perimeter to go with that strong front court.

How good (or bad) is Wisconsin's defense, really?

If you compare the Kenpom ratings to the T-Rank, one difference that may jump out is that Kenpom ranks Wisconsin's defense 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and T-Rank has it ranked 24th. That's a fairly large and significant difference, particularly if you're one of those people who filters out national championship contenders by metrics such as "top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency" or some such thing.

So what accounts for this difference? Basically, the difference is caused by a rather extreme feature of Kenpom 2.0: it deeply discounts (sometimes all but ignores) the results of mismatched blowouts. So Wisconsin's opening game demolition of Northern Kentucky -- which Wisconsin held to an incredible .526 points per possession -- likely doesn't much figure into Wisconsin's Kenpom rating.

To see how drastic this Kenpom 2.0 adjustment affects the Badgers, compare their defensive numbers to Villanova. If you look at the raw efficiency numbers, Wisconsin and Villanova have essentially identical numbers:

Team	Raw DE	Raw DE Rank
Wisconsin	93.5	23
Villanova	93.3	21

This is just "total points allowed divided by total possessions" and by this metric the two defenses are very similar.

But Wisconsin's raw defensive efficiency gets adjusted significantly downward, while Villanova's gets adjusted slightly upwards:

Team	Adj DE	Adj DE Rank
Wisconsin	94.9	48
Villanova	93.1	20

You might think this adjustment is being made based on strength of schedule -- perhaps Villanova has just played better offensive teams, which would naturally lead to an adjustment in their favor. But according to the Kenpom numbers, that isn't so:

Team	Opp. Adj OE	Rank
Wisconsin	105.0	51
Villanova	104.9	56

So strength of opponent would favor Wisconsin, if anyone.

Other than strength of opponent and adjustment for mismatches, the other adjustment that could affect the ratings is recency. Kenpom weighs more recent games more heavily than older games (as does T-Rank). But this is a minor factor, and cannot explain the large downward adjustment compared to Villanova. Besides, Wisconsin has been playing better on defense recently.

The T-Rank algorithm discounts the effect of mismatches too, but obviously not as aggressively. I'm quite certain that this accounts for the difference in the adjusted defensive ratings. Many of the Badgers' most impressive defensive performances have come in the kinds of games (such as the Northern Kentucky game) that Kenpom 2.0 discounts or ignores.

There's reason to believe the T-Rank is closer to the truth. One clue to this is that Kenpom had Wisconsin's adjusted DE ranked in the 80s just a few games ago. Meanwhile, T-Rank has consistently had Wisconsin's adjusted DE ranked much higher, in the top 35 all along, and it has therefore more accurately predicted the Badgers' performance in recent games.

One of the fun things about doing the T-Rank this year is that it has given me some insights into the vagaries of the Kenpom ratings. They have amply earned their status as "authoritative" but they are not perfect, and they are by no means the simple application of god-given math. Judgments are involved, and sometimes those judgments -- even if they are correct in the macro sense that they will most often produce better predictions for most teams most of the time -- sometimes produce error.

Hot Take on the Brandon Knight Trade! AKA Old Fashioneds with Jimmy Boeheim.

Hot takes aren't always the pinnacle of the analysis spectrum, just ask friends and enemies of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, if there are any left. However, theories abound that the gut really does make the best instant decisions.  So, let's fire up that old tankard!

   

If the rumored trade stays as is (Bucks still need to clear two roster spots((sounds like Kenyon Martin will be waived, and who knows about Sanders)), the Bucks receive Michael Carter-Williams from the Sixers, and Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis from the Suns. (It looks like we also sent Kendall Marshall back to the Suns, but he's out for the rest of the year anyhow) Gotta say, the gut says, "I LOVE IT!" Even if this deal was getting Carter- Williams straight up for Knight, I think we come out on top, let alone adding a couple possible rotation guys.  It's actually similar to the deal which brought Knight to Milwaukee.  Instead of paying too much (read: market value for a starting point guard) for Brandon Jennings, who wasn't a perfect fit for whatever the Bucks were trying to be, we shipped him to Detroit for Knight (Middleton, et al.).  Instead of paying Knight too much this offseason or letting him walk, we shipped him out for a couple inexpensive years of Michael Carter-Williams.  If you're a team like the Bucks, and you don't know if a particular guy is part of the path forward, you're no doubt better off not paying him way too much for the next 4 or 5 years (See: Illyasova, Ersan and Sanders, Larry).

