The bracket for the Badgers' Thanksgiving Week tournament (the Battle 4 Atlantis, brought to you by Prince, apparently) was just released, and it looks like this:
1 UW (4) v. UAB (243)
2 Georgetown (49) v. Florida (9)
3 UCLA (43) v. Oklahoma (16)
4 UNC (7) v. Butler (35)
This is a well-crafted bracket. In fact these are exactly the matchups I "predicted" except that I would have switched games 2 and 3 (so that UCLA and Oklahoma were on UW's side of the bracket).
The numbers in parentheses above are the teams' current T-Rank projection. The top of the bracket is incredible: Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida should be Final Four contenders again. But even beyond that, 7 of the 8 teams are in the T-Rank top 50. The one exception is UAB, the Badgers' first-round opponent.
UAB was a mediocre team last year, finishing in the middle of the pack in Conference USA. They did upset North Carolina during the non-conference schedule, but that was the highlight of their season by far. Unfortunately, they lose pretty much every major contributor. Five seniors graduate, but the gut-punch is that their leading scorer, junior Chad Frazier, is leaving the team after being charged with domestic assault. Before that news came down, T-Rank had projected at 183—not good, but not terrible either. Now they've fallen to 243, and it looks like a lost season ahead. The matchup against Wisconsin figures to be something like a 1 versus 16 seed, and unless there are some real ballers waiting in the wings (they do have one borderline top-100 recruit coming in, William Lee), UAB looks like the Atlantis tournament's version of Chaminade.
Butler may be the most difficult team to get a handle on, and their T-Rank of 35 looks to be too high. They were not good last year (Kenpom rank: 104), but they also suffered one of the most critical injury losses in the nation, when Roosevelt Jones went down just before the season started. Assuming he returns at full strength, they'll have a nucleus of quality players to work with. So T-Rank expects a bounce back. But their unproven coach and loss of promising freshman Elijah Brown to the transfer bug (he went to New Mexico) leaves plenty of question marks.
OU appears to be on the way up under Lon Kruger. They were a 5-seed last year and got upset by North Dakota State. But Kruger has made progress in each of his three years with the program, which he took over after Jeff Capel ran it into the ground. It shouldn't surprise anyone if their upward climb continues next year, as they return about 80% of the minutes from last year's very solid team. They could easily makes the finals of this tournament.
OU's first-round opponent, UCLA, returns only about a third of its minutes from last year's team, after losing two seniors and three underclassmen (including the seldom-used Zach Levine) to the pros. They hope to reload with another stellar recruiting class, headlined by Milwaukee's Kevon Looney. But they figure to experience some growing pains early in the season.
Georgetown comes off a very disappointing 2013-14 season, and they lose about half their minutes to graduation. They do bring a strong four-man freshman class headed by Isaac Copeland, and maybe former UCLA five-star recruit Josh Smith will actually suit up for them this year. There is enough talent in the program to get back to the tournament, but they are far from a sure thing.
This should be an entertaining and wide-open tournament. The Badgers will have the best chance to win it, primarily because they get by far the easiest opening game. I'm hoping for another game against Florida (it would be cool to have a neutral-court rubber match against them) and then a neutral-court grudge match again Ol' Roy and his boys, followed up with Duke's visit to the Kohl Center the following week. It would be pretty sweet to see the Badgers play Florida, North Carolina, and Duke in a 7-day span. Even sweeter to sweep them.
Tuesday, August 5, 2014
Monday, August 4, 2014
Badgers Highly Hyped
It's still a few months until college basketball season begins, but this year's Badger team is (justifiably) getting a lot of hype. Today's entry is a cbssports.com article based on a poll of college coaches that asked them, "Which NCAA player would you take over all others?"
Here are the results:
Number two on the list is Duke's incoming freshman center Jahlil Okafor. Duke, of course, comes to Madison to play the Badgers on December 3rd. Should be a great matchup—though I have a feeling Dekker may steal the show.
Here are the results:
- Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin): 17 percent
- Jahlil Okafor (Duke): 16 percent
- Fred VanVleet (Wichita State): 15 percent
- Marcus Paige (North Carolina): 10 percent
- Montrezl Harrell (Louisville): 7 percent
- Sam Dekker (Wisconsin): 5 percent
Number two on the list is Duke's incoming freshman center Jahlil Okafor. Duke, of course, comes to Madison to play the Badgers on December 3rd. Should be a great matchup—though I have a feeling Dekker may steal the show.
With Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State all looking to be in a bit of a rebuilding mode this year, anything less than a conference championship next year would be a disappointment. Is that unreasonable?
Favre
The scuttlebutt is that Brett Favre will be inducted into the Packers Hall of Fame this year, and that his number will be retired. Great news. Hopefully any Packer fans who still hold a grudge against Favre can use this opportunity to move on. Hug it out, people.
Friday, July 25, 2014
Conversations with Doug Melvin's Moustache.
to begin: because it's long, I'll put this post in a nutshell. Q:"Who do you think Doug Melvin and the Brewers will acquire at the MLB trade deadline? A:"A guy whose name is in all caps near the end of the post" Discuss. For the brave amongst you who are interested in drug influenced conversations with a General Manager's moustache, by all means, Plow Ahead.
It's the end of July. We're less than a week away from the trade deadline, that arbitrary demarcation of sink or swim for MLB franchises. In America's Pastime, to buy or to sell, that is the question. It's quite the decision for many franchises this year. In fact, without checking the rest of the internets and relying entirely on my own swiss cheese memory, I can't remember a year with so many teams hovering on either side of .500, nor a year with absolutely no definitively dominant team. (Who is it? Oakland? Name a great hitter in that lineup. The Dodgers? Not even first in their own division. I like the makeup of the Nats and Angels, but they've got flaws too)
So, in a year full of so much parity, there ought to be a lot of teams confused as to whether or not they are buyers or sellers. Several bad teams may consider themselves a solid #2 starter or a big stick away from the World Series. These factors should lead to several bigger than usual-type trades. Trades which will undoubtedly change the futures of franchises in the decade to come. All caused by the pressure of that July 31 deadline, and the imagined outcomes of thousands of possible BABIPS and WARS. Wax on, Wax off.
So... what does any of this mean for our semi-beloved Milwaukee Brewer franchise? What types of hypotheticals are being filtered through Doug Melvin's moustache?
DM:I'll tell you one thing, Mr.Sanchez, this Brewer team is rather firmly entrenched in first place. This is not a place we are accustomed to. I understand mediocrity. I understand the beauty of the struggle. I understand the raisin in the sun. But I am not sure I'm ready to handle the luster of this particular pot of gold. How did we get here? Where will we go? Does it matter?
DMM:"Don't freak out Doug Melvin. For God's sake man, you have TWO FIRST NAMES! As your lip sweater, I advise you to remember the last time we did this peyote thing. It was last year, on our Southwestern road swing, where you finally saw the same vision that I have always had tucked in between my whiskers- Starting Pitching wins Championships. Always has. Always will. That was a good day. Those Enchiladas were delicious. I still have some Salsa Verde over here in the left hand corner nook. Doug, you ask how we got here. We got here mostly through building a pitching staff of mostly solid, #2 type, veteran, starting pitchers. Lohse and Garza have been very good additions- you done good there Dougie. Oh yeah, and we also developed most of our offensive talent within our own system, and added a few exciting defensive players like GoGo and Segura. Not to mention, it doesn't hurt having your best players like Braun, Lucroy and Gomez hitting their primes at the same time. Not to stress you out, but where we go from here, and if it matters or not, might just have a little bit to do with what you choose to do here at the trade deadline. Bottom line Doug, we're in first place in the division. First Place! The Brewers! Best record in the National League! Facts!"
Oh jeez. Heavy hangs the crown. Yeah, we're in first, but we just snuck through that rough patch which let the whole Central Division catch up to us. They ALL scare me- even the Cubs. You may not know this, as you are only a dirt squirrel, but human life can be quite filled with anxiety from time to time, and I can't always know for sure which way to go. The fans want me to be perfect. My wife wants me to be perfect. But I'm not. I'm Doug Melvin. Shouldn't I toss in all the chips, and go and get David Price? I hear he's available. I mean, that's what the internets tell me. If you yourself, my household pet which I stow aboard my upper lip, taught me that Starting Pitching wins championships, shouldn't I go trade for the best guy out there... I mean come on you little fanny duster, this is MILWAUKEE, we have a shot at a CHAMPIONSHIP this year! This is beyond once in a generation! This is my LEGACY!
"Relax Doug Melvin. Aren't you Canadian? You remind me of Larry David in that one sketch except he's bald and you have ME on your not very staunch upper lip. You seem so laconic in your interviews with ROCK and MOM JEANS. Maybe that's because you let me take over and do the talking. Jesus, we need to go find some Valium for you to balance this ship. Anyway, let me, your crumb catcher, assuage your fears, and KNOCK SOME COMMON SENSE INTO THAT THICK SKULL OF YOURS! Just kidding there buddy.
OK, first things first. Stop worrying about the NL Central: The Cubs suck, and won't be any good for a couple years. The Reds have some decent starting pitching, but they have injuries across the board, including notorious Brewer Killer Brandon Phillips, and their best player, Joey Votto. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out for the rest of 2014. They also can't hit right handed pitching, and our starters all happen to be right handed.
Sure, the Cardinals seem to be our nemeses year in and year out, and although you can't ever count them out, they are having a rough year. Their two best hitters, Matt Holiday and Allen Craig have both declined this year. More like fell off two cliffs. The whole team is striking out a ton, even sometimes on 4-2 counts, and can't hit for power. And they lost the straw that stirs the drink, Yadier Molina, for most of the regular season. We play them a lot down the stretch, so here's to controlling our own destiny in that regard.
The Pirates scare me a little, but only in the way the Elephant is frightened by the mouse. They've got a lot of speed and some pop in that lineup, but no real power other than McCutcheon and Alvarez- that latter has really underperformed this year. Their pitching, however, has Overperformed all year, getting solid numbers out of guys like Morton and Volquez. They don't have a true ace, unless you count Liriano, he of the 2 wins and mid 4 ERA. However, last year, they were willing to spend on guys like Byrd and Morneau down the stretch, to help put them in the playoffs. So, if they were to go all in and mortgage some future for a guy like David Price, and another someone like AJ Burnett- who is familiar and soft and warm and broken in like your wife's love mitten... well, then we might have something to be worried about.
But that's a lotta what if's Doug Melvin, and I, your Lower Brow, do not deal in other team's whatifs. We deal in our team's whatifs, Doug Melvin, and you seem to be hung up on David Price, as are a lot of teams, as he's really the only difference making arm out on the market. Here's the deal- Unless Tampa Bay receives a Godfather offer for him, they aren't moving him. They've won seven straight, and are right in the middle of the playoff hunt, so Price is likely going nowhere. Even if he is, it's not to Milwaukee. Let's be honest, the minor league cupboards are pretty bare.
DON'T HANG YOUR HEAD LIKE THAT DOUG MELVIN, I can see your gut, but not your shoes! Empty minor league cupboards are what happens when your major league ones are so damn full! Did I tell you lately how much I appreciate the advice you gave Roenicke about the Gennett/Weeks platoon? That thing is really working out. That shirt looks great on you. The vertical stripes are VERY slimming. Oh boy... this pep talk is taking a turn for the worse. Well, why don't you and I go soak your minor league sorrows in a pint, old buddy."
