Some thoughts on Nigel's Decision

As we all know, Nigel Hayes is contemplating whether to turn pro instead of returning for his senior year of college. The deadline for him to decide is May 25th.

Fans and pundits (including Dickie V himself) are nearly unanimous: Nigel, come back!

There are a few fans -- seemingly put off by Hayes's outspokenness on the NCAA's essential contradictions -- who think Nigel is gone. He's sick of college, they say. He'd rather do anything that play another year of basketball for free. 

I think that's wrong. Hayes has been very open about his thought-process: he wants to whatever will give him the best chance of having a long NBA career. If that means coming to back to college for another year, that's what he's going to do. He's not going to play in the Turkish league out of spite.

It would be an easy call if he was relatively assured of being drafted in the first round. That's a guaranteed tanker full of money to play basketball, and except in rare cases going pro in that situation is a no-brainer.

It would (will?) also be an easy call if Hayes is assured that no one will draft him at all. That's a virtually guaranteed ticket an extended stint in the D-League or Europe, and Nigel has been pretty clear that's not his goal.

But the situation is this: Nigel may well get drafted in the second round. That's not ideal, but it's not necessarily a dead end, either. A few things have changed recently that make getting drafted in the second round potentially not-so-bad:

1) NBA teams are starting to realize the value of second-round picks. Players like Draymond Green are showing that there's plenty of talent still left. And teams are free to negotiate any deal they want with second-round picks, so they can be creative about structuring deals with players who are intriguing and may well develop into something. 

2) In Hayes's case in particular, his "type" is something of the flavor of the month. "Position-less basketball" is the watchword, as everyone tries to copy the magic of the Warriors. A few years ago, Hayes might have been ignored as a tweener. But now there's a chance teams may key in on this as an attribute -- particularly given his rather freakish 7'3" wingspan.

So if Hayes is given some indication that he'll be taken in the second round by a team that is willing to work with him, that is a very intriguing and tantalizing opportunity.

The flip side of this is: can he really prove anything to pro teams with one more year of college basketball? Of course, if he come back and shoots 45% from three, he will raise his stock considerably. But how likely is that? And how much opportunity will he have in the strictures of the Wisconsin offense to show off the shooting guard skills that NBA teams would want to see out him? Unless he has a great year next year, or at least a great tourney run, the second round may well be his destiny no matter what. In that case, why not get started now?

Ultimately, I think Hayes probably will be back, because I don't think he's going to get any assurance of being drafted. He knows he can play better than he played last year, and a good senior year should at least assure him of a spot in the draft. But it's not a slam dunk.

Hot Take on the Brandon Knight Trade! AKA Old Fashioneds with Jimmy Boeheim.

Hot takes aren't always the pinnacle of the analysis spectrum, just ask friends and enemies of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, if there are any left. However, theories abound that the gut really does make the best instant decisions.  So, let's fire up that old tankard!

   

If the rumored trade stays as is (Bucks still need to clear two roster spots((sounds like Kenyon Martin will be waived, and who knows about Sanders)), the Bucks receive Michael Carter-Williams from the Sixers, and Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis from the Suns. (It looks like we also sent Kendall Marshall back to the Suns, but he's out for the rest of the year anyhow) Gotta say, the gut says, "I LOVE IT!" Even if this deal was getting Carter- Williams straight up for Knight, I think we come out on top, let alone adding a couple possible rotation guys.  It's actually similar to the deal which brought Knight to Milwaukee.  Instead of paying too much (read: market value for a starting point guard) for Brandon Jennings, who wasn't a perfect fit for whatever the Bucks were trying to be, we shipped him to Detroit for Knight (Middleton, et al.).  Instead of paying Knight too much this offseason or letting him walk, we shipped him out for a couple inexpensive years of Michael Carter-Williams.  If you're a team like the Bucks, and you don't know if a particular guy is part of the path forward, you're no doubt better off not paying him way too much for the next 4 or 5 years (See: Illyasova, Ersan and Sanders, Larry).

I imagine some pundits will argue the Bucks shouldn't be messing with their chemistry at this point, but that will end up being a Kornheiseresque talking point in an empty argument. This year's team, aiming for a 6 seed in the playoffs, is playing way above their depth with a hodgepodge of journeymen and roleplayers. Don't get me wrong, it's exciting to see good defense and Swiss Army Knife basketball, but they aren't going anywhere this year.  I can't think of another team who could have gotten BETTER after losing (for the year) their: "future superstar", a highly paid defense & rebounding big, and a quality backup point guard, not to mention several other multiweek injuries scattered around the rest of the roster.  Chalk that survival/evolution up to an overabundance of solid, veteran, rotation guys... and good coaching, right?  It's gotta be the coaching.  I mean, just look at OJ Mayo this year vs. OJ Mayo last year.

This is no doubt a move for down the road, and it's not going to hurt anything this year.  Let's hope there's not a hidden first rounder mixed somewhere in the fine print.  Back to the point, just who are these guys we're getting in return for Brandon Knight?

Plumlee- Let's be honest, it's hard to keep the Plumlees straight. It seems like one is good every year, and this year it's not Miles. He was starting for Phoenix last year, and putting up an 8 and 8.  But he's riding the pines this year.  I bet he gets some solid run for the Bucks this year, does Plumleeish things, and lets Henson be a little more flexible in the roles he's used in.  He's on the books for about $2 Million next year, the last year of his rookie deal.

