Thursday, April 10, 2014

I'm no Bo Ryan

Bo Ryan is all about the next game. It's one of the things that makes him a great coach. I am a fan, so I have the luxury of obsessing about the past and the future of Badger basketball. I don't remember being as emotionally crushed by a loss in a sporting event since the Packers lost to Denver in the Super Bowl. I was a much younger and more emotional fellow in those days, so I was a bit taken by surprise how affected I was by the Badgers' loss this year. I have finished my obsessing about the past, and I'm almost ready to move on to the future.

Watching this year's team was a great ride. The run to the Final Four was just one more notch on Bo Ryan's belt of amazing accomplishments at UW. I am very happy that it happened this year, as runs like that are not easy to come by. I can already hear the fans and pundits predicting a UW team that brings back 6 of 7 rotational players will be a lock to return next year. Just ask Virginia, Wichita State, Arizona, Michigan, Villanova ... you get the point. A lot of great teams every year aren't going to the Final Four, and it's highly likely that UW won't be one of those last 4 next year.
But I am one of those fans after all, so it's time to move on the future and start daydreaming about Bo making back-to-back Final Fours. Perhaps even more.

I'll throw out my far less scientific big ten predictions in the weeks to come, once we have a better feel for who is going pro.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Projected 2015 Big Ten Standings

As mentioned earlier, I'll be expanding the T-Rank (my preseason ratings) to all 350 or so teams this off-season. If you want preseason ratings based on careful thought and rigorous data, Dan Hanner is your man. If you want results based on a quirky project of mine, then the T-Rank is the be-all-end-all. In the coming days I will have some posts showing how well last year's effort did. The short story is: not bad. Not as good as Hanner, but on par with Kenpom, and better than Team Rankings. But it is a small sample size, so a lot is riding on next year's performance. (Just kidding: literally nothing is riding on it.)

This will be a lot of work, particularly trying accurately to incorporate transfers. There will be errors. But it gives me something to do in the off-season.

Anyhow, to whet your appetite, I've got preliminary ranks done for the Big Ten. I'm sure that I'm missing some transfer info, and this will be continually updated. But since T-Rank spits out a projected Pythagorean winning percentage, I can use that to project win totals for the Big Ten season. And because I can, I have:



So there you have it: the Badgers are pretty much guaranteed to win the Big Ten next year.

Edit: Typo originally had Ohio State's wins and losses reversed.

NEXT

Prepare yourself for the most anticipated, hyped Badger basketball team ever. They will likely be preseason Top 5. They will likely be Top 5 in the preseason computer rankings (including the T-Rank, which I plan to expand to all 350 teams this year).

Can't wait.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Sean Miller

Sean Miller is obviously a great coach. His Xavier teams were great, and he has rebuilt Arizona into a national power. He will almost certainly win a championship there.

But I was equally impressed with his post-game comments, which were beyond classy. Both in the immediate post-game interview, in which he expressed how happy he was for Bo Ryan, and in the post-game press conference. He's frankly made me into an Arizona fan, and I'll be rooting for them next year—until they play the Badgers in the Final Four.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Friday Facts: Tourney edition

Here's the efficiency data for every team in the tournament. So far, the Badgers are outscoring their opponents at a clip of .35 points per possession, best in the tournament. They also lead in my "adjusted" efficiency margins, which accounts for the quality of opponents. Of course, this is a small sample of just three games, so the 40-point destruction of American takes on an out-sized influence no matter what. Still, no team has been more impressive than the Badgers so far.

Another notable fact is that Michigan and Tennessee are tied for second in efficiency margin. They play each other tonight, so something has to give.

Team AdjEM O.E. D.E. Raw EM
Wisconsin 0.15    123.8      88.6 0.35
Michigan 0.07    120.4      92.9 0.27
Tennessee 0.12    128.6    101.6 0.27
Virginia 0.05    118.4      95.2 0.23
Florida 0.10    110.7      89.8 0.21
Wichita St. 0.06    114.8      94.3 0.20
Arizona 0.09    118.1      97.9 0.20
Syracuse 0.05    106.6      88.5 0.18
Louisville 0.05      99.3      83.3 0.16
Michigan St. 0.05    121.8    106.3 0.15
Baylor 0.10    111.1      96.8 0.14
Iowa St. 0.06    126.2    112.1 0.14
Connecticut 0.06    116.1    102.1 0.14
UCLA 0.08    111.1      99.5 0.12
Pittsburgh 0.05    105.2      94.0 0.11
San Diego St. 0.08    108.7      99.5 0.09
North Carolina St. 0.04    108.5    100.0 0.08
Oregon 0.05    119.7    111.7 0.08
Kentucky 0.05    108.9    101.6 0.07
Dayton 0.07    101.0      94.4 0.07
Kansas 0.03    104.6      98.5 0.06
Villanova 0.03      98.6      92.9 0.06
North Carolina 0.03    113.3    113.3 0.00
Stanford 0.05      95.0      96.0 -0.01
Ohio St. 0.01      89.4      90.9 -0.02
Harvard 0.03    103.9    106.2 -0.02
VCU 0.01    107.1    110.0 -0.03
Arizona St. 0.01    121.4    124.3 -0.03
Providence 0.01    118.5    121.5 -0.03
Albany 0.02    100.0    104.0 -0.04
New Mexico St. 0.01      94.5    100.0 -0.05
Cincinnati 0.01      95.0    101.7 -0.07
Oklahoma 0.00    104.2    111.1 -0.07
New Mexico 0.01      85.5      93.5 -0.08
Saint Louis 0.02      90.5      98.6 -0.08
George Washington 0.00    110.0    118.3 -0.08
Texas 0.01    119.7    129.1 -0.09
Gonzaga 0.02      98.0    108.1 -0.10
Oklahoma St. 0.01      98.7    109.0 -0.10
Manhattan 0.02      94.1    104.4 -0.10
Memphis 0.02    104.0    114.3 -0.10
Mercer 0.02    117.5    128.3 -0.11
Mount St. Mary's -0.01    100.0    110.9 -0.11
Duke 0.00    110.9    121.9 -0.11
North Dakota St. 0.01      98.4    109.5 -0.11
Saint Joseph's 0.01    112.5    123.6 -0.11
Stephen F. Austin 0.01    103.8    115.2 -0.11
Kansas St. 0.01      80.3      91.8 -0.11
Cal Poly -0.01      96.7    109.0 -0.12
Weber St. 0.01      98.3    113.3 -0.15
Louisiana Lafayette 0.00    101.5    116.9 -0.15
Creighton -0.01    104.8    120.8 -0.16
Eastern Kentucky 0.00    107.8    125.0 -0.17
Coastal Carolina 0.01    100.0    118.6 -0.19
Texas Southern -0.02    111.3    130.6 -0.19
Iowa 0.00    100.0    120.0 -0.20
Delaware 0.00    106.8    127.4 -0.21
Nebraska 0.00      88.2    108.8 -0.21
Xavier -0.01      92.2    115.6 -0.23
Tulsa -0.01      88.1    113.4 -0.25
BYU -0.01      94.4    120.8 -0.26
Massachusetts 0.00      94.4    121.1 -0.27
North Carolina Central -0.01    119.0    147.6 -0.29
Milwaukee -0.01      76.8    105.8 -0.29
Wofford -0.01      71.4    101.8 -0.30
Western Michigan -0.02      82.8    120.3 -0.38
Colorado -0.03      78.7    126.2 -0.48
American -0.05      60.3    129.3 -0.69