(Two bars & six pints later) Alright Mustache, you have again showed me the error of my ways, mainly by just clinging there to my upper lip through the thick and thin. I can see we're in a pretty good way right now, and I should just enjoy the ride, not just be focused on rampant and delusional self-improvement of my baseball team as a manifestation of my own mortality... and rather short penis. I mean, HEY, we're in first place! FIRST PLACE! FUCK YEAH, TIME TO GO PLAY AMERICAN PIE ON THE JUKE BOX. E-4!
"DOUG, DOUG! That is not a "Juke Box". That is a woman. Those are sequins, not buttons upon which to press E-4. E-4 is what Ricky used to make a lot of before he fell into his destiny as a platoon player. That is a liverwurst sandwich, Doug. Her liverwurst sandwich. Don't take a bite... aw Jeez Doug. Hey Buddy, let's go sit down at the bar and finish talking about what to do at the trade deadline this year. DOUG, DOUG!, let's make an honest assessment of our strengths and weaknesses, and distinguish between our needs and wants."
You're such a frickin' adult sometimes, you Mouth Mirkin, but more often than not... you're right. To be honest... we really don't need much this year. We've got 4 solid starters, each who can dominate on any given night, each who can pitch deep into ballgames. A couple are power pitchers which always plays well in the playoffs. Our lineup is solid, and Roenicke has tinkered with it pretty well, putting hot hitters at different slots in the lineup. Shit, he had Brauny hitting at 2,5 and finally back to 3, all within a week. Yikes! Before the PEDs, that never would have happened. Lucroy is a legit MVP Candidate, and just so Solid on defense. GoGo is still a knucklehead, but he's our knucklehead, and damn if I wasn't right on getting him locked up longterm before he became an All-Star. Speaking of All-Stars, I don't know how Ramirez got to start in the midsummer classic, but let me put it this way, I'm darn glad he's playing in a contract year. I'd like to joke about Jean and his many 6-3 groundouts this year, but there's just no way there's anything funny about a guy losing a kid. He's played good D and is hitting the ball well to opposite field as of late. Khris Davis is Krushing the ball much better than the non-stripper Chris Davis in Baltimore. Heck, even the two-headed Overeynolds is hitting better than that Chris Davis. Unlike him, I think our platoon has over 20 homers on the year, and is definitely hitting over .200. I bet you every sportswriter and blogger in Milwaukee would have had me trade for the other Chris Davis in the offseason, and NOW LOOK. EVERYONE LOOK! FEAST YOUR EYES!
You're starting to rant, Doug.
Sorry, Sorry. So, yeah, combine all that with the Weeks/Gennett platoon, and we're pretty solid on offense. Heck, if I'm honest with myself, I can see we could use an upgrade at 4th outfielder, and maybe a toolsy utility guy to back up Jean. Ben Zobrist comes to mind for both of those needs. Maybe I can get him on the cheap from the Rays and cover all our bases, proverbially speaking of course. Wait, you said the Rays aren't really likely to be selling now, and let's face it, they are more wants than needs, aren't they? Sometimes, you little Molestache, you say the most when you say nothing at all.
What about the bullpen? Aw, you know bullpens, they come and go like metamucil farts. But I gotta say, ours has been pretty darn good this year. Let's start with K-Rod. He wasn't even our closer in Spring Training, heck he was barely on our team. But he's like that girlfriend that keeps coming back, summer after summer, back for more of Dougie's Sugar. Look at him though- second in all of baseball in saves. And that's why you don't break the bank for closers. I'll tell you what-that Will Smith for Aoki trade looks darn nice, considering he might be a darn good lefthanded starter in the future, and he's more than served his purpose this year. Not to mention, Zach Duke. Have you looked at his ERA and WHIP? Are you kidding me? Zach Duke! I found him down in the Arizona Penal League. Where do you think we got these peyote buttons?
What about right handed relievers Doug? Well, the lefties have been getting righties out too, plus, we got Wooten and Kintzler and they've done a real good job for us this year.
No they haven't. They've both sucked. Well, that's just like your opinion, Man. And even if you're right, Henderson and Thornburg coming back from the DL real quick, and those are two guys we can count on. Not to mention the promise of Jeffers.
Are they really, Doug? A journeyman minor leaguer coming off shoulder problems, a second year kid with elbow trouble, and a guy who had the upside of a homeless man's Doc Gooden... before he himself had his own spate of drug problems. Sounds like several beacons of reliability. A handful of Old Faithfuls.
Sigh... When you're right, you're right, you little Cookie Duster. So, we finally get to it. We need a veteran right-hander out of the bullpen for the late innings. But here's the thing- to me, bullpens are a crapshoot. I mean we had a couple of lights out closers in Axford and Turnbow both turn South in a hurry like two-day old Chinese food. How do I know who to trust when all I've got is scouting reports, stats, advanced stats, and video of each and every pitch these guys have thrown in the past decade. It's tough to build a pair of shoes out of a couple of shoestrings.
Dougie Dougie Dougie. All I hear out of your mouth are excuses, and I'm hearing a lot of them here on my perch above your wordhole. You sound like a little baby chicken instead of the robust Walrus everyone can see that you are. You know what you need to do Dougie, and you're not even going to have to step out of your comfort zone to do it. Are you ready? Two words for you- LaTROY... HAWKINS. Just rest for a minute in that little thoughterfall.
You little Son of a Selleck. You've done it again. That makes so much sense it's almost too much sense. He's pitching for a horrible team, in a bad park for pitchers out there in Colorado, yet he's still got a serviceable ERA, solid peripherals, and 17 saves. He's been pitching well, the old codger. Did you know that he and I have remained pen pals since his days with the Brewers? We use the only remaining Pony Express rider, a 103-year old guy named Lightning Jack who carries our parcels back and forth on his Donkey named Stan. Nice Fella, that guy. But yeah, it'd be nice to have LaTroy back. The Rockies are bad, and not going anywhere fast, so it's likely a 41 year old closer doesn't fit too tightly into their plans. He sure would look good in the late innings for us. He pitched real well for us back in 2011, the last year we had a shot to go anywhere. So, I'm comfortable with his track record. You know how it is, you old soup strainer, I can't seem to quit "my guys". Guys like Doug Davis, Yuniesky Betancourt, and K-Rod... I like to give them a second time on the wagon. Now that you've mentioned it, THIS team WITHOUT Latroy Hawkins on it would look a little like my face without you on it.
"Gotta tell you Dougie, I'm not quite sure how to take that last thing you just said. So, I'm just going to hope it's the last nubbin of the peyote talking. By the way, I'm pretty sure Yuni B is available, as he's just over a little sea, playing in Japan... and we do need a utility man... just saying."
(Full disclosure: the author met Doug Melvin in Boston on a roadtrip to Fenway a few years back. He's nothing like the indecisive peyotehead represented here. Except for the Canadian stuff.)
It's the end of July. We're less than a week away from the trade deadline, that arbitrary demarcation of sink or swim for MLB franchises. In America's Pastime, to buy or to sell, that is the question. It's quite the decision for many franchises this year. In fact, without checking the rest of the internets and relying entirely on my own swiss cheese memory, I can't remember a year with so many teams hovering on either side of .500, nor a year with absolutely no definitively dominant team. (Who is it? Oakland? Name a great hitter in that lineup. The Dodgers? Not even first in their own division. I like the makeup of the Nats and Angels, but they've got flaws too)
So, in a year full of so much parity, there ought to be a lot of teams confused as to whether or not they are buyers or sellers. Several bad teams may consider themselves a solid #2 starter or a big stick away from the World Series. These factors should lead to several bigger than usual-type trades. Trades which will undoubtedly change the futures of franchises in the decade to come. All caused by the pressure of that July 31 deadline, and the imagined outcomes of thousands of possible BABIPS and WARS. Wax on, Wax off.
So... what does any of this mean for our semi-beloved Milwaukee Brewer franchise? What types of hypotheticals are being filtered through Doug Melvin's moustache?
If I'm Doug Melvin's lip foliage, I'm high on a few peyote buttons, thinking in several different directions at once, and trying to calm down a rather frantic Doug Melvin.
DM:I'll tell you one thing, Mr.Sanchez, this Brewer team is rather firmly entrenched in first place. This is not a place we are accustomed to. I understand mediocrity. I understand the beauty of the struggle. I understand the raisin in the sun. But I am not sure I'm ready to handle the luster of this particular pot of gold. How did we get here? Where will we go? Does it matter?
DMM:"Don't freak out Doug Melvin. For God's sake man, you have TWO FIRST NAMES! As your lip sweater, I advise you to remember the last time we did this peyote thing. It was last year, on our Southwestern road swing, where you finally saw the same vision that I have always had tucked in between my whiskers- Starting Pitching wins Championships. Always has. Always will. That was a good day. Those Enchiladas were delicious. I still have some Salsa Verde over here in the left hand corner nook. Doug, you ask how we got here. We got here mostly through building a pitching staff of mostly solid, #2 type, veteran, starting pitchers. Lohse and Garza have been very good additions- you done good there Dougie. Oh yeah, and we also developed most of our offensive talent within our own system, and added a few exciting defensive players like GoGo and Segura. Not to mention, it doesn't hurt having your best players like Braun, Lucroy and Gomez hitting their primes at the same time. Not to stress you out, but where we go from here, and if it matters or not, might just have a little bit to do with what you choose to do here at the trade deadline. Bottom line Doug, we're in first place in the division. First Place! The Brewers! Best record in the National League! Facts!"
Oh jeez. Heavy hangs the crown. Yeah, we're in first, but we just snuck through that rough patch which let the whole Central Division catch up to us. They ALL scare me- even the Cubs. You may not know this, as you are only a dirt squirrel, but human life can be quite filled with anxiety from time to time, and I can't always know for sure which way to go. The fans want me to be perfect. My wife wants me to be perfect. But I'm not. I'm Doug Melvin. Shouldn't I toss in all the chips, and go and get David Price? I hear he's available. I mean, that's what the internets tell me. If you yourself, my household pet which I stow aboard my upper lip, taught me that Starting Pitching wins championships, shouldn't I go trade for the best guy out there... I mean come on you little fanny duster, this is MILWAUKEE, we have a shot at a CHAMPIONSHIP this year! This is beyond once in a generation! This is my LEGACY!
"Relax Doug Melvin. Aren't you Canadian? You remind me of Larry David in that one sketch except he's bald and you have ME on your not very staunch upper lip. You seem so laconic in your interviews with ROCK and MOM JEANS. Maybe that's because you let me take over and do the talking. Jesus, we need to go find some Valium for you to balance this ship. Anyway, let me, your crumb catcher, assuage your fears, and KNOCK SOME COMMON SENSE INTO THAT THICK SKULL OF YOURS! Just kidding there buddy.
OK, first things first. Stop worrying about the NL Central: The Cubs suck, and won't be any good for a couple years. The Reds have some decent starting pitching, but they have injuries across the board, including notorious Brewer Killer Brandon Phillips, and their best player, Joey Votto. I wouldn't be surprised if he's out for the rest of 2014. They also can't hit right handed pitching, and our starters all happen to be right handed.