Ennis- A rookie point guard from Syracuse, who played one very solid year in college.  He went 18th overall in a very deep 2014 draft, and was the 5th point guard taken.  He hasn't played much for the Suns this year, but that's not saying too much, as they were apparently following the Kahn blueprint of accumulating as many point guards as possible.  Unfortunately for them, it took until this year's trade deadline for Phoenix to realize there's only one ball to go around.  So, they traded 3 point guards (Dragic, Thomas, and Ennis) at the deadline, and added 2 (Knight and Marshall).  Ennis could be a sneaky good piece of this trade, especially under Jason Kidd's tutelage.  I really enjoyed watching him play at Syracuse last year.  He was very heady, was always under control, was clutch in some big moments, rarely turned the ball over, and played with so much poise for a Freshman.  He's a bit slight for the NBA game, and is not a particularly explosive player, but it's easy to see him as a backup point guard going forward.  His potent shooting stroke has translated to the D-League at least, where he's averaging 18 ppg, while hitting 50% of his shots.  He's under team control through 2018.  Keep an eye on him.

Carter-Williams- On the surface, this looks like the Bucks traded a very athletic, shoot first point guard who didn't create much, and got back a true point guard who can't shoot, but plays great defense, and is a much bigger and more complete player.  In this case, both books may really be their covers.  Granted, MCW has played on an historically awful 76ers team over the past few years, chucking it up there far too often, which has probably stunted his development.  And let's not forget that Brandon was an alternate for the All-Star Game this year, although his numbers truly are inflated on this Starless Bucks team.  In fact, that last sentence is what gives me the most hope about this trade.  If Knight gets paid this offseason like his numbers say he ought to, the Bucks could have been on the hook for at least $12 Million a year for 4 years of Knight, or two more years of MCW at $2.3 and then 3 Million.  For a team that's succeeding in large part because of it's Defense, the money saved over the next two years, and the resulting roster flexibility makes this look like a steal.

It's time for some fully Subjective Hot Take Fandom- OR, continuing to attempt to translate Collegiate success to the NBA level (See: Tyler Ennis paragraph above).  But really, let's be honest, who's watched much, if any of the Sixers three year shitshow?  Gotta speak to what you know- and I know I thoroughly enjoyed MCW's game at the college level, and that guy is closer to the guy we'll see in Milwaukee than the guy who's chucking it in Philly.  Even though he couldn't shoot a lick (still can't), he was so long (Bilas?  Bilas?), so solid defensively, such a good rebounder, and so darned competitive that the poor shooting could be overlooked.  He's the type of player who really did seem to make other guys better.  In fact, at the time of the wretched 2013 draft, I thought he should have been the #1 overall pick.  He didn't make me look like a complete idiot when he ran away with the Rookie of the Year Award.   He has been pretty good this year too, even if his numbers are a bit inflated.  Here's a stat that can't be all air- Carter-Williams and Russell Westbrook are the only NBA players averaging at least 15 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists.

Numbers aside, it's pretty exciting that we'll get to see MCW in a Bucks uniform for the next few years.  The ungodly positional wingspan between Giannis and Carter-Williams alone should be fascinating to watch, especially on defense.  And mark my words... kinda... I think Ennis can be a quality scoring point on the second unit.  Of course, I thought Jordan Taylor could do that in the NBA too, and he had an NBA body.  That's why we write on the internets instead of becoming Assistants to the Assistant General Manager of the Sacramento Kings.  Maybe I just have a thing for Syracuse Point Guards.  Maybe it's because Jimmy Boeheim is quite the drinking buddy, and has been deluding my thinking with his constant stream of libations and his fervent narration of days of yore.

Maybe Boeheim has been pulling a Madden and "driving" to away games, only to sip Old Fashioneds with the Bucks brass, whispering sweet nothings about how good his former Orangemen would look in a Bucks uniform.  For once, it seems Boeheim, the Bucks front office, and yours truly seem to be on the same page.  Maybe we can agree a tall, (6'6) athletic, defensive minded point guard is still an advantage in the modern NBA.  Maybe we all remember Jason Kidd was a point guard who used his size to his advantage, and specialized in making his teammates better.  Ask yourself this- did it ever seem like Kidd ever really was sold on Brandon Knight being "his guy"?  Maybe it's just an irritable bowel type of gut reaction, but I really do think Carter-Williams (and quite possibly Ennis) is going to flourish in Milwaukee.  Maybe Boeheim will put down the beer and the gun and realize his true calling is as a Bucks' Assistant Coach.  Maybe, just maybe this trade is just what the Bucks needed- to add another star, and become relevant in the next few years.  Maybe Scott Walker wasn't just full of hot shit when he told Wisconsin just how much the Bucks mean to this great state of ours.  What?  A bridge too far?  Stage Left?  Oh... Stage Right then.

    

2 year opt outs

I expect to see a lot of 2-year opt outs in the NBA contracts that will be signed later this week. There are two reasons for that, which are related. This will hopefully be good for the Bucks (more on that later).

The first is that the TV contracts for the NBA expire at that point, and if NBA ratings continue to go up there will be a large increase in revenue to the league. With the new CBA, 50% of that revenue goes to the players (down from about 57% in the previous CBA), meaning there could be a sizable increase in the salary cap for that season. The other reason is Lebron, as pretty much everything in the NBA is about Lebron.

I expect Lebron to resign with the Heat for a large contract but with a likely 2-year opt out. Lebron can get money anywhere he wants to go, but he also wants to win championships. He has a clear path to the finals with the Big 3 in a weak Eastern Conference so Miami just makes sense in the short run. Lebron knows about the TV money too, but that is probably less a factor in his decision than Wade’s knees. Does Wade have another season or two of elite level play, even if it is for only 50 regular season games and the playoffs? Probably. Does Wade have 4-5 more seasons of elite level play? Probably not. The 2-year opt out combined with the salary cap increase gives Lebron a chance to opt out and move on if needed, as well as opening the number of options he has due to the salary cap increase.