I imagine some pundits will argue the Bucks shouldn't be messing with their chemistry at this point, but that will end up being a Kornheiseresque talking point in an empty argument. This year's team, aiming for a 6 seed in the playoffs, is playing way above their depth with a hodgepodge of journeymen and roleplayers. Don't get me wrong, it's exciting to see good defense and Swiss Army Knife basketball, but they aren't going anywhere this year.  I can't think of another team who could have gotten BETTER after losing (for the year) their: "future superstar", a highly paid defense & rebounding big, and a quality backup point guard, not to mention several other multiweek injuries scattered around the rest of the roster.  Chalk that survival/evolution up to an overabundance of solid, veteran, rotation guys... and good coaching, right?  It's gotta be the coaching.  I mean, just look at OJ Mayo this year vs. OJ Mayo last year.

This is no doubt a move for down the road, and it's not going to hurt anything this year.  Let's hope there's not a hidden first rounder mixed somewhere in the fine print.  Back to the point, just who are these guys we're getting in return for Brandon Knight?

Plumlee- Let's be honest, it's hard to keep the Plumlees straight. It seems like one is good every year, and this year it's not Miles. He was starting for Phoenix last year, and putting up an 8 and 8.  But he's riding the pines this year.  I bet he gets some solid run for the Bucks this year, does Plumleeish things, and lets Henson be a little more flexible in the roles he's used in.  He's on the books for about $2 Million next year, the last year of his rookie deal.

Ennis- A rookie point guard from Syracuse, who played one very solid year in college.  He went 18th overall in a very deep 2014 draft, and was the 5th point guard taken.  He hasn't played much for the Suns this year, but that's not saying too much, as they were apparently following the Kahn blueprint of accumulating as many point guards as possible.  Unfortunately for them, it took until this year's trade deadline for Phoenix to realize there's only one ball to go around.  So, they traded 3 point guards (Dragic, Thomas, and Ennis) at the deadline, and added 2 (Knight and Marshall).  Ennis could be a sneaky good piece of this trade, especially under Jason Kidd's tutelage.  I really enjoyed watching him play at Syracuse last year.  He was very heady, was always under control, was clutch in some big moments, rarely turned the ball over, and played with so much poise for a Freshman.  He's a bit slight for the NBA game, and is not a particularly explosive player, but it's easy to see him as a backup point guard going forward.  His potent shooting stroke has translated to the D-League at least, where he's averaging 18 ppg, while hitting 50% of his shots.  He's under team control through 2018.  Keep an eye on him.

Carter-Williams- On the surface, this looks like the Bucks traded a very athletic, shoot first point guard who didn't create much, and got back a true point guard who can't shoot, but plays great defense, and is a much bigger and more complete player.  In this case, both books may really be their covers.  Granted, MCW has played on an historically awful 76ers team over the past few years, chucking it up there far too often, which has probably stunted his development.  And let's not forget that Brandon was an alternate for the All-Star Game this year, although his numbers truly are inflated on this Starless Bucks team.  In fact, that last sentence is what gives me the most hope about this trade.  If Knight gets paid this offseason like his numbers say he ought to, the Bucks could have been on the hook for at least $12 Million a year for 4 years of Knight, or two more years of MCW at $2.3 and then 3 Million.  For a team that's succeeding in large part because of it's Defense, the money saved over the next two years, and the resulting roster flexibility makes this look like a steal.

It's time for some fully Subjective Hot Take Fandom- OR, continuing to attempt to translate Collegiate success to the NBA level (See: Tyler Ennis paragraph above).  But really, let's be honest, who's watched much, if any of the Sixers three year shitshow?  Gotta speak to what you know- and I know I thoroughly enjoyed MCW's game at the college level, and that guy is closer to the guy we'll see in Milwaukee than the guy who's chucking it in Philly.  Even though he couldn't shoot a lick (still can't), he was so long (Bilas?  Bilas?), so solid defensively, such a good rebounder, and so darned competitive that the poor shooting could be overlooked.  He's the type of player who really did seem to make other guys better.  In fact, at the time of the wretched 2013 draft, I thought he should have been the #1 overall pick.  He didn't make me look like a complete idiot when he ran away with the Rookie of the Year Award.   He has been pretty good this year too, even if his numbers are a bit inflated.  Here's a stat that can't be all air- Carter-Williams and Russell Westbrook are the only NBA players averaging at least 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists.

