Sunday, March 12, 2017

T-Ranketology note

Well, it's Selection Sunday and the current version of the T-Ranketology algorithm has the same at-large field as the consensus (of which it is a small part) over at Bracket Matrix.

Mission accomplished.

I say this because the point of T-Ranketology isn't to try to predict the most accurate bracket on Selection Sunday. The point is to project a reasonably plausible bracket earlier in the season, so that we can see where things are reasonably likely to end up if teams keep performing like they have been. That T-Ranketology is able to basically produce the consensus field on Selection Sunday, with most teams seeded within one line of the consensus, shows that it is "good enough" to provide those useful projections earlier in the season.


Should note somewhere, so might as well be here, that I added one tweak to the algorithm on Selection Sunday: a good record bonus. One of the notable things about the bracket the algorithm was producing over the past few weeks was that it was notably down on the three PAC-12 teams. It seemed to me that this was probably a result that those teams just had really great records in their so-so conference. Whatever you want to say about the Pac-12, it's just hard not to be impressed by a team that's 29-4 or 30-4.

But I resisted adding a good record bonus—until Gonzaga fell off the one-line. I thought it was pretty clear that Gonzaga was going to get a one seed. The only drama on the one line was whether Duke or UNC would get the ACC's slot. After winning the ACC tournament, Duke did indeed sneak onto T-Ranketology's one-line—but at the expense of Gonzaga, not UNC.

So I pulled the trigger on a record bonus—really a "few losses bonus:" Teams got one point subtracted from their score for each loss under five. In other words, four-loss teams (like Arizona and UCLA) got one-point subtracted, and teams with one loss (Gonzaga) got four points subtracted. This not only got Gonzaga back on the one line, but it was also just enough to push Arizona onto the two line, which was pretty clearly where it was going to end up.

The result was that T-Ranketology was one of the few brackets to nail both the ones and the twos. I'll take it.

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Big Ten Tourney madness

I think Chorlton is on a cruise in the Caribbean—oh, to be childless—so it looks like he'll lose this year's Big Ten Tourney Challenge by default. Nonetheless, I'm about to spend my requisite 20 seconds thinking about this and make my picks

Before we start, here are the current T-Rank odds, first assuming no home-court advantage for Maryland:

Now, if we give Maryland a one-half home-court advantage:

Play-in games:

Ohio State over Rutgers
Nebraska over Penn State

Second round:
Nebraska over Michigan St.
Northwestern over Ohio State
Iowa over Indiana
Michigan over Illinois

I'll be rooting for either Nebraska or Penn St. to beat Michigan St. so they have to sweat things out a little on Selection Sunday. Although MSU will probably win this game, I don't have a good feeling that they have a run in them, so I'm taking them out early for funsies.

I'd like to root against Northwestern as well, mainly so their fans go through the ultimate Selection Sunday Experience (one way or the other) but when I search my soul I find that I just do not have it in me.

Michigan over Purdue
Wisconsin over Iowa
Maryland over Northwestern
Minnesota over Nebraska

My earlier upset is robbing us of a third Minnesota / MSU game, which would be interesting if it happens. Michigan vs. Purdue is probably the game I most want to happen, since we just saw Michigan's spread-offense attack pick Purdue apart—will Purdue be able to adjust? Or will Michigan just not hit shots this time? In any event, Michigan seems like a bad match up for Purdue, and it's a tough draw for the 1-seed in its opening round game (Michigan is actually the third best Big Ten team in terms of adjusted efficiency, and was second-best in conference play).

Badgers would love to get Iowa again, I think, and it's not a team I see them losing to twice in short succession.

Michigan over Minnesota
Wisconsin over Maryland

Michigan over Wisconsin

My pick of Wisconsin to the final is pure homer, but I would love to see another Wisconsin-Michigan game. They've played two really tight, interesting games this year, and the Wagner - Happ battles have been great.

There you have it, that's how it's going down. Chorlton, if you're able to rouse yourself from your quarters and shake off the piƱa colada haze, put your picks in the comments.