Sure, the Cardinals seem to be our nemeses year in and year out, and although you can't ever count them out, they are having a rough year. Their two best hitters, Matt Holiday and Allen Craig have both declined this year. More like fell off two cliffs. The whole team is striking out a ton, even sometimes on 4-2 counts, and can't hit for power. And they lost the straw that stirs the drink, Yadier Molina, for most of the regular season. We play them a lot down the stretch, so here's to controlling our own destiny in that regard.
The Pirates scare me a little, but only in the way the Elephant is frightened by the mouse. They've got a lot of speed and some pop in that lineup, but no real power other than McCutcheon and Alvarez- that latter has really underperformed this year. Their pitching, however, has Overperformed all year, getting solid numbers out of guys like Morton and Volquez. They don't have a true ace, unless you count Liriano, he of the 2 wins and mid 4 ERA. However, last year, they were willing to spend on guys like Byrd and Morneau down the stretch, to help put them in the playoffs. So, if they were to go all in and mortgage some future for a guy like David Price, and another someone like AJ Burnett- who is familiar and soft and warm and broken in like your wife's love mitten... well, then we might have something to be worried about.
But that's a lotta what if's Doug Melvin, and I, your Lower Brow, do not deal in other team's whatifs. We deal in our team's whatifs, Doug Melvin, and you seem to be hung up on David Price, as are a lot of teams, as he's really the only difference making arm out on the market. Here's the deal- Unless Tampa Bay receives a Godfather offer for him, they aren't moving him. They've won seven straight, and are right in the middle of the playoff hunt, so Price is likely going nowhere. Even if he is, it's not to Milwaukee. Let's be honest, the minor league cupboards are pretty bare.
DON'T HANG YOUR HEAD LIKE THAT DOUG MELVIN, I can see your gut, but not your shoes! Empty minor league cupboards are what happens when your major league ones are so damn full! Did I tell you lately how much I appreciate the advice you gave Roenicke about the Gennett/Weeks platoon? That thing is really working out. That shirt looks great on you. The vertical stripes are VERY slimming. Oh boy... this pep talk is taking a turn for the worse. Well, why don't you and I go soak your minor league sorrows in a pint, old buddy."
(Two bars & six pints later) Alright Mustache, you have again showed me the error of my ways, mainly by just clinging there to my upper lip through the thick and thin. I can see we're in a pretty good way right now, and I should just enjoy the ride, not just be focused on rampant and delusional self-improvement of my baseball team as a manifestation of my own mortality... and rather short penis. I mean, HEY, we're in first place! FIRST PLACE! FUCK YEAH, TIME TO GO PLAY AMERICAN PIE ON THE JUKE BOX. E-4!
"DOUG, DOUG! That is not a "Juke Box". That is a woman. Those are sequins, not buttons upon which to press E-4. E-4 is what Ricky used to make a lot of before he fell into his destiny as a platoon player. That is a liverwurst sandwich, Doug. Her liverwurst sandwich. Don't take a bite... aw Jeez Doug. Hey Buddy, let's go sit down at the bar and finish talking about what to do at the trade deadline this year. DOUG, DOUG!, let's make an honest assessment of our strengths and weaknesses, and distinguish between our needs and wants."
You're such a frickin' adult sometimes, you Mouth Mirkin, but more often than not... you're right. To be honest... we really don't need much this year. We've got 4 solid starters, each who can dominate on any given night, each who can pitch deep into ballgames. A couple are power pitchers which always plays well in the playoffs. Our lineup is solid, and Roenicke has tinkered with it pretty well, putting hot hitters at different slots in the lineup. Shit, he had Brauny hitting at 2,5 and finally back to 3, all within a week. Yikes! Before the PEDs, that never would have happened. Lucroy is a legit MVP Candidate, and just so Solid on defense. GoGo is still a knucklehead, but he's our knucklehead, and damn if I wasn't right on getting him locked up longterm before he became an All-Star. Speaking of All-Stars, I don't know how Ramirez got to start in the midsummer classic, but let me put it this way, I'm darn glad he's playing in a contract year. I'd like to joke about Jean and his many 6-3 groundouts this year, but there's just no way there's anything funny about a guy losing a kid. He's played good D and is hitting the ball well to opposite field as of late. Khris Davis is Krushing the ball much better than the non-stripper Chris Davis in Baltimore. Heck, even the two-headed Overeynolds is hitting better than that Chris Davis. Unlike him, I think our platoon has over 20 homers on the year, and is definitely hitting over .200. I bet you every sportswriter and blogger in Milwaukee would have had me trade for the other Chris Davis in the offseason, and NOW LOOK. EVERYONE LOOK! FEAST YOUR EYES!
You're starting to rant, Doug.
Sorry, Sorry. So, yeah, combine all that with the Weeks/Gennett platoon, and we're pretty solid on offense. Heck, if I'm honest with myself, I can see we could use an upgrade at 4th outfielder, and maybe a toolsy utility guy to back up Jean. Ben Zobrist comes to mind for both of those needs. Maybe I can get him on the cheap from the Rays and cover all our bases, proverbially speaking of course. Wait, you said the Rays aren't really likely to be selling now, and let's face it, they are more wants than needs, aren't they? Sometimes, you little Molestache, you say the most when you say nothing at all.
What about the bullpen? Aw, you know bullpens, they come and go like metamucil farts. But I gotta say, ours has been pretty darn good this year. Let's start with K-Rod. He wasn't even our closer in Spring Training, heck he was barely on our team. But he's like that girlfriend that keeps coming back, summer after summer, back for more of Dougie's Sugar. Look at him though- second in all of baseball in saves. And that's why you don't break the bank for closers. I'll tell you what-that Will Smith for Aoki trade looks darn nice, considering he might be a darn good lefthanded starter in the future, and he's more than served his purpose this year. Not to mention, Zach Duke. Have you looked at his ERA and WHIP? Are you kidding me? Zach Duke! I found him down in the Arizona Penal League. Where do you think we got these peyote buttons?
What about right handed relievers Doug? Well, the lefties have been getting righties out too, plus, we got Wooten and Kintzler and they've done a real good job for us this year.
No they haven't. They've both sucked. Well, that's just like your opinion, Man. And even if you're right, Henderson and Thornburg coming back from the DL real quick, and those are two guys we can count on. Not to mention the promise of Jeffers.
Are they really, Doug? A journeyman minor leaguer coming off shoulder problems, a second year kid with elbow trouble, and a guy who had the upside of a homeless man's Doc Gooden... before he himself had his own spate of drug problems. Sounds like several beacons of reliability. A handful of Old Faithfuls.
Sigh... When you're right, you're right, you little Cookie Duster. So, we finally get to it. We need a veteran right-hander out of the bullpen for the late innings. But here's the thing- to me, bullpens are a crapshoot. I mean we had a couple of lights out closers in Axford and Turnbow both turn South in a hurry like two-day old Chinese food. How do I know who to trust when all I've got is scouting reports, stats, advanced stats, and video of each and every pitch these guys have thrown in the past decade. It's tough to build a pair of shoes out of a couple of shoestrings.
Dougie Dougie Dougie. All I hear out of your mouth are excuses, and I'm hearing a lot of them here on my perch above your wordhole. You sound like a little baby chicken instead of the robust Walrus everyone can see that you are. You know what you need to do Dougie, and you're not even going to have to step out of your comfort zone to do it. Are you ready? Two words for you- LaTROY... HAWKINS. Just rest for a minute in that little thoughterfall.
You little Son of a Selleck. You've done it again. That makes so much sense it's almost too much sense. He's pitching for a horrible team, in a bad park for pitchers out there in Colorado, yet he's still got a serviceable ERA, solid peripherals, and 17 saves. He's been pitching well, the old codger. Did you know that he and I have remained pen pals since his days with the Brewers? We use the only remaining Pony Express rider, a 103-year old guy named Lightning Jack who carries our parcels back and forth on his Donkey named Stan. Nice Fella, that guy. But yeah, it'd be nice to have LaTroy back. The Rockies are bad, and not going anywhere fast, so it's likely a 41 year old closer doesn't fit too tightly into their plans. He sure would look good in the late innings for us. He pitched real well for us back in 2011, the last year we had a shot to go anywhere. So, I'm comfortable with his track record. You know how it is, you old soup strainer, I can't seem to quit "my guys". Guys like Doug Davis, Yuniesky Betancourt, and K-Rod... I like to give them a second time on the wagon. Now that you've mentioned it, THIS team WITHOUT Latroy Hawkins on it would look a little like my face without you on it.
"Gotta tell you Dougie, I'm not quite sure how to take that last thing you just said. So, I'm just going to hope it's the last nubbin of the peyote talking. By the way, I'm pretty sure Yuni B is available, as he's just over a little sea, playing in Japan... and we do need a utility man... just saying."
(Full disclosure: the author met Doug Melvin in Boston on a roadtrip to Fenway a few years back. He's nothing like the indecisive peyotehead represented here. Except for the Canadian stuff.)
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
2 year opt outs
I expect to see a lot of 2-year opt outs in the NBA contracts that will be signed later this week. There are two reasons for that, which are related. This will hopefully be good for the Bucks (more on that later).
The first is that the TV contracts for the NBA expire at that point, and if NBA ratings continue to go up there will be a large increase in revenue to the league. With the new CBA, 50% of that revenue goes to the players (down from about 57% in the previous CBA), meaning there could be a sizable increase in the salary cap for that season. The other reason is Lebron, as pretty much everything in the NBA is about Lebron.
I expect Lebron to resign with the Heat for a large contract but with a likely 2-year opt out. Lebron can get money anywhere he wants to go, but he also wants to win championships. He has a clear path to the finals with the Big 3 in a weak Eastern Conference so Miami just makes sense in the short run. Lebron knows about the TV money too, but that is probably less a factor in his decision than Wade’s knees. Does Wade have another season or two of elite level play, even if it is for only 50 regular season games and the playoffs? Probably. Does Wade have 4-5 more seasons of elite level play? Probably not. The 2-year opt out combined with the salary cap increase gives Lebron a chance to opt out and move on if needed, as well as opening the number of options he has due to the salary cap increase.
The Bucks should be in a decent position to take advantage of this, should it happen. The Bucks have 4 players with significant contracts expiring in 2 years (Ilyasova, Mayo, Pachullia, and Henson’s rookie deal). I don’t expect the Bucks to be able to bring in any big free agents with all that open cap space. However. the Bucks may be able to take advantage of a team desperate to clear space for a shot at Lebron. With about 25 million in expiring contracts the Bucks will have flexibility to move them for a quality player(s) on long term deal.
The first is that the TV contracts for the NBA expire at that point, and if NBA ratings continue to go up there will be a large increase in revenue to the league. With the new CBA, 50% of that revenue goes to the players (down from about 57% in the previous CBA), meaning there could be a sizable increase in the salary cap for that season. The other reason is Lebron, as pretty much everything in the NBA is about Lebron.