Numbers aside, it's pretty exciting that we'll get to see MCW in a Bucks uniform for the next few years.  The ungodly positional wingspan between Giannis and Carter-Williams alone should be fascinating to watch, especially on defense.  And mark my words... kinda... I think Ennis can be a quality scoring point on the second unit.  Of course, I thought Jordan Taylor could do that in the NBA too, and he had an NBA body.  That's why we write on the internets instead of becoming Assistants to the Assistant General Manager of the Sacramento Kings.  Maybe I just have a thing for Syracuse Point Guards.  Maybe it's because Jimmy Boeheim is quite the drinking buddy, and has been deluding my thinking with his constant stream of libations and his fervent narration of days of yore.

Maybe Boeheim has been pulling a Madden and "driving" to away games, only to sip Old Fashioneds with the Bucks brass, whispering sweet nothings about how good his former Orangemen would look in a Bucks uniform.  For once, it seems Boeheim, the Bucks front office, and yours truly seem to be on the same page.  Maybe we can agree a tall, (6'6) athletic, defensive minded point guard is still an advantage in the modern NBA.  Maybe we all remember Jason Kidd was a point guard who used his size to his advantage, and specialized in making his teammates better.  Ask yourself this- did it ever seem like Kidd ever really was sold on Brandon Knight being "his guy"?  Maybe it's just an irritable bowel type of gut reaction, but I really do think Carter-Williams (and quite possibly Ennis) is going to flourish in Milwaukee.  Maybe Boeheim will put down the beer and the gun and realize his true calling is as a Bucks' Assistant Coach.  Maybe, just maybe this trade is just what the Bucks needed- to add another star, and become relevant in the next few years.  Maybe Scott Walker wasn't just full of hot shit when he told Wisconsin just how much the Bucks mean to this great state of ours.  What?  A bridge too far?  Stage Left?  Oh... Stage Right then.

    

The Eye Test

A sportswriter for the Chicago Sun-Times recently insulted the Badgers on Twitter:

@TeddyGreenstein Putting Wisconsin to the eye test is almost unfair. They’re always the worst-looking good team you’ll ever see.
— Mark Potash (@MarkPotash) February 12, 2015

This is a strange thing to say about the team with most efficient offense in the country this year —in fact, the most efficient offense since at least 2002. Some inquired whether he'd actually watched the Badgers play:

@billdouger3 Only against Purdue and Rutgers. Did not pass the eye test.
— Mark Potash (@MarkPotash) February 13, 2015

This is quite strange. The Badgers played Duke this year. They played Georgetown. They played Oklahoma. They played Michigan, Iowa, and Indiana. (By the way, they scored in bunches in every one of those games.)

But this guy somehow managed to catch the Rutgers game and one other game? Suspicious.

And, of course, the Badgers played that game without the frontrunner for player of the fucking year, Frank Kaminsky. But Mr. Potash probably didn't know that, because he didn't know better than to tune in for Wisconsin versus Rutgers in the first place.

@TylerHaar @TeddyGreenstein Guilty as charged. College basketball is not what it used to be. I should not have commented on it. My bad!
— Mark Potash (@MarkPotash) February 13, 2015

This a half-hearted recantation. He admits he doesn't watch college basketball, but somehow knows it ain't what it used to be. This is really doubling down on his original sin: first he ignorantly impugned the Badgers; when called on it, he put down the whole sport.

To his credit, he at least claimed later to have recanted the entire episode:

@BillLimbach1 @TeddyGreenstein You’re right, Bill. I recanted the tweet last night. I should not have commented on something I don’t know.
— Mark Potash (@MarkPotash) February 13, 2015

This is incorrect. He actually doubled down on the tweet by insinuating that the entire sport fails the eye test. But, to his credit, he did at least admit that he at no point had any idea what he was talking about.

Ultimately, this is the problem with the "eye test." No one watches enough college hoops to have an informed subjective opinion about every team. It's really the "I test." Usually it's a random assortment of stupid opinions based on five minutes of a game that a guy happened to watch at a bar. If you've ever been to a bar, you know that guys at bars have very strong opinions about whatever it is they happen to be observing at that moment. And there's no way that "facts" -- like points scored per possession minus points allowed per possession, adjusted for opponent and venue -- could possibly affect those ignorant opinions.