The Bucks should be in a decent position to take advantage of this, should it happen. The Bucks have 4 players with significant contracts expiring in 2 years (Ilyasova, Mayo, Pachullia, and Henson’s rookie deal). I don’t expect the Bucks to be able to bring in any big free agents with all that open cap space. However. the Bucks may be able to take advantage of a team desperate to clear space for a shot at Lebron. With about 25 million in expiring contracts the Bucks will have flexibility to move them for a quality player(s) on long term deal.

The path forward

Having watched a lot of bad Bucks basketball over the past many years I have found there is only one way to stomach it. You have to be able to watch the young players and see a path where they could fit on a really good basketball team, otherwise watching a team lose over and over is just boring. There was a path when Bogut had a healthy elbow and Jennings was a 19 year old scoring point. There was even a path (maybe not to a really good team, but at least an entertaining one) when the Bucks paired Jennings with Ellis in the back court and had Sanders to block shots, letting everyone run and have fun. Obviously neither of those paths worked out because of Bogut's injury, and Ellis' agent was a idiot. Each failure usually leads to a new path, but last season's team was really a void. Even a Bucks optimist like me had trouble seeing how these kids were going to be quality starters on a good team someday, other than Giannis who was a long way away. With the addition of Parker I can start to see a new path. Here is my vision of what a hopeful fan sees as a path to sustained success.

Good NBA teams usually have a rotation of 7-8 really good players, and 3-4 other capable players that just fit what the team needs. A team like Miami that has 3 superstars can get away with having more of the capable players that just fit what they need. The Bucks are not likely to get 3 players of that caliber, so I will focus on a more traditional team rotation. If I'm being optimistic, there are currently 5 Bucks who could fit into a rotation someday, although most of them are young and not there yet. Some of them may never get there, but this is all about seeing a path, not predicting the future.

The path starts with the 2 forwards the Bucks have recently drafted, as you may have imagined. They are young so they still have lots of room to grow, and you can imagine how they may fit someday if they keep getting better. Not all youngsters are going to keep getting better, but again this is about a hopeful path. It starts with Parker and Giannis as the starting forwards. Giannis and Parker can both handle and shoot so they will put perimeter pressure on a defense. If they can defend you can see this duo being very successful for a long time. If they both turn out to be max contract guys, the Bucks will be able to keep them for their 4 year rookie contracts and probably for another 4-5 year deal when they hit restricted free agency. If they are able to have a successful 8 years together in Milwaukee, then maybe when they are 27 and hit unrestricted free agency the Bucks will be able to convince them to stay.

Center is another story. I was not a believer in Sanders as a center before last season and his combination of stupidity off the court and poor play when he was out there didn't improve my opinion. He signed a 4 year extension before last season at a reasonable starting center rate of about 10 million per year, but given his antics last year he seems unmoveable right now. All that said, I do think Sanders is a good enough player to be in the rotation of a playoff team. I don't like him as a starting center, unless he is teamed with another big. He could excel playing next to a Boozer like player, like Noah does in Chicago. Against good NBA bigs he gets bullied, and if the Bucks are going to have 2 smaller/perimeter type forwards I think they need a more traditional center to make up for the rebounding and physicality. My hope is that Sanders plays like his old self this season, and some team in love with modern metrics (who all seem to love Sanders) trades us a traditional center for him. So Sanders counts as one of the 5, but not one I see in the long term path.

The 2 guard position is mostly a void. Mayo and Delfino will hold down the fort at the 2 this year unless the Bucks are able to pull off a trade. Neither player will be with the Bucks past the lengths of their current contracts. My hope is that the Bucks hit a top pick in the Lottery next year and are able to draft a guard next year to fill in here long term.

Point guard is also not a great situation, but not as bad as the 2 spot. Knight came over in the Jennings trade and was supposed to be a more traditional point. When all the veteran Bucks got hurt and they went young (tanked) Knight was forced into a scoring point role. He did score 17.9 per game and shot a respectable and career best 42.2% from the floor, but his 3pt% dropped from 38.0 and 36.7 in his first 2 years to 32.5 last year. He is not a great play maker at the point, and he is a decent but not great defender, but he is only 22 entering his 4th season. He will be a restricted free agent after this year so the Bucks will have a decision to make about him. If he can go back to playing a more traditional point, and allow Parker to take on the scoring load he could be an effective starter. If he can shoot in the low 40s and hit 3s in the high 30s I can see a role for him in playoff caliber rotation. Not the highest praise, but that's what he is.

The last player of the 5 is Henson, who I had hoped would take a big jump last year given the opportunity for minutes with the youth movement. Just looking at the stats, he did get in more games, more starts, more points, more rebounds, and more blocks which all sounds pretty good. For whatever reason he still did not seize the opportunity to move in as a starter. Maybe that was the coaches, but Pachulia and Ilyasova played less than 55 games, and Sanders just 23. All 3 had one of their worst seasons as pros and still Henson couldn't get in there. Henson doesn't have youth on his side like Giannis as he was a polished college Junior when he was drafted and will be 24 this season. Nevertheless I see him in the Bucks path forward. I don't think he will be a starter, but I see him coming off the bench for major minutes. He is too slender to play with big starting centers, but off the bench he can play the 4 or 5 with a 2nd unit. I imagine him in a 5 man front court rotation with Giannis, Parker, and a true center to be determined with Henson and a wing to be determined coming off the bench.

The rest of the team is probably not going to be around long. Ilyasova and Pachulia will play out their contracts if the Bucks can't trade them. Middleton has some promise, but with the forwards the Bucks have invested in, he probably won't get an opportunity. Maybe the Bucks trade him for a backup guard or point so he gets a chance elsewhere. Wolters may have a chance to be one of the 3-4 capable players. I saw a stat about him on NBA.com that he had a 3.28 assist to turnover ratio, and a plus/minus for the entire season of -26. Considering that the Bucks were outscored by about 700 points this year and Wolters didn't just play in garbage time minutes that stat was interesting.