I expect Lebron to resign with the Heat for a large contract but with a likely 2-year opt out. Lebron can get money anywhere he wants to go, but he also wants to win championships. He has a clear path to the finals with the Big 3 in a weak Eastern Conference so Miami just makes sense in the short run. Lebron knows about the TV money too, but that is probably less a factor in his decision than Wade’s knees. Does Wade have another season or two of elite level play, even if it is for only 50 regular season games and the playoffs? Probably. Does Wade have 4-5 more seasons of elite level play? Probably not. The 2-year opt out combined with the salary cap increase gives Lebron a chance to opt out and move on if needed, as well as opening the number of options he has due to the salary cap increase.
The Bucks should be in a decent position to take advantage of this, should it happen. The Bucks have 4 players with significant contracts expiring in 2 years (Ilyasova, Mayo, Pachullia, and Henson’s rookie deal). I don’t expect the Bucks to be able to bring in any big free agents with all that open cap space. However. the Bucks may be able to take advantage of a team desperate to clear space for a shot at Lebron. With about 25 million in expiring contracts the Bucks will have flexibility to move them for a quality player(s) on long term deal.
Monday, July 7, 2014
If you could choose any college basketball team to be a fan of, which would it be?
Fandom is strange in that, like your family, you really don't get a choice. True fandom is something that just happens to you—usually by inheritance, but sometimes by happenstance or osmosis. I submit that if you chose to be a fan of some team, then you aren't really a fan. (To put it bluntly, you're an asshole.)
Anyhow, what if you could choose? You'd want to choose a winner, obviously. And you'd probably want to choose a clean program with a likeable coach, preferably one who will be around for a good long time. I think you'd want to choose a program that gets top recruits, since following recruiting is kind of its own fun thing.
After the Badgers beat Arizona last year and Sean Miller gushed about how happy he was for Bo, I got a little emotional and declared some secondary allegiance to Arizona. I meant it at the time, but I doubt it will stick. We'll see. But if I could choose to be a fan of a team, Arizona would certainly be a finalist. They have a great young coach, get top recruits, and seem poised to head to multiple final fours, if not win national titles, in the coming years.
But I think there's an even better program you could choose: Kansas. Bill Self is still just 52 years old, and there's no reason to think he's going anywhere, ever. They've got tradition, and they're the only game in town. I guess the only reason not to be a Kansas fan is that the expectations would be so high every year. Anything less than a final four is probably equivalent to the Badgers losing in the first round. But, still, I'd take Kansas.
What do you guys think?
Anyhow, what if you could choose? You'd want to choose a winner, obviously. And you'd probably want to choose a clean program with a likeable coach, preferably one who will be around for a good long time. I think you'd want to choose a program that gets top recruits, since following recruiting is kind of its own fun thing.
After the Badgers beat Arizona last year and Sean Miller gushed about how happy he was for Bo, I got a little emotional and declared some secondary allegiance to Arizona. I meant it at the time, but I doubt it will stick. We'll see. But if I could choose to be a fan of a team, Arizona would certainly be a finalist. They have a great young coach, get top recruits, and seem poised to head to multiple final fours, if not win national titles, in the coming years.
But I think there's an even better program you could choose: Kansas. Bill Self is still just 52 years old, and there's no reason to think he's going anywhere, ever. They've got tradition, and they're the only game in town. I guess the only reason not to be a Kansas fan is that the expectations would be so high every year. Anything less than a final four is probably equivalent to the Badgers losing in the first round. But, still, I'd take Kansas.
What do you guys think?
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Jason Kidd to the Bucks?
According to Twitter, Jason Kidd has been granted permission to talk to the Bucks about becoming their next coach AND GM.
Friday, June 27, 2014
The path forward
Having watched a lot of bad Bucks basketball over the past many years I have found there is only one way to stomach it. You have to be able to watch the young players and see a path where they could fit on a really good basketball team, otherwise watching a team lose over and over is just boring. There was a path when Bogut had a healthy elbow and Jennings was a 19 year old scoring point. There was even a path (maybe not to a really good team, but at least an entertaining one) when the Bucks paired Jennings with Ellis in the back court and had Sanders to block shots, letting everyone run and have fun. Obviously neither of those paths worked out because of Bogut's injury, and Ellis' agent was a idiot. Each failure usually leads to a new path, but last season's team was really a void. Even a Bucks optimist like me had trouble seeing how these kids were going to be quality starters on a good team someday, other than Giannis who was a long way away. With the addition of Parker I can start to see a new path. Here is my vision of what a hopeful fan sees as a path to sustained success.
Good NBA teams usually have a rotation of 7-8 really good players, and 3-4 other capable players that just fit what the team needs. A team like Miami that has 3 superstars can get away with having more of the capable players that just fit what they need. The Bucks are not likely to get 3 players of that caliber, so I will focus on a more traditional team rotation. If I'm being optimistic, there are currently 5 Bucks who could fit into a rotation someday, although most of them are young and not there yet. Some of them may never get there, but this is all about seeing a path, not predicting the future.
The path starts with the 2 forwards the Bucks have recently drafted, as you may have imagined. They are young so they still have lots of room to grow, and you can imagine how they may fit someday if they keep getting better. Not all youngsters are going to keep getting better, but again this is about a hopeful path. It starts with Parker and Giannis as the starting forwards. Giannis and Parker can both handle and shoot so they will put perimeter pressure on a defense. If they can defend you can see this duo being very successful for a long time. If they both turn out to be max contract guys, the Bucks will be able to keep them for their 4 year rookie contracts and probably for another 4-5 year deal when they hit restricted free agency. If they are able to have a successful 8 years together in Milwaukee, then maybe when they are 27 and hit unrestricted free agency the Bucks will be able to convince them to stay.
Center is another story. I was not a believer in Sanders as a center before last season and his combination of stupidity off the court and poor play when he was out there didn't improve my opinion. He signed a 4 year extension before last season at a reasonable starting center rate of about 10 million per year, but given his antics last year he seems unmoveable right now. All that said, I do think Sanders is a good enough player to be in the rotation of a playoff team. I don't like him as a starting center, unless he is teamed with another big. He could excel playing next to a Boozer like player, like Noah does in Chicago. Against good NBA bigs he gets bullied, and if the Bucks are going to have 2 smaller/perimeter type forwards I think they need a more traditional center to make up for the rebounding and physicality. My hope is that Sanders plays like his old self this season, and some team in love with modern metrics (who all seem to love Sanders) trades us a traditional center for him. So Sanders counts as one of the 5, but not one I see in the long term path.
The 2 guard position is mostly a void. Mayo and Delfino will hold down the fort at the 2 this year unless the Bucks are able to pull off a trade. Neither player will be with the Bucks past the lengths of their current contracts. My hope is that the Bucks hit a top pick in the Lottery next year and are able to draft a guard next year to fill in here long term.
Point guard is also not a great situation, but not as bad as the 2 spot. Knight came over in the Jennings trade and was supposed to be a more traditional point. When all the veteran Bucks got hurt and they went young (tanked) Knight was forced into a scoring point role. He did score 17.9 per game and shot a respectable and career best 42.2% from the floor, but his 3pt% dropped from 38.0 and 36.7 in his first 2 years to 32.5 last year. He is not a great play maker at the point, and he is a decent but not great defender, but he is only 22 entering his 4th season. He will be a restricted free agent after this year so the Bucks will have a decision to make about him. If he can go back to playing a more traditional point, and allow Parker to take on the scoring load he could be an effective starter. If he can shoot in the low 40s and hit 3s in the high 30s I can see a role for him in playoff caliber rotation. Not the highest praise, but that's what he is.
The last player of the 5 is Henson, who I had hoped would take a big jump last year given the opportunity for minutes with the youth movement. Just looking at the stats, he did get in more games, more starts, more points, more rebounds, and more blocks which all sounds pretty good. For whatever reason he still did not seize the opportunity to move in as a starter. Maybe that was the coaches, but Pachulia and Ilyasova played less than 55 games, and Sanders just 23. All 3 had one of their worst seasons as pros and still Henson couldn't get in there. Henson doesn't have youth on his side like Giannis as he was a polished college Junior when he was drafted and will be 24 this season. Nevertheless I see him in the Bucks path forward. I don't think he will be a starter, but I see him coming off the bench for major minutes. He is too slender to play with big starting centers, but off the bench he can play the 4 or 5 with a 2nd unit. I imagine him in a 5 man front court rotation with Giannis, Parker, and a true center to be determined with Henson and a wing to be determined coming off the bench.
The rest of the team is probably not going to be around long. Ilyasova and Pachulia will play out their contracts if the Bucks can't trade them. Middleton has some promise, but with the forwards the Bucks have invested in, he probably won't get an opportunity. Maybe the Bucks trade him for a backup guard or point so he gets a chance elsewhere. Wolters may have a chance to be one of the 3-4 capable players. I saw a stat about him on NBA.com that he had a 3.28 assist to turnover ratio, and a plus/minus for the entire season of -26. Considering that the Bucks were outscored by about 700 points this year and Wolters didn't just play in garbage time minutes that stat was interesting.
So that's the Bucks' much brighter future. A better but still bad season this year while Parker, and Giannis develop. They find a combo guard and a wing to come off the bench in free agency, or maybe a 2nd rounder develops. A trade of Sanders and a lottery guard in next years draft and they are off to 14 years of success. Just like that.
Good NBA teams usually have a rotation of 7-8 really good players, and 3-4 other capable players that just fit what the team needs. A team like Miami that has 3 superstars can get away with having more of the capable players that just fit what they need. The Bucks are not likely to get 3 players of that caliber, so I will focus on a more traditional team rotation. If I'm being optimistic, there are currently 5 Bucks who could fit into a rotation someday, although most of them are young and not there yet. Some of them may never get there, but this is all about seeing a path, not predicting the future.
The path starts with the 2 forwards the Bucks have recently drafted, as you may have imagined. They are young so they still have lots of room to grow, and you can imagine how they may fit someday if they keep getting better. Not all youngsters are going to keep getting better, but again this is about a hopeful path. It starts with Parker and Giannis as the starting forwards. Giannis and Parker can both handle and shoot so they will put perimeter pressure on a defense. If they can defend you can see this duo being very successful for a long time. If they both turn out to be max contract guys, the Bucks will be able to keep them for their 4 year rookie contracts and probably for another 4-5 year deal when they hit restricted free agency. If they are able to have a successful 8 years together in Milwaukee, then maybe when they are 27 and hit unrestricted free agency the Bucks will be able to convince them to stay.
Center is another story. I was not a believer in Sanders as a center before last season and his combination of stupidity off the court and poor play when he was out there didn't improve my opinion. He signed a 4 year extension before last season at a reasonable starting center rate of about 10 million per year, but given his antics last year he seems unmoveable right now. All that said, I do think Sanders is a good enough player to be in the rotation of a playoff team. I don't like him as a starting center, unless he is teamed with another big. He could excel playing next to a Boozer like player, like Noah does in Chicago. Against good NBA bigs he gets bullied, and if the Bucks are going to have 2 smaller/perimeter type forwards I think they need a more traditional center to make up for the rebounding and physicality. My hope is that Sanders plays like his old self this season, and some team in love with modern metrics (who all seem to love Sanders) trades us a traditional center for him. So Sanders counts as one of the 5, but not one I see in the long term path.