But these ignorant opinions rule the day, it seems. The rules of the sport must be changed to appease NBA beat writers who didn't like what they saw when watching the best offense in recent memory play without the best player in college basketball.

Or maybe not. Mr. Potash's Twitter bio proudly proclaims that he's a "Native Chicagoan." So maybe, just maybe, this is a FIB thing. One can only hope.

A disastrous evening for the Foul-Up-3 strategy

We are in agreement that there is no obvious answer to the #FoulOrDefend question (that is, when up by 3 points with less than 10 second left, should a team play defense or foul intentionally?).

And I think we are in agreement that it is annoying that there are some people who insist that defending in that situation is just stupid. The events in college basketball last night are why.

As far as I can tell, there were six "Foul or Defend" scenarios, and here's how they went down:

Defend: 3 for 3

La Salle v. VCU, second OT. La Salle, up 3 with less than 10 seconds left, allowed VCU to take a 3-point jumper, which missed. They collected the defensive rebound, hit two free throws, and won.

Southern Ill. v. Loyola Chicago. Loyola, up 3 with less than 10 seconds left, allowed Southern Illinois to dribble up the court without fouling. Then the Saluki player fell down while trying to turn a corner, and turned the ball over. Loyola hit one free throw, and the game was over.

Tennessee v. Vanderbilt,  OT. Tennessee hit two free throws with 8 seconds left to go up by 3. They allowed Vandy's Riley LaChance to take a three-pointer with one second left, which missed. Game over.

Foul: 1 for 3, with an Instaloss

Tennessee v. Vanderbilt. We just learned that Tennessee won this game by defending in OT. But here's how the game got to OT: LaChance hit 1-2 free throws with :08 left to give Vandy a three-point lead. Vandy fouled intentionally with :06 left, and Tennessee hit both FTs to cut the lead to one. Tennessee then fouled immediately, and Vandy hit just one of the two free throws, so the lead was just two. Tennessee's Robert Hubbs III nailed a jumper to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Winthrop v. High Point. This was the nightmare scenario: the foul strategy leading to a loss in regulation. Winthrop was up 3 and fouled intentionally with just :05 left. High Point made both free throws to cut the lead to one, and then fouled Winthrop with still :05 left. Winthrop missed the front end of the one-and-one and then committed a foul going for the rebound with :03 left. High Point's John Brown nailed both free throws to win the game in regulation. INSTA-LOSS

Richmond v. Fordham. This was the foul strategy's only "success" of the evening, and even it led to some serious heartburn. Richmond took a three-point lead with :11 left, and fouled intentionally with :05 left. Fordham hit both free throws to cut the lead to one and fouled immediately, with :04 left. Richmond hit both free throws to go back up by 3, and then immediately fouled again with :03 left. Fordham's Antoine Anderson hit the first FT, then missed the second intentionally allowing Fordham's Mandell Thomas to grab the offensive rebound and attempt a two-point jumper as time expired. It missed.

So the defend strategy was perfect, and foul was 1-3 with a double asterisk: one of the fails was an insta-loss and the "success" allowed a higher-percentage shot at a tie than likely with the defend strategy.

Technical T-Rank Note

Close observer(s) of the T-Rank may have noticed that all the top teams' Barthags dropped last Friday. Very astute observer(s) would have noticed that the worst teams' Barthags went up.

This happened because I lowered the "exponent" used to calculate the Barthag. This is a constant in the formula used to calculate the Pythagorean Expectancy. Changing it doesn't change the rank order of teams, and different Barthags don't change how the projected scores of games are calculated -- but it does change the projected certainty of the result. In other words, that percentage figure in the T-Rank predictions. That figure is actually important, because it is what I use to project future records. (For example, a team that is projected to have a 50% of winning game 1, an 80% chance of winning game 2, and a 70% chance of winning game 3 will have a projected record of 2-1 because .5 + .8 + .7 = 2.)

I lowered the T-Rank exponent from 10.25 to 9.0 because favorites were not winning as often as projected. Also, the projected records for the top teams just seemed overly optimistic to me.