So that's the Bucks' much brighter future. A better but still bad season this year while Parker, and Giannis develop. They find a combo guard and a wing to come off the bench in free agency, or maybe a 2nd rounder develops. A trade of Sanders and a lottery guard in next years draft and they are off to 14 years of success. Just like that.

Parker- 3 or 4

I'm home sick today so I will continue my comments on the Bucks' newest player. Parker played the 4-spot at Duke, but has been projected by most as a 3 in the NBA. This is typical as most players tend to shift down a spot from college to the pros unless they are a true center or a point guard. The same thing has been said about Wiggins being a 2 or 3 in the NBA. As players are coming out at 19 years old now, many are still developing and will start playing small and move into their natural position as their body matures and their game develops. The question about these guys is are they versatile, meaning they can play multiple positions effectively, or are the tweeners meaning they struggle no matter where you put them.

When it comes to determining a player's position in the NBA, there is a saying: you are what you can defend. One of the reasons I liked Wiggins over Parker was defense, and I feel Wiggins can play 2 or 3 because he can defend either position at the NBA level from day 1. In addition, with his athleticism he may be a guy who can guard 3 positions as his game develops. When you can guard multiple positions that allows your coach to play a lot of combinations around you, because you can always slide your better defender around. If you need more shooting, you slide him over to 3 and bring in a guard at 2. If you need more rebounding, you play him at 2 and let a bigger forward play the 3.

Parker should be able to score no matter where the Bucks play him. He was very effective at Duke playing in the post, and averaged 3 offensive rebounds per game. He was equally effective in transition and on the perimeter where he shot 36% from 3. We will see how he does against taller and more physical NBA defenders, but his all around offensive game leads one to think he will find a way to be effective. His body has led many to think he fits better as a 4 as he was listed at about 250lbs before the weight became a draft issue, and now he lists himself at 235. The fact he played the 4 at Duke and averaged 8.7 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game lends to the idea he can play the 4.

So what are the Bucks to do? Play him at the 3 where he can play on the perimeter more and take advantage of his shooting and play making skills, but may struggle against smaller quicker wings on defense? Do they play him at the 4 where he can take advantage of bigger players who have to respect his outside game but aren't as adept at guarding the perimeter, but let him take the physical pounding of guarding a 4. Think of who he will have to play. Would you rather see him matched up on Kevin Durant, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, or Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, and Zach Randolph?

I think the answer will depend mostly on the development of the Greek Freak. Much of the Bucks' future will depend on the development of Giannis, who Bucks' management seems to be in love with. Giannis as a young 18 year old playing in the NBA had the look of a natural 3 with his ball handling and perimeter skills. At 6'9" he had the length and wing span you love at that position in combination with elite athletic ability. He, like Wiggins, has the potential to defend multiple positions and that may be the answer. If Giannis can guard the 3 or 4, Parker can guard the other. Hammond said as much in his pre-draft interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Have you had discussions about how players' positions may change based on No. 2 pick? 

"We've talked about that. I think, once again, that these guys are multiple position guys helps that discussion. For that matter, I think Giannis is going to be a multiple position player some day. He came last September he was 6-9, 190 (lbs.) and today he's almost 6-11, 217 pounds. I think Giannis is a guy that is going to be able to play, at his size, he's going to be able to play some small forward and he's going to play some power forward some day."

So there it is. Parker will be playing the 3.5. In the end having guys that neatly fit into positions doesn't matter nearly as much as having guys that fit together. The Bucks hopefully have found 2 forwards that will fit together very well for a long time. Will they find enough other pieces to fit with them, and turn this into the type of winning team I remember watching growing up in the 80s? We'll see.

It makes sense

I am doubtful that Cleveland ever really had doubts Wiggins was the guy. Athletes of his caliber are rare. Athletes that have basketball skill, great character, and youth are rarer. Athletes that actually try all the time on defense, despite developing in an AAU circuit that cares as much about defense as the kids on the playground, are crazy rare. Parker is no doubt, a better offensive player right now. Wiggins is no doubt, a better defender right now. Is it easier to teach a kid to improve his offense, or defense? I wanted Wiggins for the Bucks, but they didn't get him so now I have to hope I am wrong and he sucks. Or at least that if he is great, that he takes several years to develop and then bolts Cleveland for hopefully some team out west.

Enough moping. Time to move on.

My love of Wiggins does not limit my enthusiasm for Parker. He should be a very good player for several years. ESPN threw up a Big Dog comparison on their draft coverage, and I think that may be dead on. He seems like a guy who could carry the scoring in any given game much like Big Dog did, and Michael Redd did after him. Neither of those guys was good enough to win playoff games by themselves, and I don't think Parker will be either. That's OK. The Bucks will need to find some help for him.

This is a good pick, but also a management pick. Parker is a guy that can sell tickets and build enthusiasm for the next few years, even if the team mostly loses. That should be just long enough to get a new arena built. I don't doubt that John Hammond was on board with this pick, but it doesn't really fit his draft profile. Hammond takes high end potential guys. His drafts have included:

• Joe Alexander- Obviously didn't work out, but he was drafted because he tested off the charts at the combine for athleticism, which is the point I'm trying to make here.
• Brandon Jennings- Best high school player the year before going to Europe instead of college.
• Larry Sanders- Great athlete but raw as could be.
• Tobias Harris- Was certainly no big time athlete, but he was the youngest player in the draft. In the NBA youth= upside.
• John Henson- Maybe Hammond safest pick as a college Junior and proven rebounder, but a weird body type.
• The Greak Freak- another crazy athlete who needs development

If Hammond was allowed to just run this team the way he wants, I feel like he would have gone Embiid. One thing Hammond has shown is the willingness to draft players regardless of position. They have a ton of forwards, and yet they keep drafting them. The question will be: are they acquiring quality assets they can trade to improve their team, or will they just allow other teams to steal their guys because they know they can't play them all? Time will tell. Hard to say if Hammond will be with the Bucks much longer. He's not management's guy after all, and new management tends to like their own guys.