The 2 guard position is mostly a void. Mayo and Delfino will hold down the fort at the 2 this year unless the Bucks are able to pull off a trade. Neither player will be with the Bucks past the lengths of their current contracts. My hope is that the Bucks hit a top pick in the Lottery next year and are able to draft a guard next year to fill in here long term.
Point guard is also not a great situation, but not as bad as the 2 spot. Knight came over in the Jennings trade and was supposed to be a more traditional point. When all the veteran Bucks got hurt and they went young (tanked) Knight was forced into a scoring point role. He did score 17.9 per game and shot a respectable and career best 42.2% from the floor, but his 3pt% dropped from 38.0 and 36.7 in his first 2 years to 32.5 last year. He is not a great play maker at the point, and he is a decent but not great defender, but he is only 22 entering his 4th season. He will be a restricted free agent after this year so the Bucks will have a decision to make about him. If he can go back to playing a more traditional point, and allow Parker to take on the scoring load he could be an effective starter. If he can shoot in the low 40s and hit 3s in the high 30s I can see a role for him in playoff caliber rotation. Not the highest praise, but that's what he is.
The last player of the 5 is Henson, who I had hoped would take a big jump last year given the opportunity for minutes with the youth movement. Just looking at the stats, he did get in more games, more starts, more points, more rebounds, and more blocks which all sounds pretty good. For whatever reason he still did not seize the opportunity to move in as a starter. Maybe that was the coaches, but Pachulia and Ilyasova played less than 55 games, and Sanders just 23. All 3 had one of their worst seasons as pros and still Henson couldn't get in there. Henson doesn't have youth on his side like Giannis as he was a polished college Junior when he was drafted and will be 24 this season. Nevertheless I see him in the Bucks path forward. I don't think he will be a starter, but I see him coming off the bench for major minutes. He is too slender to play with big starting centers, but off the bench he can play the 4 or 5 with a 2nd unit. I imagine him in a 5 man front court rotation with Giannis, Parker, and a true center to be determined with Henson and a wing to be determined coming off the bench.
The rest of the team is probably not going to be around long. Ilyasova and Pachulia will play out their contracts if the Bucks can't trade them. Middleton has some promise, but with the forwards the Bucks have invested in, he probably won't get an opportunity. Maybe the Bucks trade him for a backup guard or point so he gets a chance elsewhere. Wolters may have a chance to be one of the 3-4 capable players. I saw a stat about him on NBA.com that he had a 3.28 assist to turnover ratio, and a plus/minus for the entire season of -26. Considering that the Bucks were outscored by about 700 points this year and Wolters didn't just play in garbage time minutes that stat was interesting.
So that's the Bucks' much brighter future. A better but still bad season this year while Parker, and Giannis develop. They find a combo guard and a wing to come off the bench in free agency, or maybe a 2nd rounder develops. A trade of Sanders and a lottery guard in next years draft and they are off to 14 years of success. Just like that.
Parker- 3 or 4
I'm home sick today so I will continue my comments on the Bucks' newest player. Parker played the 4-spot at Duke, but has been projected by most as a 3 in the NBA. This is typical as most players tend to shift down a spot from college to the pros unless they are a true center or a point guard. The same thing has been said about Wiggins being a 2 or 3 in the NBA. As players are coming out at 19 years old now, many are still developing and will start playing small and move into their natural position as their body matures and their game develops. The question about these guys is are they versatile, meaning they can play multiple positions effectively, or are the tweeners meaning they struggle no matter where you put them.
When it comes to determining a player's position in the NBA, there is a saying: you are what you can defend. One of the reasons I liked Wiggins over Parker was defense, and I feel Wiggins can play 2 or 3 because he can defend either position at the NBA level from day 1. In addition, with his athleticism he may be a guy who can guard 3 positions as his game develops. When you can guard multiple positions that allows your coach to play a lot of combinations around you, because you can always slide your better defender around. If you need more shooting, you slide him over to 3 and bring in a guard at 2. If you need more rebounding, you play him at 2 and let a bigger forward play the 3.
Parker should be able to score no matter where the Bucks play him. He was very effective at Duke playing in the post, and averaged 3 offensive rebounds per game. He was equally effective in transition and on the perimeter where he shot 36% from 3. We will see how he does against taller and more physical NBA defenders, but his all around offensive game leads one to think he will find a way to be effective. His body has led many to think he fits better as a 4 as he was listed at about 250lbs before the weight became a draft issue, and now he lists himself at 235. The fact he played the 4 at Duke and averaged 8.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game lends to the idea he can play the 4.
So what are the Bucks to do? Play him at the 3 where he can play on the perimeter more and take advantage of his shooting and play making skills, but may struggle against smaller quicker wings on defense? Do they play him at the 4 where he can take advantage of bigger players who have to respect his outside game but aren't as adept at guarding the perimeter, but let him take the physical pounding of guarding a 4. Think of who he will have to play. Would you rather see him matched up on Kevin Durant, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, or Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and Zach Randolph?
I think the answer will depend mostly on the development of the Greek Freak. Much of the Bucks' future will depend on the development of Giannis, who Bucks' management seems to be in love with. Giannis as a young 18 year old playing in the NBA had the look of a natural 3 with his ball handling and perimeter skills. At 6'9" he had the length and wing span you love at that position in combination with elite athletic ability. He, like Wiggins, has the potential to defend multiple positions and that may be the answer. If Giannis can guard the 3 or 4, Parker can guard the other. Hammond said as much in his pre-draft interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
When it comes to determining a player's position in the NBA, there is a saying: you are what you can defend. One of the reasons I liked Wiggins over Parker was defense, and I feel Wiggins can play 2 or 3 because he can defend either position at the NBA level from day 1. In addition, with his athleticism he may be a guy who can guard 3 positions as his game develops. When you can guard multiple positions that allows your coach to play a lot of combinations around you, because you can always slide your better defender around. If you need more shooting, you slide him over to 3 and bring in a guard at 2. If you need more rebounding, you play him at 2 and let a bigger forward play the 3.
Parker should be able to score no matter where the Bucks play him. He was very effective at Duke playing in the post, and averaged 3 offensive rebounds per game. He was equally effective in transition and on the perimeter where he shot 36% from 3. We will see how he does against taller and more physical NBA defenders, but his all around offensive game leads one to think he will find a way to be effective. His body has led many to think he fits better as a 4 as he was listed at about 250lbs before the weight became a draft issue, and now he lists himself at 235. The fact he played the 4 at Duke and averaged 8.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game lends to the idea he can play the 4.
So what are the Bucks to do? Play him at the 3 where he can play on the perimeter more and take advantage of his shooting and play making skills, but may struggle against smaller quicker wings on defense? Do they play him at the 4 where he can take advantage of bigger players who have to respect his outside game but aren't as adept at guarding the perimeter, but let him take the physical pounding of guarding a 4. Think of who he will have to play. Would you rather see him matched up on Kevin Durant, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, or Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and Zach Randolph?
I think the answer will depend mostly on the development of the Greek Freak. Much of the Bucks' future will depend on the development of Giannis, who Bucks' management seems to be in love with. Giannis as a young 18 year old playing in the NBA had the look of a natural 3 with his ball handling and perimeter skills. At 6'9" he had the length and wing span you love at that position in combination with elite athletic ability. He, like Wiggins, has the potential to defend multiple positions and that may be the answer. If Giannis can guard the 3 or 4, Parker can guard the other. Hammond said as much in his pre-draft interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
Have you had discussions about how players' positions may change based on No. 2 pick?
"We've talked about that. I think, once again, that these guys are multiple position guys helps that discussion. For that matter, I think Giannis is going to be a multiple position player some day. He came last September he was 6-9, 190 (lbs.) and today he's almost 6-11, 217 pounds. I think Giannis is a guy that is going to be able to play, at his size, he's going to be able to play some small forward and he's going to play some power forward some day."So there it is. Parker will be playing the 3.5. In the end having guys that neatly fit into positions doesn't matter nearly as much as having guys that fit together. The Bucks hopefully have found 2 forwards that will fit together very well for a long time. Will they find enough other pieces to fit with them, and turn this into the type of winning team I remember watching growing up in the 80s? We'll see.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
It makes sense
I am doubtful that Cleveland ever really had doubts Wiggins was the guy. Athletes of his caliber are rare. Athletes that have basketball skill, great character, and youth are rarer. Athletes that actually try all the time on defense, despite developing in an AAU circuit that cares as much about defense as the kids on the playground, are crazy rare. Parker is no doubt, a better offensive player right now. Wiggins is no doubt, a better defender right now. Is it easier to teach a kid to improve his offense, or defense? I wanted Wiggins for the Bucks, but they didn't get him so now I have to hope I am wrong and he sucks. Or at least that if he is great, that he takes several years to develop and then bolts Cleveland for hopefully some team out west.
Enough moping. Time to move on.
My love of Wiggins does not limit my enthusiasm for Parker. He should be a very good player for several years. ESPN threw up a Big Dog comparison on their draft coverage, and I think that may be dead on. He seems like a guy who could carry the scoring in any given game much like Big Dog did, and Michael Redd did after him. Neither of those guys was good enough to win playoff games by themselves, and I don't think Parker will be either. That's OK. The Bucks will need to find some help for him.
This is a good pick, but also a management pick. Parker is a guy that can sell tickets and build enthusiasm for the next few years, even if the team mostly loses. That should be just long enough to get a new arena built. I don't doubt that John Hammond was on board with this pick, but it doesn't really fit his draft profile. Hammond takes high end potential guys. His drafts have included:
If Hammond was allowed to just run this team the way he wants, I feel like he would have gone Embiid. One thing Hammond has shown is the willingness to draft players regardless of position. They have a ton of forwards, and yet they keep drafting them. The question will be: are they acquiring quality assets they can trade to improve their team, or will they just allow other teams to steal their guys because they know they can't play them all? Time will tell. Hard to say if Hammond will be with the Bucks much longer. He's not management's guy after all, and new management tends to like their own guys.
Enough moping. Time to move on.
My love of Wiggins does not limit my enthusiasm for Parker. He should be a very good player for several years. ESPN threw up a Big Dog comparison on their draft coverage, and I think that may be dead on. He seems like a guy who could carry the scoring in any given game much like Big Dog did, and Michael Redd did after him. Neither of those guys was good enough to win playoff games by themselves, and I don't think Parker will be either. That's OK. The Bucks will need to find some help for him.
This is a good pick, but also a management pick. Parker is a guy that can sell tickets and build enthusiasm for the next few years, even if the team mostly loses. That should be just long enough to get a new arena built. I don't doubt that John Hammond was on board with this pick, but it doesn't really fit his draft profile. Hammond takes high end potential guys. His drafts have included:
- Joe Alexander- Obviously didn't work out, but he was drafted because he tested off the charts at the combine for athleticism, which is the point I'm trying to make here.
- Brandon Jennings- Best high school player the year before going to Europe instead of college.
- Larry Sanders- Great athlete but raw as could be.
- Tobias Harris- Was certainly no big time athlete, but he was the youngest player in the draft. In the NBA youth= upside.