So that's the explanation for that.

Evaluating predictions

We are closing in on the half way point of the season so it seems like a good time to take a look back at the A-rank. Overall I feel pretty good. UW is clearly better than every team in the league, PSU, NW, and Rutgers are the worst 3 teams, and everyone else is in between.

UW- Prediction 15-3. 6-1 so far. The loss of Jackson and the road loss to Rutgers are clearly the story for UW. With Jackson gone until March, UW is a whistle happy ref away from having to play Showalter and Dukan extended minutes at guard in any given game. With Koenig playing so well, 15-3 is still within grasp, but it will be tough with 6 road games remaining on the schedule and no Jackson.

OSU- Prediction 13-5. 5-3 so far. 8 games in, this team is still a bit of a mystery to me. Russell has been everything he looked to be early and more. His line is PPG 19.3, RPG 5.2, APG 4.9, SPG 1.8 while shooting FG%47.0, FT%78.5, 3FG%45.3. The only negative is averaging 2.9 turnovers. If he isn't Freshman of the year in the Big Ten and in the NBA next year I will be shocked. OSU may have become too dependent on him. In OSU's 5 losses (all to good teams) he has shot 6-20, 4-17, 4-16, 3-15, and 10-22. In those losses OSU has shot under 40% in all but one (42.1% at home against Iowa).

They have pretty much got what was expected out of Loving, Thompson and Scott, and the freshman have all contributed in limited minutes. Strangely, Anthony Lee has played very limited minutes almost exclusively at center while splitting minutes with an endlessly disappointing Amir Williams and Trey McDonald. OSU has made a major change in the last couple games starting Lee at center and replacing Loving with Tate. They are also playing more man and less zone.

This team is closer to the murky middle of the Big Ten than the ceiling I thought they could reach. I may have gone a bit too high with 13 wins, but they will finish near the top of the Big Ten and be a tournament team. All the mid-season changes make this team just as hard to predict as they were at the beginning of the year. If they work then this team can still get to 13 wins, but if they fail they could fall to 9-9.

MSU- Prediction 11-7. 4-3 so far. I am comfortable with this pick so far, as MSU is what I thought they were. The next 8 games have only 3 against teams with winning conference records and 2 of those are against Lavertless MI.They could make a big run, but perimeter teams tend to have bad losses. MSU has already barely beat PSU and NW at home, the latter in overtime.

MSU has made some changes that may help them down the stretch. Shilling has taken over as the starter at center, although center minutes are still largely split with Costello and others. Talented freshman Bess is now healthy and getting playing time. MSU has a crowded backcourt so more small lineups are probable going forward. As I stated in my predictions, Izzo just won't let this team miss the tournament.

Maryland- Prediction 10-8. 5-2 so far. Maryland is finally healthy and hit the Big Ten season running. They have 2 road wins against MSU and Purdue in addition to another win against MSU at home. This team looks better than my 10-8 prediction. Trimble, Wells and Layman give this team 3 big time scorers that can carry them to as high as 2nd place in the Big Ten. They also have Iowa, OSU and UW on the schedule just once so they should make a big run down the stretch.

Smotryz has been coming off the bench but getting about 20 minutes now that he is healthy. Pack was sent to the bench in favor of better shooting freshman Nickens but continues to play starter minutes in relief. Dodd, Cekovsky, and Graham are holding down the center position on a defense that is surprisingly good. Outside of the Indiana loss their opponents have not reached 70 points in any game. This team has a good chance to get to 13 wins and 2nd place in the Big Ten.

MI- Prediction 9-9. 5-3 so far. I'm glad this team played well out of the gate as I think I was right in not predicting disaster for them after their horrible preseason. With the Lavert injury they may end up in disaster despite playing OK @Rutgers and vs UW without him. It's just hard to lose a player who leads your team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and not suck. MI's start was a bit of smoke and mirrors anyway as they did not beat a team with a winning record in conference play. With no Lavert and a tough schedule I doubt this team wins more than 2 games the rest of the season.

Iowa- Prediction 9-9. 4-3 so far. Iowa has already made it through the toughest part of their schedule at an impressive 4-3 including 2 wins over OSU. As predicted the frontcourt has been the strength of this team with White, Uthoff and Olesani leading the team in scoring. The backcourt is bad which has already led to the benching of Clemmons in favor of Jok who shoots even worse.