Bucks get Number Two: thoughts on Joel Embiid

I haven't really followed the NBA closely for many years, but it has come to my attention that the Bucks came in second in the NBA draft lottery last night.

For over a year, we've been hearing about how loaded the 2014 draft class would be. And it does appear to be relatively deep, at least in the lottery picks. But there's no Lebron -- no surefire number one.

And that brings me to Joel Embiid, the 7-footer from Kansas who many are touting as the number one prospect in the draft. Although I am a college basketball fanatic, I can't say for sure if I've ever seen Embiid play (other than in highlights). He hurt his back late last year and missed the NCAA tournament, so he didn't get any time in the college basketball limelight. But he did get a bunch of hype mid-season as the best player in the game.

Still, he strikes me as a verrry risky pick, at least for a number one. First, there's the obvious: he's a big man with back problems at age 18. Second, looking at his stats he appears to be athletic but raw. In his season at Kansas, he was an elite rebounder at both ends, and a very efficient player on offense. But remember -- he was a seven-footer surrounded by the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Wayne Selden, and Perry Ellis. In other words, he could not be the focus of a defense.

Despite this, in his 28 games at Kansas, Embiid never had a dominating performance. He never took more than nine shots in a game, and he never scored more 18 points in a game. Based on my research, every number one pick that played college basketball has had at least one 20-point game. (Most, of course, had many.)

And it isn't as though Embiid got off to a slow start and then performed at a consistently high level late in the season. In his last eight games before getting shut down, he had three games where he didn't reach double figures in scoring. He went 6-20 from the field in those three games, with just four offensive rebounds.

Finally, look at Embiid's numbers against elite competition. The Big 12 was a solid conference last year but other than Kansas there were no top-20 Kenpom teams. Kansas did play four top-20 teams in the non-conference schedule though, and here are Embiid's performances:

Opponent	Score	Min	ORtg	%Ps	Pts	2PM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OR	DR	A	TO	Blk
Duke	W, 94-83	20	102	21	2	1-3	0-1	0-2	4	3	5	1	1
Villanova	L, 63-59	12	99	41	10	4-6	0-0	2-4	1	4	1	2	0
Florida	L, 67-61	30	99	12	6	3-6	0-0	0-1	0	6	2	1	3
SDSU	L, 61-57	26	117	26	12	3-5	0-0	6-7	5	7	3	3	5

Not terrible, by any means, but also not numbers that make you think this guy would be the number one pick in the NBA draft. To be fair, Wiggins didn't set the world on fire in those games either: he scored 22, 10, 26, and 14, but took a lot of shots to get those points. Still, 26 points (on 15 shots) and 11 rebounds at Florida is a superstar kind of game.

So if he were drafted number one, Embiid would be breaking new ground, and would be an extreme example of the NBA's recent drive toward drafting on potential rather than polish. With guys like Noah Vonleh and Julius Randle around -- guys who I am very confident are ready to play in the NBA -- it would be tempting to trade down a few spots if other teams really are itching for Embiid.

What do you guys think -- should the Bucks take Embiid if Cleveland passes on him?

Going Pro

Sam Dekker started out this season projected as a possible mid to late first round pick in this year's NBA draft. He dropped a bit in the early season, but has been showing back up in the 20s again. This is all very premature as there is a lot of season left, and much of the player's draft status will be determined at the tryouts and camps after the season.

I would love to see Dekker play another season or 2 at UW, but I am of the opinion that any UW player who could be a first-round pick should go pro. With the new collective bargaining agreement, NBA first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts and will make over a million dollars even if they get cut and don't make their NBA roster. Even the 30th pick in the draft will get a minimum salary of about $750,000 each year. That is a lot of money. Too much money for a 20 year old kid to turn down. It's enough money to give you the opportunity to do whatever you want to do for the rest of your life, as long as that isn't buying drugs, cars, and other crap.

It's great for fans if players stick around, but there is just too much risk in not taking that money if they can be a first round pick. One blown out knee and there goes your million dollars.

End of an era for Bucks

The Bucks signed and traded Brandon Jennings today to the Detroit Pistons for Brandon Knight and some throw in players.

Just a few years ago the Bucks were an up-and-coming team with Andrew Bogut earning 3rd -team all-NBA and Jennings as a rookie superstar with oodles of potential. Then Bogut shattered his elbow, and the rest is sad Bucks history. That team went to Game 7 in round 1 of the playoffs against a solid Hawks team without the injured Bogut, but he never returned to the player he was and Jennings never made that leap from potential to star.

When the Bucks shunned Jennings and offered Jeff Teague a 4-year 32-million-dollar deal it was obvious Jennings was no longer in the plans. This Bucks team looks ready to go straight in the tank. I didn't think Kohl would allow a team so bad to be put on the floor, but I was wrong. This team looks headed to a starting lineup of Knight, Mayo, Delfino, Ilyasova and Sanders. Lottery here we come. At least there will be dirt cheap tickets available by January.