- John Henson- Maybe Hammond safest pick as a college Junior and proven rebounder, but a weird body type.
- The Greak Freak- another crazy athlete who needs development
If Hammond was allowed to just run this team the way he wants, I feel like he would have gone Embiid. One thing Hammond has shown is the willingness to draft players regardless of position. They have a ton of forwards, and yet they keep drafting them. The question will be: are they acquiring quality assets they can trade to improve their team, or will they just allow other teams to steal their guys because they know they can't play them all? Time will tell. Hard to say if Hammond will be with the Bucks much longer. He's not management's guy after all, and new management tends to like their own guys.
Monday, June 23, 2014
From the world within a world of baseball.
Somehow this is real-
http://m.mlb.com/video/v33934447/ladsd-dodgers-and-padres-booths-on-torres-hat
Any time you get a little commentary from Vin Scully, that's a pretty good day.
I think he could explain how he actually ate shit on a shingle back in 1947, and grew four inches overnight, and I'd believe every word.
http://m.mlb.com/video/v33934447/ladsd-dodgers-and-padres-booths-on-torres-hat
Any time you get a little commentary from Vin Scully, that's a pretty good day.
I think he could explain how he actually ate shit on a shingle back in 1947, and grew four inches overnight, and I'd believe every word.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Some thoughts on soccer
I get a kick out of American sports fan criticizing soccer, as if we all made a conscious choice to follow basketball and football instead because of their supposedly superior rules.
I follow football because it was on TV when I was a kid, and my family and friends watched it. So I did too, and I came to care about it and develop rooting interests. For some strange reason, I care (a lot) who wins Packers and Badgers games. Also, since most dudes follow football it gives me something to talk about with strangers.
Still, when I don't have a rooting interest, I find football close to unwatchable. The officiating is arbitrary, usually terrible, yet often decisive. The game is filled with stoppages and commercials. Approximately half the players on each side of the ball are gigantic fat guys. The brutality of the game is often nauseating. Etc.
Of course, like most Americans who watch soccer every four years or so, I have lots of ideas on how soccer can be improved. For example, I've seen about five goals this World Cup nullified by incorrect offside calls. This is super frustrating. The best thing about soccer, from a spectator perspective, is how exciting goals are. When one of these gigantic events is nullified by incompetence, it's really infuriating.
So here's a serious suggestion on the offside rule: get rid of it once the ball is past the penalty area, or some other arbitrary yard marker deep in the opponent's territory. In other words, there's no offside call if the ball is played from deep in the opponent's territory. This alleviates any concern about cherry picking, but eliminates a lot of the opportunity for decisively terrible calls. And we'd get some more goals, but probably not so many that it would destroy how exciting they are.
My other big complaint about soccer is that rule about not using your hands. Come on. Hands are what make us human. Think how much more exciting it would be if players could catch the ball and throw it through the goal posts. I think you'd also want to award more points if a player was able to carry it through the goal posts, but you'd have to allow tackling to prevent that. I'll have to think this through, but obviously the use of hands should be allowed.
So here's a serious suggestion on the offside rule: get rid of it once the ball is past the penalty area, or some other arbitrary yard marker deep in the opponent's territory. In other words, there's no offside call if the ball is played from deep in the opponent's territory. This alleviates any concern about cherry picking, but eliminates a lot of the opportunity for decisively terrible calls. And we'd get some more goals, but probably not so many that it would destroy how exciting they are.
My other big complaint about soccer is that rule about not using your hands. Come on. Hands are what make us human. Think how much more exciting it would be if players could catch the ball and throw it through the goal posts. I think you'd also want to award more points if a player was able to carry it through the goal posts, but you'd have to allow tackling to prevent that. I'll have to think this through, but obviously the use of hands should be allowed.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Now that Embiid is injured, the Bucks should take him
Here's a hot take!
Yesterday we learned that that Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his foot, and will need surgery.
I'm on record arguing against Embiid as the number one pick, given his history of injuries and lack of dominance at Kansas last year. But obviously the talent scouts know way more than me, and they are excited about his gifts and his potential.
And now that he's having surgery, and will likely be put on ice for all of next year, I think the Bucks should take him.
"What? You thought he was a risk when he was healthy, but now you want the Bucks to take him?"
Yes, my friends. Here's why. Chorlton has convinced me the last thing you want to be in the NBA is mediocre. Let's say the Bucks get the Wiggins/Parker leftover, and whoever they get turns out to be a solid NBA player -- maybe even an all-star. Is that going to get the Bucks over the hump? Is that going to get them winning playoff series? Maybe. But quite probably not.
But consider this. The Bucks take Joel Embiid. They suck again next year -- probably not as much as they sucked last year, but still pretty bad. As a result get another top five pick next year.
Now we're talking. If Embiid comes back and turns out to be the stars that the scouts think he will be, and the Bucks add another blue chipper to along with, um, those guys currently on the team, it's conceivable to think that the Bucks could suddenly have a really good team.
Thoughts?
Yesterday we learned that that Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his foot, and will need surgery.
I'm on record arguing against Embiid as the number one pick, given his history of injuries and lack of dominance at Kansas last year. But obviously the talent scouts know way more than me, and they are excited about his gifts and his potential.
And now that he's having surgery, and will likely be put on ice for all of next year, I think the Bucks should take him.
"What? You thought he was a risk when he was healthy, but now you want the Bucks to take him?"
Yes, my friends. Here's why. Chorlton has convinced me the last thing you want to be in the NBA is mediocre. Let's say the Bucks get the Wiggins/Parker leftover, and whoever they get turns out to be a solid NBA player -- maybe even an all-star. Is that going to get the Bucks over the hump? Is that going to get them winning playoff series? Maybe. But quite probably not.
But consider this. The Bucks take Joel Embiid. They suck again next year -- probably not as much as they sucked last year, but still pretty bad. As a result get another top five pick next year.
Now we're talking. If Embiid comes back and turns out to be the stars that the scouts think he will be, and the Bucks add another blue chipper to along with, um, those guys currently on the team, it's conceivable to think that the Bucks could suddenly have a really good team.
Thoughts?
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Bucks get Number Two: thoughts on Joel Embiid
I haven't really followed the NBA closely for many years, but it has come to my attention that the Bucks came in second in the NBA draft lottery last night.
For over a year, we've been hearing about how loaded the 2014 draft class would be. And it does appear to be relatively deep, at least in the lottery picks. But there's no Lebron -- no surefire number one.
And that brings me to Joel Embiid, the 7-footer from Kansas who many are touting as the number one prospect in the draft. Although I am a college basketball fanatic, I can't say for sure if I've ever seen Embiid play (other than in highlights). He hurt his back late last year and missed the NCAA tournament, so he didn't get any time in the college basketball limelight. But he did get a bunch of hype mid-season as the best player in the game.
Still, he strikes me as a verrry risky pick, at least for a number one. First, there's the obvious: he's a big man with back problems at age 18. Second, looking at his stats he appears to be athletic but raw. In his season at Kansas, he was an elite rebounder at both ends, and a very efficient player on offense. But remember -- he was a seven-footer surrounded by the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, and Perry Ellis. In other words, he could not be the focus of a defense.
Despite this, in his 28 games at Kansas, Embiid never had a dominating performance. He never took more than nine shots in a game, and he never scored more 18 points in a game. Based on my research, every number one pick that played college basketball has had at least one 20-point game. (Most, of course, had many.)
And it isn't as though Embiid got off to a slow start and then performed at a consistently high level late in the season. In his last eight games before getting shut down, he had three games where he didn't reach double figures in scoring. He went 6-20 from the field in those three games, with just four offensive rebounds.
Finally, look at Embiid's numbers against elite competition. The Big 12 was a solid conference last year but other than Kansas there were no top-20 Kenpom teams. Kansas did play four top-20 teams in the non-conference schedule though, and here are Embiid's performances:
Not terrible, by any means, but also not numbers that make you think this guy would be the number one pick in the NBA draft. To be fair, Wiggins didn't set the world on fire in those games either: he scored 22, 10, 26, and 14, but took a lot of shots to get those points. Still, 26 points (on 15 shots) and 11 rebounds at Florida is a superstar kind of game.
So if he were drafted number one, Embiid would be breaking new ground, and would be an extreme example of the NBA's recent drive toward drafting on potential rather than polish. With guys like Noah Vonleh and Julius Randle around -- guys who I am very confident are ready to play in the NBA -- it would be tempting to trade down a few spots if other teams really are itching for Embiid.
What do you guys think -- should the Bucks take Embiid if Cleveland passes on him?
For over a year, we've been hearing about how loaded the 2014 draft class would be. And it does appear to be relatively deep, at least in the lottery picks. But there's no Lebron -- no surefire number one.
And that brings me to Joel Embiid, the 7-footer from Kansas who many are touting as the number one prospect in the draft. Although I am a college basketball fanatic, I can't say for sure if I've ever seen Embiid play (other than in highlights). He hurt his back late last year and missed the NCAA tournament, so he didn't get any time in the college basketball limelight. But he did get a bunch of hype mid-season as the best player in the game.
Still, he strikes me as a verrry risky pick, at least for a number one. First, there's the obvious: he's a big man with back problems at age 18. Second, looking at his stats he appears to be athletic but raw. In his season at Kansas, he was an elite rebounder at both ends, and a very efficient player on offense. But remember -- he was a seven-footer surrounded by the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, and Perry Ellis. In other words, he could not be the focus of a defense.
Despite this, in his 28 games at Kansas, Embiid never had a dominating performance. He never took more than nine shots in a game, and he never scored more 18 points in a game. Based on my research, every number one pick that played college basketball has had at least one 20-point game. (Most, of course, had many.)
And it isn't as though Embiid got off to a slow start and then performed at a consistently high level late in the season. In his last eight games before getting shut down, he had three games where he didn't reach double figures in scoring. He went 6-20 from the field in those three games, with just four offensive rebounds.
Finally, look at Embiid's numbers against elite competition. The Big 12 was a solid conference last year but other than Kansas there were no top-20 Kenpom teams. Kansas did play four top-20 teams in the non-conference schedule though, and here are Embiid's performances:
| Opponent | Score | Min | ORtg | %Ps | Pts | 2PM-A | 3PM-A | FTM-A | OR | DR | A | TO | Blk |
| Duke | W, 94-83 | 20 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Villanova | L, 63-59 | 12 | 99 | 41 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Florida | L, 67-61 | 30 | 99 | 12 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| SDSU | L, 61-57 | 26 | 117 | 26 | 12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Not terrible, by any means, but also not numbers that make you think this guy would be the number one pick in the NBA draft. To be fair, Wiggins didn't set the world on fire in those games either: he scored 22, 10, 26, and 14, but took a lot of shots to get those points. Still, 26 points (on 15 shots) and 11 rebounds at Florida is a superstar kind of game.
So if he were drafted number one, Embiid would be breaking new ground, and would be an extreme example of the NBA's recent drive toward drafting on potential rather than polish. With guys like Noah Vonleh and Julius Randle around -- guys who I am very confident are ready to play in the NBA -- it would be tempting to trade down a few spots if other teams really are itching for Embiid.
What do you guys think -- should the Bucks take Embiid if Cleveland passes on him?