Iowa has 7 of it's last 11 games against teams that probably won't finish over .500 in Big Ten play so they have a chance to be better than the 9-9 I predicted. Success will depend partly on if Aaron White recovers from the stinger he suffered Saturday. If he does Iowa should end up near the top of the Big Ten with MSU, OSU, Maryland and Indiana. If White has to sit out any significant amount of time then Iowa may be looking at another late season collapse to the NCAA bubble.

Illinois- Prediction 9-9. 3-4 so far. I predicted IL would be about 2 games better than last season even though they lost Abrams before the season. After losing Rice, and now Cosby I don't think they can overcome all the injuries and will end up around last seasons win total of 7. The young kids Hill, Nunn, and Black are stepping up and taking advantage of the opportunity to play, but that's just too many losses to sustain. The seniors Egwu and Starks just aren't good enough players to step up to the challenge.

Nebraska- Prediction 9-9. 4-3 so far. Nebraska is doing just as I thought they would. They are 4-1 at home and have yet to win on the road. Petteway and Sheilds dominate everything about this team and they will carry them the rest of the year. They inserted Parker into the starting lineup over Webster several weeks ago. They got back Leslee Smith for some added bulk to their front court but lost David Rivers to injury. This team has to play 7 of it's last 11 games on the road and has some tough home games. They will have trouble making the tournament with some bad preseason losses.

Indiana- Prediction 9-9. 5-2 so far. IU is better than I thought they would be. They were bad defensively and too small before they lost Mosquera-Perea, but they don't seem to care. With 4 guards and either 6'7" freshman Holt or 6'6" sophomore Hartman at center they are finding ways to win by scoring, and boy can this team score. They are 9th in the country in PPG and 24th in FG% without having any big man to get them easy points inside. It's hard to see how this team doesn't get to double digit wins and get into the tournament.

Minnesota- Prediction 8-10. 2-6 so far. Minnesota may not reach my prediction of 8 wins, but I don't think I misjudged them. They started the season off 1-6 but with 5 of the 6 losses by 5 points or fewer and one in OT. Nate Mason is still one of my favorite freshman this year, and Morris and Hollins give them enough scoring to win some games. They are just an OK team that will only get another 4-5 wins and are bound for the NIT. With all the close losses they may end up below my prediction but I'm OK with that.

Purdue- Prediction 8-10. 4-3 so far. In my prediction I went 8-10 but said I wouldn't be surprised if this team made a tourney run. I'm still not sure if I was too chicken to predict this team as a 10 win club or dead on. They beat MI and Minn at home and needed OT to win @PSU. The only impressive win was against Iowa but that was without Aaron White which doesn't impress. Then again, they played well in the 3 close losses @UW, vs Maryland and @IL.

This team has a lot of balance with 6 players averaging between 9.5 and 10.7 PPG. Hammons was sent to the bench in favor of starting freshman Haas and the results have been great. It's not too often an upperclassman who has started since his freshman year and is kind of a head case gets better after being benched. All too often you see that player melt down and transfer or completely lose confidence, but Hammons has responded. He is currently leading the team in PPG, RPG, and blocks (although he still leads the team in turnovers).

PSU- Prediction 6-12. 1-6 so far. I thought Newbill would score enough to steal a few wins for this team by himself. He is leading the conference in scoring but they have just one win to show for it. They look like they will end up short of 6 wins at this point.

Northwestern- Prediction 5-13. 1-5 so far. I thought NW might play through their center Olah more as they are a slow it down team and he is the only efficient scorer. Instead they are having their guards Demps and McIntosh chuck it consistently. The results are predictable and they will struggle to get to 5 wins.

Rutgers- Prediction 5-13. 2-6 so far. This team is even worse than I predicted which makes the UW loss to them that much harder to understand. I don't know if they win another game this year. They also fall short of the lowly 5 win total.

Gasser Being Gasser?

Maryland at Indiana

This week's battle of Big Ten first place-ish teams continues tonight with Maryland at Indiana. (Wisconsin beat Iowa, resoundingly, in the first such clash.) Maryland is tied with the Badgers at 5-1, but Indiana is a surprising 4-1 and could make itself a legitimate contender with a win tonight.