Go Badgers

With the signing of Jon Leuer to the Grizzlies, the Badgers now have 3 players in the NBA who have earned contracts beyond their rookie deals. Greg Stiemsma also signed a new deal with the Pelicans this week. While Devin Harris's deal with Dallas was put on hold until his toe injury heals, he was poised to sign a 3-year 9-million-dollar deal. Maybe he's not technically in the league right now, but once his foot heals he will certainly find a home on a team that needs guard depth. Seems weird to say, but Devin Harris will be entering his 10th year in the NBA this season.

I haven't done the research to back it up, but I venture to say no Badger coach has had 3 players get to multiple NBA contracts during his tenure. Go Badgers.

Interesting Bucks move

The Bucks traded Luc Richard Mbah-A-Moute to the Kings for a 2nd-round pick today in what is basically a salary dump move. Luc signed a 4-year deal for $19 million and was 2 years into that deal with the Bucks. At the time he signed the deal it was a reasonable contract for a role-playing, sometime-starter, defensive specialist. At that time Luc was still just 24 and had some potential to grow his offensive game and develop into a solid starter. That didn't happen over the last 2 seasons in which Luc battled through injuries and missed about a fourth of the games. He remained a quality defensive player but never developed into anything more. At 26 he is still young and can be a valuable role player, but he did not outperform his modest salary. He is now overpaid based on his production, but not ridiculously so.

The question is why make a salary dump. Moves like this usually happen when a team needs salary cap flexibility, something the Bucks probably don't need this year. The Bucks are not going to pay the luxury tax, and there is no free agent they could sign that would require them to make such a maneuver. Sometimes a team will make a move like this to clear playing time for a youngster. If that youngster is the new draft pick Giannis who is not ready for NBA competition then the Bucks may be planning to really tank this season. If they had not made the Reddick trade and still had Tobias Harris then this would fit, but they did.

Do they intend to start Delfino or Ilyasova at the 3? Probably not. There is probably another deal (either free agent or trade) that has yet to be announced but has already been made.

Perhaps this will give the Monta fans hope the Bucks can still sign him with added flexibility. We can still dream until he signs elsewhere.

3 year plan

John Hammond signed an extension to be the Bucks general manager through the 2015-2016 season, 3 full seasons from now. His newly hired coach Larry Drew just signed a contract for 3 years with a team option for a 4th. The Bucks just signed OJ Mayo to a 3-year 24-million-dollar contract, and Zaza Pachulia to a 3-year 16-million-dollar contract. Ersan Ilyasova signed a 5-year contract last season, but only the first 4 years and $32 million are guaranteed meaning it will effectively expire after 3 more years assuming he doesn't vastly outperform his deal and earn the 5th year. That leaves the Bucks with about 23 million in expiring contracts after the 2015-16 season. The Bucks are high on last year's rookie John Henson and his rookie deal will expire after the 2015-16 season. If he turns out to be the player they are hoping he becomes then he will certainly eat up some of that salary cap space on his 2nd contract.

Through Hammond's tenure the Bucks have done a pretty good job dumping bad contracts and the have just one currently in Drew Gooden's 5-year 32-million-dollar deal. That deal was inked in 2010 and has just 2 years remaining. The only other veteran contract on the books is a reasonable deal with Mbah-a-Moute for 4 years and $19 million which is 2 years in. Both Mbah-a-Moute and Gooden come off the books the season before Hammond's contract expires.

Udoh, Ish Smith, and Sanders will all be free agents after this season, but only Sanders is expected to stick around after this year. His value is difficult to figure. He has developed into a good player but is far from an all-star talent. The Bucks will have the right to match any offer as he will be a restricted free agent so the market will figure out what he is worth after another full season as a starter.

There are no players currently under contract past the current John Hammond contract, which bring us to the two players who will soon. Giannis Antetokounmpo was just drafted by the Bucks, but will likely not play any significant minutes for at least 2 seasons. The question is when do the Bucks sign him. Hammonds said after the draft that they intended to sign him right away and bring him in to practice/play with the Bucks, or more likely in the D league. That would start the clock ticking immediately on his 4-year rookie contract. If he stays overseas for a year or two then he would still be on his rookie deal whenever he came to the Bucks. There is a pretty high likelihood that he is a bust, as most 15th picks are. His future will not likely determine Hammond's future unless he turns into a star, in which case Hammond looks like a genius and won't have to worry about his next contract. What about the other soon-to-be Buck, Brandon Jennings.

There is no doubt the Bucks will sign Jennings, whether it is by negotiation, or by using their matching rights on another teams offer since he is a restricted free agent. He is the only marketable player on a bad team and the Bucks gain nothing by letting him walk. Kohl will not allow his only money making player to walk out the door for a few extra million dollars. That doesn't mean they will keep him for the length of the contract, as he will be trade bait the instant he signs. The only question is do the Bucks really believe in him enough to use their Bird rights on him and give him a 5-year deal, or will they just give him/match on a 4-year deal to limit their long-term exposure. My guess is the later.

So where does the 3-year plan take the Bucks? In the short term, probably to the cellar of the central division. The Bucks won only 38 games last year, and they replaced Monta Ellis with OJ Mayo so it's hard to see how this team will be better. Next season looks like a lottery season, but next year is about sorting out the young guys more than winning anything. Jennings and Mayo will hog the ball and the shots, and hopefully not destroy their trade value in the process. The question the Bucks need to figure out is if Henson and Sanders are good enough to be the staring bigs on a playoff team, or if they are just more journeymen assets the Bucks will use to make future trades.

After this season, the Bucks should have a lottery pick in a strong draft. That pick will probably be the deciding factor in Hammond's future. Hammond will have to decide about Sanders next season, and he will hopefully have enough information to decide what Henson will be. If Sanders, Henson and Giannis all pan out, and the 2014 pick is a hit, then the Bucks could return to the playoffs by the end of the 3 year plan. That seems like a lot to ask, but it's probably all Bucks fans can hope for right now.