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Projecting the 2015 NCAA Tournament
Although news of transfers out and grad transfers in seems to come in every day, I'm ready to consider the T-Rank preliminarily done. So I've got a projected rank of all 351 teams, and projected conference champions. That lets me project the NCAA tournament. Here is is!
1 Louisville
1 Kansas
1 Wisconsin
1 Arizona
2 Kentucky
2 Duke
2 North Carolina
2 Florida
3 Michigan St.
3 Virginia
3 Wichita St.
3 Iowa St.
4 Texas
4 Gonzaga
4 Michigan
4 Oklahoma
5 Ohio St.
5 Pittsburgh
5 Villanova
5 VCU
6 Kansas St.
6 Illinois
6 SMU
6 Utah
7 Colorado
7 Minnesota
7 Iowa
7 Northern Iowa
8 Syracuse
8 San Diego St.
8 North Carolina St.
8 Nebraska
9 Baylor
9 Notre Dame
9 Alabama
9 Butler
10 BYU
10 Connecticut
10 Mississippi
10 Colorado St.
12 Miami FL
12 Florida St.
12 Stanford
12 Harvard
13 Green Bay
13 Stephen F. Austin
13 Georgia St.
13 Siena
14 Denver
14 New Mexico St.
14 Toledo
14 Louisiana Tech
15 Lafayette
15 Radford
15 Stony Brook
15 Northeastern
16 Florida Gulf Coast
16 Montana
16 Wofford
16 St. Francis NY
16 North Carolina Central
16 Alabama St.
Indiana
Cincinnati
Dayton
Georgia
Georgetown
Marquette
Creighton
California
Saint Mary's
New Mexico
1 Louisville
1 Kansas
1 Wisconsin
1 Arizona
Louisville is a bit of an outlier as my projected overall #1 seed. The thing with Louisville is that they've finished first in adjusted efficiency each of the last two seasons. So their base "program rating" is easily the best. They are losing one of the best college players ever, Russ Smith, but got a nice surprise when Montrezl Harris decided not to go pro. So they return enough minutes and enough power to project as number one. I doubt they will be the best team in the country next year, but it would be foolish not to project them as a top-ten team.
2 Kentucky
2 Duke
2 North Carolina
2 Florida
With the Harrison twins returning, everyone is slotting Kentucky in at number one, again. They'll certainly be loaded with talent, and T-Rank projects Aaron Harrison to be the single most impactful player on any major conference team. But they do lose their best player (Randle), and their incoming recruiting class isn't quite as good as last year's. Moreover, Kentucky's overall results the last two years—remember that they were an 8-seed last year, and lost in the first round of the NIT the year before—make T-Rank a little skeptical. If Kentucky had lost any of those close games they played prior to the Final Four, I don't think anyone would be quite so gaga about them next year. Still, they obviously have the talent to win the national title, so number five seems about right as a projection.
If I were doing these projections, I'd probably put Duke on the 1-seed line instead of Louisville, probably ahead of Arizona as well. Duke will again be relying on a stellar recruiting class, and the game against the Badgers in Madison should be a doozy.
Speaking of Arizona, they should be quite good again next year, but the somewhat unexpected departure of Nick Johnson to the pros tempers expectations somewhat.
No reason not to expect Florida to be good again. They lose an epic senior class that went to three Elite Eights and a Final Four, but they'll just reload under Billy Donovan.
North Carolina brings back a lot of young players, and adds another nice recruiting class. It figures to be one of their up years.
3 Michigan St.
3 Virginia
3 Wichita St.
3 Iowa St.
As discussed previously, Michigan St. comes out a bit high on the T-Rank. That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Michigan St. get a 3-seed next year. It's questionable whether Branden Dawson can be "the man," and State lacks "stars" behind him—but they have a bunch of good players, and bunch of guys who got good minutes last year because of all their injuries. I can't help thinking that they are due to get a little lucky next year.
Wichita State should remain a very good team. They lose Cleanthony Early, but Fred Van Vleet and all the other major contributors return. That said, don't expect them to go 18-0 in the Missouri Valley again, because the conference should take a major step forward next year. T-Rank projects that Northern Iowa, Evansville, and Illinois State should all take big leaps next year, as they all return the bulk of their young rosters.
Fred Hoiberg solidified next year's roster with the addition of grad transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones from UNLV. They also add Jameel McKay, a juco who committed to Marquette last year then immediately decided to transfer, and Abdel Nader, a transfer out of Northern Illinois. Of course you never know how a transfer-heavy team will come together, but by now Fred Hoiberg gets the benefit of the doubt.
4 Texas
4 Gonzaga
4 Michigan
4 Oklahoma
T-Rank was pretty much alone in predicting that Texas would be good last year, and it continues to like the Longhorns. Everybody is on to them now, as they return everybody from a ridiculously young team that made the NCAA tournament.
Oklahoma is another team on the rise under Lon Kruger, and they return most of their key contributors. They are a darkhorse to make some noise in the Big 12.
5 Ohio St.
5 Pittsburgh
5 Villanova
5 VCU
Villanova is projected to win the Big East, and VCU is projected to win the A10. Ohio St. is a bit of a mystery team, but I'd never bet against a Thad Matta team. They bring in an impact grad transfer (Anthony Lee, from Temple) and the Big Ten's most highly touted recruit (D'Angelo Russell).
6 Kansas St.
6 Illinois
6 SMU
6 Utah
SMU is expected to continue its rapid rise under Larry Brown, as they return most of their young talent and add possibly the best player in the class of 2015, Emmanuel Mudiay.
Utah is also climbing under Larry Krystowiak. Along with SMU, they were one of the better teams not to make the tournament last year, and they should be better next year.
Illinois is anyone's guess next year. They've got some transfers coming in (though Groce recently suspended Darius Paul for the year) and some talent coming back. I don't think Groce is a very good coach, but I'm often wrong about these things.
Speaking of bad Illinois coaches, there's Kansas State.
7 Colorado
7 Minnesota
7 Iowa
7 Northern Iowa
Colorado is an interesting team. Spencer Dinwiddie went pro, but everybody else returns. They were decent even after his injury last year, so they could continue to improve next year.
Iowa and Minnesota follow on Illinois' heels as mediocre Big Ten teams. As with Illinois, this seems like a best-case scenario for both teams.
There's Northern Iowa, evidence of the MVC resurgence I mentioned above. They return just about everybody, and Ben Jacobson has a history of success, so they are T-Rank's pick for the at-large out of the MVC.
8 Syracuse
8 San Diego St.
8 North Carolina St.
8 Nebraska
Once again, the T-Rank doesn't like Syracuse. But Syracuse has the same question marks as they did going into last year -- a lot of turnover, and who will play point guard? They struck gold with Tyler Ennis, and this year they'll likely be counting on a freshman again, 4-star recruit Kaleb Joseph. But Boeheim is one of those coaches who just wins, of course.
Nebraska checks in as an 8-seed. It will surprise no one, of course, if they are better than Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota. They've got some legacy issues keeping their T-Rank down, although I made some major tweaks this year largely to account for teams like Nebraska that have really turned a corner. Sometimes a team like Nebraska turns out to be a flash in the pan, but Coach Miles's record of success is pretty remarkable.
9 Baylor
9 Notre Dame
9 Alabama
9 Butler
Butler figures to rise again in the Big East, fueled by some transfers. But their T-Rank still reflects some Brad Stevens mojo, so they'll be interesting to watch next year. Importantly, they'll get Roosevelt Jones back from injury next year.
10 BYU
10 Connecticut
10 Mississippi
10 Colorado St.
BYU is a tough team to figure with all the missions, and they lost grad transfer Matt Carlino (to Marquette). But this is about where they seem to be every year. UConn loses a lot, and the rather unexpected departure of Ryan Boatright Deandre Daniels to the pros is an unexpected hit. Colorado State is kind of the mirror image of Nebraska — they had a down year last year, but have a solid history to buck up their T-Rank. But it's questionable whether Larry Eustachy can maintain what Tim Miles built.
11 West Virginia
11 Columbia
11 Oklahoma St.
11 UCLA
11 Columbia
11 Oklahoma St.
11 UCLA
UCLA has suffered a wave of defections, and they're a tough team to figure. West Virginia has young returning talent but suffered a gut punch with Eron Harris's decision to transfer.
The big surprise here is Columbia, which T-Rank projects as the Ivy League champ over Harvard. This is anomolous, of course. But Columbia returns everybody from a solid young team (#123 in Kenpom last year). I will be rooting for them!
12 Miami FL
12 Florida St.
12 Stanford
12 Harvard
12 Murray St.
12 UC Irvine
12 UC Irvine
Harvard sneaks in as the last at-large despite Columbia's surge. Stanford is probably underrated here, largely because they have been better than their statistical profile the last couple years. Miami and Florida St. give the sunshine state something to hope for.
13 Green Bay
13 Stephen F. Austin
13 Georgia St.
13 Siena
It's all automatic qualifiers from here down. Green Bay is again projected to win the Horizon, with Cleveland St. a close second in the projections. Overall, this would be a pretty scary set of 13-seeds.
14 Denver
14 New Mexico St.
14 Toledo
14 Louisiana Tech
15 Lafayette
15 Radford
15 Stony Brook
15 Northeastern
16 Florida Gulf Coast
16 Montana
16 Wofford
16 St. Francis NY
16 North Carolina Central
16 Alabama St.
BUBBLE TEAMS
Here are the top ten teams, as projected by the T-Rank, that missed the field:
Cincinnati
Dayton
Georgia
Georgetown
Marquette
Creighton
California
Saint Mary's
New Mexico
Thursday, May 1, 2014
New blog rule
There's been lots of good news for Badger fans lately, culminating in the announcement that UW will get a home game against Duke in the Big Ten/ACC challenge next year. Incoming Freshman Ethan Happ won the MVP of his summer international tournament, although the competition wasn't as high as some of the more high profile international tourneys. Still, better that he won the MVP than was just another guy on the bench. Kaminsky and Dekker both decided to come back to the Badgers while other teams have lost players to the NBA and transfers. Neither guy looked like a likely first round pick so it's probably for the best they came back. Both guys should have professional careers beyond UW. Maybe they don't ever make it to the NBA, but they should get a crack at the D league and certainly can have a career overseas if they want to. It certainly seems possible they could become rotational NBA guys, especially Dekker.
Here are my quick next year predictions to rival the T-rank. I put no value in these since it's just too early, unless of course I am right, then I will gloat and compare the T-rank predictions to that of a monkey.
UW 14-4
OSU 13-5
MSU 12-6
MI 10-8
IL 10-8
Iowa 9-9
Nebraska 9-9
Minn 9-9
Purdue7-11
IU 7-11
PSU 5-13
Northwestern 4-14
I have done no research on Maryland or Rutgers, so I'll omit them until fall when I update this.
Bo Ryan has brought me so much joy that I am instituting a new blog rule. All badger basketball related posts will now have to be ended with:
I love Bo Ryan
Sunday, April 20, 2014
Bucks need to be bigger
Back when Andrew Bogut was still with the Bucks, they made a move to sign Drew Gooden with the intent to play him at the 4 next to Bogut. That was right after the career changing elbow injury Bogut suffered at the end of the 2009-10 season. They wanted to play power basketball with 2 big physical rebounders. Gooden was hurt most of the 2010-11 season and only played 35 games, eliminating that plan. This allowed for more playing time for Ilyasova and rookie Larry Sanders. Bogut then played in just 12 games in the strike shortened 2011-12 season before being traded for Monta Ellis. Power basketball never came to Milwaukee.