Well, let's say a legitimate pretender. I'm still not buying Indiana. They are #55 in the T-Rank and #54 in Kenpom.  They have four close wins and one blowout loss in conference, which leaves them middle of the pack in adjusted efficiency even in conference play. (Among all teams, Indiana's conference-only adjusted efficiency is still just #57. Indeed, they've dropped in the computer ratings since conference play began.)

That said, how real is Maryland? They are clearly a decent team, led by an electrifying freshman. But I'm skeptical that they're truly a top-10 ten. And a game in Bloomington against even a mediocre Indiana team is a perfect chance for them to fall from their perch. This is probably why the Vegas line, which opened Maryland -1, has shifted to Indiana -1.5

Obviously, I think it would be better for the Badgers if Indiana wins, because I think it's much more likely that Maryland is a true contender. And I generally root for the home team in these conference tilts. But I'm going to go ahead and put on record my PREDICTION that Maryland wins. That way I'll be happy either way.

Friday Facts

I took a crude look at how the loss of Traevon might affect the Badgers.

The Friday Facts.

Something to worry about?

Obvious answer. Hell yes. This is a bad loss. It probably will be the difference between a 1 and a 2 seed. I know there was no Frank and Trevon got hurt and didn't return, but this is a bad team they lost to. The defense on this Badger team is not great, and is hidden by a terrific offense. This team is like the 15-1 Packers that looked great because Rodgers was so incredible, but wasn't as good as 15-1 sounds. So it's time to panic if you think this team was going to skate to a conference Championship, final 4 and National Championship game vs. Kentucky.

I have just one hope/expectation for this team, and that is to win the Big Ten Regular Season title. While this loss doesn't help, the Badgers are still in first place. They have a favorable schedule and it doesn't look like the injuries today are long term so they should get Jackson and Kaminsky back. Anything beyond a conference championship is gravy. The post season is too unpredictable. Remember the Badgers at one point lost 5 of 6 games last year including a loss to Northwestern. Not too many would have predicted a final 4 for them at that point.

Anything can happen in the post season. The NCAA final last season consisted of a 7 and and 8 seed. Don't get too worked up about Bucky's chances in the tourney, because it's a crap shoot. Let's hope they play better and I can enjoy them winning another Big Ten Championship.

Conference only stats

I've got a Friday Facts post up over at Bucky's Fifth Quarter, this time with conference-only stats for the Big Ten.

I've also gone ahead and set up a page here that has the conference-only stats for every conference. It's over there, on the right. So if you want to cheat and get the Friday Facts on Thursday, you can. But you have to live with yourself.

StatWatch™: Nigel's Minutes

Earlier in the season I noted with surprise that Nigel Hayes was leading the Badgers in minutes. Surprisingly, it has persisted.

It is very unusual for a forward to lead the Badgers in minutes under Bo Ryan. The last player to do it was Mike Wilkinson in 2005. (Alando came close, but was narrowly edged out by Kam Taylor in both 2006 and 2007.

Right now, Hayes is leading with 76.7% of minutes played, followed by Kaminsky at 74.4% and then Gasser at 71%. Going into the season, I expected Gasser to be a guy who rarely left the floor. That may be the case in Big Ten play as Bo shortens his bench a bit, and when there will (probably?) be fewer blowouts with garbage time. But Koenig has been stealing time for both Gasser and Jackson, and I don't really expect that to stop either.

Still, I'm guessing Gasser plays more during the conference season, and that he'll have a good shot of surpassing Nigel and Frank for the team lead. It's something I'll be keeping an eye on.

Big Ten predictions

My Big Ten preview post is up over at Bucky's Fifth Quarter.

Wisconsin Sports Person of the Year 2014

I'm excited to announce that the winner of the 2014 Bart Torvik Wisconsin Sports Person of the Year is:

BO RYAN

Congratulations to Coach Ryan! This is the 13th year in a row that he has won the award.

Reached for comment, Coach Ryan said, "It's all about the players. But I can tell you that winning the Bart Torvik Wisconsin Sports Person of the Year is an honor that truly never gets old."

A-Rank final standings

I have finally got a chance to see every Big Ten team play, and several more than once so it is time to reveal the A-Rank predictions. First, a few observations. 