A new stadium and an ownership change to a stable local ownership group is unfortunately about as likely, but far more important to the Bucks' future.

Draft thoughts

I had two college basketball related thoughts about tonight's NBA draft:

1) Two Hoosiers were drafted in the top 4. What would Bo Ryan do with two top-4 NBA picks on the same team in the same year? I'll tell you what he'd do: he'd successfully petition to move his team up to the NBA, and the Badgers would finish fourth in the Eastern Conference but lose a seven-game series in the second round of the NBA playoffs. People would say he just can't win the big one.

2) A total of four players from Michigan and Indiana were drafted in the first round tonight. Coincidentally, the Badgers played Michigan and Indiana four times last year. They won four times, too.

Bucks' Draft

The prospects for the Bucks in this year's draft are not good, as you would expect when a team doesn't pick until #15. However it's not all doom and gloom for the Bucks draft this year.

This year's draft is not considered to be a very good class overall. There is no super talent at the top. There is no Lebron, Durant, or Howard in this years class for a really bad team to get excited about. This is more of a foundation laying draft with a bunch of players who look like they will be solid NBA players, but none that look like perennial all-stars let alone franchise changing stars.

As with most years, we will look back on this draft in 2-3 years and say how did everyone miss on that guy. That's where the Bucks prospects (albeit a long shot) don't look so bad. In a draft where 1-10 aren't that different and 11-30 are even less so the Bucks have as good a chance as any team to hit on a diamond in the rough.

It is very likely that McLemore and Noel will go 1 and 2 in some order. Neither blows you away as a sure fire #1 pick, but both showed enough flashes of talent to move into the top 2 spots. The rest of the top 10 spots in no special order will go Porter, Burke, Oladipo, Bennett, Len, Carter-Williams, Zeller and McCollum. If any of these players fell to 15 the Bucks would be lucky to get them.

After the top 10, there are a bunch of players the Bucks could take. It's hard to say who they will fall in love with.

The obvious lack of depth at guard makes that an easy position for them to take. With Monta opting out of his contract, and Reddick a free agent there are a ton of minutes available for a rookie to grab. Caldwell-Pope is the player most think the Bucks are targeting. He has more length at 6'6" than the Bucks guards last year, but it's likely he is off the board at 15.

At point guard there is Dennis Schroeder from Germany who many people seemed to have fallen in love with so much that he has been discussed as a top 10 pick. Who knows if Kohl is one of his admirers, but he could be a nice backup and eventual replacement for Jennings if the Bucks sign him and then have to trade him.

The small forward position got less interesting when Dario Saric pulled his name out of the draft. If he had stayed in I think he would have been a good pick had he made it to 15. The other small forward is Shabazz Muhammed who also may not make it to 15. He was the hot prospect coming out of high school, but there are so many weird things going on around this guy that it's hard not to think bust. From his coach at UCLA declaring him in the draft, to his Asian little league age issues (is he 18 or 22), to his crazy father this is one guy I hope is gone at 15 so the Bucks don't have to take him. It's no fun watching a kid self destruct as I think he may.

Then there's a ton of bigs that will be available for the Bucks to pick from. Adams is the most likely to be off the board before the Bucks pick as he is the only other true center (7'0" and 255lbs) than Len with 1st round potential. In today's NBA many teams don't really play a true center, but all you have to do is look at the playoff teams to understand that a true center is still a valuable position (Duncan, Hibbert, Gasol, Noah, Bogut, Chandler). The rest of the hybrid center-power forwards the Bucks will have to pick from include Olynyk, Plumlee, and Gobert who all offer some different skills.

The Bucks will likely end up with one of these 7 players if they keep the pick. The other option is trade, which Hammonds has been more than willing to do in the past.

My prediction: Gorgui Dieng. The Bucks just keep acquiring 6'11" shot blockers with limited offense, so why not continue to corner the market.

I will be disappointed if I am correct.

Poor Bucks

My Bucks got some bad news this week when Monta Ellis opted out of the final year of his contract to test the free agent market. The Bucks had reportedly offered him a 2 year extension had he not opted out, making it a 3 year deal for about 36 million. Monta is the best player on a mediocre team and probably will get a bigger 4 year deal on the open market. Without any idea what direction this team is going in, it's hard to blame anyone for leaving. With the new NBA rules it is unlikely the Bucks will get anything in return in a sign and trade. They will just get worse.

This makes it more likely the Bucks will go completely in the tank next year. There is very little chance they will attract any player of his caliber, and even to get someone close they will have to grossly overpay. Kohl will likely do this since he wants to win now and keep public support behind a new stadium. They will have no choice to match an offer for Jennings if Ellis leaves, even if it is for a ridiculous amount of money. So starts the cycle of dumping bad contracts that I had hoped the Bucks had exited.

At least there is the Draft to look forward to soon. I'll follow this up with a post about the Bucks bleak prospects in the draft. Posts have been hard to come by this summer. Too many sunny days to spend time typing.

Where do the Bucks go from here?

The Bucks just finished a season that was pretty much what everyone expected. They had enough talent to play about .500 basketball and get into the last playoff spot. For the first time in a while the Bucks will have some roster flexibility when free agency opens this summer. The Bucks only have salary commitments to 7 players beyond this season including 6 forwards/centers- Ilyasova, Gooden, Sanders, Udoh, Mbah-A-Moute, and John Henson. Monta Ellis has an 11 million player option for next season that you would assume he will opt out of in favor of a long term guaranteed deal. Jennings is a restricted free agent and the Bucks can match any offer he gets. I see basically 3 ways forward for this team.