The Bucks have played smaller lineups since Bogut has left, starting Gooden by necessity after the Bogut trade. Samuel Dalembert was brought in for 2012-13, but Sanders took over part way into the season. Sanders is small for a center, but is a quality shot blocker. The Bucks have also played undersized at the 4 playing players like Ilyasova, and Mbah-a-Moute who are either too short or too slight to play with big NBA power forwards.People into metrics love Larry Sanders. His shot blocking, especially from the weak side does make a difference in games. I understand the value of rim protectors, especially mobile ones that can cover a lot of ground to help. I was not a fan of Larry Sanders as a starting center even before his crazy run this year, (broken hand in bar fight, animal neglect charges and other charges, orbital fracture injury in game, and finally failed marijuana test suspension) because he is just too small. Sanders is listed at 6'11" and 235lbs. His athleticism makes up for a lack of beef, but he and the Bucks struggle when the opponent has a lot of beef up front.
The NBA is filled with athletes that run and dunk and do amazing things, but it is still basketball. In basketball generally the big guys win over the small guys. Just look a the beef of the starters for the top 5 teams in each conference.
Indiana Hibbert/West
Miami Bosh/Haslem (teams with Lebron don't really have to play by the same rules)
Toronto Valanciunas/Amir Williams
Chicago Boozer/NoahWashington Gortat/Nene
San Antonio Duncan/Splitter or Diaw
OKC Ibaka/Perkins (same applies to teams with Durant)
Clippers Jordan/Griffin
Houston Howard/Jones
Portland Lopez/Aldridge
Every team would like to have a Lebron or a Durant, because it doesn't much matter who plays with them because they are going to win. Not too many of those guys out there, so it's probably not a good strategy for the Bucks. I don't know what the Bucks new owners will do with this team, but I hope they put an emphasis on bigger is better.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
Bo Ryan tidbits
A couple of awesome facts about the Bo Ryan era:
1) With another 30-win season, Bo Ryan now has three 30-win seasons with the Badgers. These are, of course, the only 30-win seasons in program history. Even more amazingly, Bo and the Badgers now have as many 30-win seasons as any coach or team in Big Ten history. Michigan St. (Izzo), Ohio State (Matta), Michigan (Frieder/Fischer, Fischer, Beilein), and Indiana (Knight) all also have three 30-win seasons (correction: Knight has four). So, one of next year's goals should be to break this tie and take the 30-win crown for himself join Knight at the top.
2) The Badgers have now been a top-5 seed in the NCAA tournament five years in a row. Only three other schools can say the same: Kansas, Duke, and Syracuse.
EDIT: actually Knight had four with Indiana. Not sure how I screwed that up.
1) With another 30-win season, Bo Ryan now has three 30-win seasons with the Badgers. These are, of course, the only 30-win seasons in program history. Even more amazingly, Bo and the Badgers now have as many 30-win seasons as any coach or team in Big Ten history. Michigan St. (Izzo), Ohio State (Matta), Michigan (Frieder/Fischer, Fischer, Beilein), and Indiana (Knight) all also have three 30-win seasons (correction: Knight has four). So, one of next year's goals should be to
2) The Badgers have now been a top-5 seed in the NCAA tournament five years in a row. Only three other schools can say the same: Kansas, Duke, and Syracuse.
EDIT: actually Knight had four with Indiana. Not sure how I screwed that up.
Friday, April 18, 2014
Kohl
The Bucks announced they are being sold to a couple of New York investment guys who have tons of cash and a love of basketball. I have not been a big fan of Herb Kohl, in his capacity as owner of the Bucks. Kohl bought the Bucks in 1985, and at the time they were a perennial playoff team and occasional conference finals threat in an era dominated by Bird and Magic. The team’s success faded in the years after Kohl bought it. The Vin Baker era was painful. Big Dog and Ray Allen brought some hope, but limited playoff appearances and one conference finals appearance was the best they could do. There was some promise before Bogut destroyed his elbow, but that quickly faded. After that, there have been a bunch of bad teams and few wins. It would be hard from a basketball watcher's perspective to say the past 30 years are anything but an overall failure. Not as bad as being the Clippers, but still just not very good.
Kohl will leave ownership with 2 major achievements. He made a ton of money, and he kept the team in Milwaukee. He bought the Bucks for $18 million, and sold for $550 million, minus $100 million he is donating to a fund to build a new arena in downtown Milwaukee. A 2500% increase in value over 30 years is pretty good, and makes all the whines about Milwaukee as a small market team that loses money sound a bit hollow. As a fan, I don’t really care how much money Kohl makes, but I do like that he insured the team will stay in Milwaukee for the near future. With another $100 million from the new owners there will be a new arena, and likely a lease for 20 years or so. Beyond that, the Bucks success during those 20 years will determine if they stay in Milwaukee or not.
The Bucks will never be among the NBAs elite franchises. The NBA is just fine with LA, NY, and the other big cities maintaining their advantages to keep the ratings high. In order for a team like Milwaukee to be successful they need a few things: good owners, good management, and good luck. They need an owner who is willing to spend, but smart enough not to meddle. Despite the financial disadvantages of Milwaukee (less money from local TV contracts, less money from the arena) Kohl was willing to spend when the Bucks were winning. The Bucks were over the cap during part of the Allen, Big Dog, Cassell era, and Kohl paid handsomely to have an elite coach in George Karl during that time too. He doesn’t do so well when it comes to the meddling. Despite his low profile with the team, his fingerprints were on a lot of the moves they made. Not as bad as a Mark Cuban, but more than you want. Good management is another issue. I’m OK with John Hammond, but it’s hard to call his era a success. Larry Harris and others before him would definitely not be called a success. Being considered good management has a lot to do with good luck. San Antonio (another small market) is widely considered to have some of the best management, but they also had the good fortune to draft Tim Duncan who makes a lot of coaches and GMs look good. A lucky draft at the right time can make a huge difference.
Time will tell what this new ownership group brings to Milwaukee. They should have a high pick in a good draft to get them started. A new arena in a few years should help with revenues and keeping players. There is very little talent to build with, but outside of Larry Sanders there are also no massive long term contracts (beyond 2 more years) that will be major problems. The new salary cap should help teams like Milwaukee remain competitive. Lets hope the next 30 years are more successful.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
I'm no Bo Ryan
Bo Ryan is all about the next game. It's one of the things that makes him a great coach. I am a fan, so I have the luxury of obsessing about the past and the future of Badger basketball. I don't remember being as emotionally crushed by a loss in a sporting event since the Packers lost to Denver in the Super Bowl. I was a much younger and more emotional fellow in those days, so I was a bit taken by surprise how affected I was by the Badgers' loss this year. I have finished my obsessing about the past, and I'm almost ready to move on to the future.
Watching this year's team was a great ride. The run to the Final Four was just one more notch on Bo Ryan's belt of amazing accomplishments at UW. I am very happy that it happened this year, as runs like that are not easy to come by. I can already hear the fans and pundits predicting a UW team that brings back 6 of 7 rotational players will be a lock to return next year. Just ask Virginia, Wichita State, Arizona, Michigan, Villanova ... you get the point. A lot of great teams every year aren't going to the Final Four, and it's highly likely that UW won't be one of those last 4 next year.
But I am one of those fans after all, so it's time to move on the future and start daydreaming about Bo making back-to-back Final Fours. Perhaps even more.
I'll throw out my far less scientific big ten predictions in the weeks to come, once we have a better feel for who is going pro.
Watching this year's team was a great ride. The run to the Final Four was just one more notch on Bo Ryan's belt of amazing accomplishments at UW. I am very happy that it happened this year, as runs like that are not easy to come by. I can already hear the fans and pundits predicting a UW team that brings back 6 of 7 rotational players will be a lock to return next year. Just ask Virginia, Wichita State, Arizona, Michigan, Villanova ... you get the point. A lot of great teams every year aren't going to the Final Four, and it's highly likely that UW won't be one of those last 4 next year.
But I am one of those fans after all, so it's time to move on the future and start daydreaming about Bo making back-to-back Final Fours. Perhaps even more.
I'll throw out my far less scientific big ten predictions in the weeks to come, once we have a better feel for who is going pro.
Monday, April 7, 2014
Projected 2015 Big Ten Standings
As mentioned earlier, I'll be expanding the T-Rank (my preseason ratings) to all 350 or so teams this off-season. If you want preseason ratings based on careful thought and rigorous data, Dan Hanner is your man. If you want results based on a quirky project of mine, then the T-Rank is the be-all-end-all. In the coming days I will have some posts showing how well last year's effort did. The short story is: not bad. Not as good as Hanner, but on par with Kenpom, and better than Team Rankings. But it is a small sample size, so a lot is riding on next year's performance. (Just kidding: literally nothing is riding on it.)
This will be a lot of work, particularly trying accurately to incorporate transfers. There will be errors. But it gives me something to do in the off-season.
Anyhow, to whet your appetite, I've got preliminary ranks done for the Big Ten. I'm sure that I'm missing some transfer info, and this will be continually updated. But since T-Rank spits out a projected Pythagorean winning percentage, I can use that to project win totals for the Big Ten season. And because I can, I have:
So there you have it: the Badgers are pretty much guaranteed to win the Big Ten next year.
Edit: Typo originally had Ohio State's wins and losses reversed.
This will be a lot of work, particularly trying accurately to incorporate transfers. There will be errors. But it gives me something to do in the off-season.
Anyhow, to whet your appetite, I've got preliminary ranks done for the Big Ten. I'm sure that I'm missing some transfer info, and this will be continually updated. But since T-Rank spits out a projected Pythagorean winning percentage, I can use that to project win totals for the Big Ten season. And because I can, I have:
So there you have it: the Badgers are pretty much guaranteed to win the Big Ten next year.
Edit: Typo originally had Ohio State's wins and losses reversed.
NEXT
Prepare yourself for the most anticipated, hyped Badger basketball team ever. They will likely be preseason Top 5. They will likely be Top 5 in the preseason computer rankings (including the T-Rank, which I plan to expand to all 350 teams this year).
Can't wait.
Can't wait.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Sean Miller
Sean Miller is obviously a great coach. His Xavier teams were great, and he has rebuilt Arizona into a national power. He will almost certainly win a championship there.
But I was equally impressed with his post-game comments, which were beyond classy. Both in the immediate post-game interview, in which he expressed how happy he was for Bo Ryan, and in the post-game press conference. He's frankly made me into an Arizona fan, and I'll be rooting for them next year—until they play the Badgers in the Final Four.
But I was equally impressed with his post-game comments, which were beyond classy. Both in the immediate post-game interview, in which he expressed how happy he was for Bo Ryan, and in the post-game press conference. He's frankly made me into an Arizona fan, and I'll be rooting for them next year—until they play the Badgers in the Final Four.
Sunday, March 30, 2014
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