The Big Ten is not as talented as it it has been in the past couple years. This is still the Big Ten so there is plenty of talent, but it is not the clear cut best conference it has been. That was to be expected with the players who were were drafted or left early to follow NBA dreams (Stauskus, Vonleh, Payne, Harris, McGary, Robinson III, Ross, and Marble) and some other very good seniors graduating (Tim Frazier, Craft, Brust, Sheehey, Appling, Craword). Other than UW I don't see a team that looks to be playing a lot better than they did last season, but I see a bunch of teams that look worse. 

There are a fixed number of wins and losses in Big Ten play, so while several teams will be worse, they may have the same record due to the addition of Rutgers who looks awful. They will lose enough games to boost the other team's records. Maryland will be a good team, but not so good they balance out all the Rutgers losses. There is a remarkable balance of decent teams in the Big Ten and I almost decided to predict UW as champ and every other team except PSU, NW and Rutgers at 9-9.  This should lead to a lot of entertaining games, and a lot of teams on the bubble in March. 

The Big Ten has a very good group of freshman. With all the players leaving last season there are plenty of opportunities for young kids to play and several have taken advantage. The future is bright for the Big Ten as most of these kids look like they will play at least 2-3 years. The point guards have been especially impressive with several already starting or playing major minutes (Trimble, Robert Johnson, Nairn Jr, Nate Mason, Shep Garner, McIntosh, Tarin Smith). The star power is at the wing with Russell and Blackmon who are the leading contenders for Freshman of the year. Kam Williams and Chatman also look like future star scorers. There are few freshman big men and most are on Purdue with Haas and Edwards looking the best. There are a lot more freshman who may not put up big numbers, but will get very important minutes and have a chance to make a jump next year. 

On to the predictions.

UW- I was torn here but finally decided to go with 15-3. I almost went 16-2 because they get NW, PSU, Iowa, Minn, and Nebraska twice, but three of the singles are road games against MI, OSU, and Maryland. 

OSU- Hard to read as they have blown out a lot of bad teams, but I still think they are the leagues 2nd best team. The schedule gives them winnable single road games @NW and @PSU, and allows them to avoid @UW, @Nebraska, and @Maryland. 13-5

MSU- This might be the worst MSU team since the Drew Neitzel era, but like those teams, Izzo just won't let them miss the tourney. 11-7

Maryland-If this team gets healthy I think they may be the surprise team in the Big Ten and challenge OSU. They have yet to play with a full deck, but everyone should be back eventually. They get Rutgers, PSU, Indiana, Nebraska, and MSU twice. If Trimble, Wells, Layman, and Smotrycz all play they have 4 scorers. 10-8. 

MI- A lot of people are off the MI bandwagon ad predicting disaster after the consecutive home losses to NJIT, and EMU. This team lost a lot the last 2 years but the cupboard is not bare. Defense will be a problem all season, but they have enough scorers to win games. 9-9

Iowa- This team is not as good as last year's team, but a weaker Big Ten allows them to hold at 9-9. 

Illinois- I like the young kids on this team to step up and give this team a 2 game improvement over last season. 9-9

Nebraska- They had a magical run to finish the season and make the NCAA last year, but they will not surprise anyone this year. 9-9.

Indiana- I have softened on IU after seeing them play with the 3 returned players who were suspended. They are still bad defensively, but not as bad as I first thought. 9-9. 

Minnesota- I really like that Mason kid, but this team doesn't look any better than last years team. 8-10. 

Purdue- I like the young players on this team to help them improve over last year's disastrous 5-13 season. I won't be shocked if this team makes a tournament run. 8-10. 

PSU- Newbill will get hot and chuck this team into an upset or 2, and they'll win some home games against the mediocre middle of the Big Ten. 6-12

Northwestern- I hope I don't see any game they play other than the UW games. In addition to being bad they play UW, MSU, Iowa, MI and IL twice, Rutgers and PSU only once. 5-13

Rutgers- Also don't want to watch this team play again. 5-13

Good day for T-Rank

I gather there was some news on the Badger football front yesterday, but I was too busy watching college basketball to care.

Last night set up an unusual situation for T-Rank: it picked against Vegas in the top two TTQ games on the schedule: Kansas at Georgetown (-2) and Utah at BYU (-2.5). Contrary to those Vegas lines, T-Rank picked both road underdogs to win, Kansas by 1 and Utah by 3. And they did (by 5 and 4, respectively). So that was nice.