1) Blow it up. The Bucks have no chance of winning a championship in the next 2-3 years unless the Heat team plane goes down in a crash, or their big 3 all suffer major injuries. Neither of which seem very likely. Championships should be the goal, so why not go in the tank yet again, hope for a couple top picks in the next couple years and hope you hit on a superstar in the draft you can build a roster around for a decade. The Bucks can clean up their salary cap even more and then spend in a few years when they Heat will be older and Lebron may have opted out of his contract and moved to L.A.

Seems simple, but it's not. It's harder to land a superstar in the draft then it seems. Not every team is lucky enough to land Durant, Westbrook and Harden in consecutive drafts, let alone one player of their caliber. A team has to lose a lot to get those high picks, and fan support can fade a lot in that time. As you may recall Seattle lost the Thunder in 2008 in the midst of all that losing. The losing wasn't the only issue, but it was a factor.

The Bucks have a less than stable ownership situation as Kohl isn't getting any younger and he has been trying to sell the team to someone who will keep them in Milwaukee for a decade without success. The Bradley center is old and the Bucks and the city are still in the process of finding a long term stadium solution. All of this means that tanking the team just isn't good business, unless your goal is to move out of Milwaukee. I don't see Kohl going that way, so I put the chances of the Bucks Blowing it up at about 2%.

2) Go big. With the flexibility the Bucks have they could take some chances and try to pull off some big moves to make this team a contender in their division. This would mean taking some risks and moving some of the young talent they have acquired. The Bucks could start by resigning their two best players in Ellis, and Jennings. They could find a team looking to dump a big salary and bring in some talent by trading some of their young players. Think if the Lakers blow up their roster and dump Pau Gasol's 2 years for 40 million, and the Bucks give up Ilyasova (a nice stretch 4 to play next to Howard) and throw in Udoh (center depth) and Mbah-a-Moute (a replacement for Artest). Yes, I used the ESPN trade machine and this trade would work within the NBA rules. I doubt the Lakers would do this, but you get the idea.

Don't see this happening, but it's more likely than Blowing it up. It would fit the business model of winning now and trying to get in new ownership and a new stadium. Kohl wants his team to win now to sell more tickets which makes the team more attractive to potential buyers. If the team is winning and draws local support it becomes easier to sell public financing of a stadium than a team that is losing and no one cares if they leave. There is still the possibility the big contract player gets hurt, or gets old and sucks, then they are back to blowing it up in a couple years. Chances- 8%.

3) Stay the course- you can do the math. Chances- 90%. The Bucks have the right to match any contract offer Jennings gets, and he is the only marketable player on the roster so he will almost certainly be back. Sorry frontcourt fans, but no one is coming to games to see Ilyasova or Sanders play even if they are more efficient players by some measures. The Bucks may try to bring back Ellis or JJ Redick, or they may just sign a couple other free agent guards. The Bucks are high on their front court and all the young players, especially Sanders and Henson. Seems likely they give those guys another year of seasoning before they start making decisions about trading them or making long term commitments to them.

This is not a super exciting path, as it likely leads to another season of about .500 basketball and maybe a last playoff spot. Not very exciting, but probably in the long term interests of keeping a team in Milwaukee, so I guess it may be the best path for now.

Another coaching change for Bucks

There wasn't much chance Bucks' interim coach Jim Boylan was going to hang around past this season, but you would have to think any chance is now gone after his benching of Brandon Jennings, and continued issues over playing time. Jennings is a restricted free agent after this season and his minutes and production down the stretch and in the playoffs will have some effect on his next contract. I don't mean to say all he cares about is the money, as NBA stars are rarely happy about benchings regardless of their contract status. Some of Jennings' quotes can be found on the Journal-Sentinel's Buck's Blog. 

Jennings was benched after being beat for a layup in the 3rd quater against Philly and did not play the rest of the game. The MJS quoted him "This is the third time I've been benched in the second half and it hasn't been under (former coach Scott) Skiles".

The drama continued in a blow out win last night when the Bucks won 131-102, but Jennings played just 24 minutes. Jennings was quoted after the game saying "From where I was looking at, it looked like it was fun," and when asked by the MJS if this is the way the Bucks want to play, at such an up-tempo pace, Jennings said: "You would have to ask (coach) Jim Boylan."

What's going on here is hard to say. If this was an established coach I would think they were sending a message to the team and Jennings. Boylan certainly knows he has no chance to return as Buck's coach, so why the benching if there is no long term reward to the team. Is there a personal score to settle? I doubt it. Boylan doesn't seem the type and management wouldn't have any problem dumping him if there was. If you want more conspiracy theories then maybe management knows they have no option but to match whatever offer he gets a restricted free agent, so devaluing him now could save them some money. This seems even more unlikely than the Boylan score settling.

It will be interesting to see how the minutes get divided up down the stretch, and especially in the playoffs.

Can good basketball sell?

Wanted to post this great article on ESPN about the NBA and the lack of big time individual scorers.

The gist is that the rule changes from a few years back that allowed zone defenses and more help defense have changed the game but not the overall scoring. Teams have to pass the ball instead of letting a star get the ball on a wing and go one on one on a clear out. This emphasises shooting and ball movement over breaking down defenders off the dribble to get to the rim or free throw line.

This is a good change for people like me who like watching good basketball, but maybe not for the NBA, whose business model is based on marketing stars. Increased assists for the best players just don't draw the attention of casual fans who only look at the easiest stat to understand- scoring numbers. Fewer players that put up big scoring numbers means fewer marketable stars that are billed in the nightly matchups. There will still be some of the Lebron vs Kobe games, but there will be fewer of the secondary stars that casual fans will still come out to see.

Will this trend last? My hope is yes, but my guess is no. The rules haven't hurt any major playoff matchups yet as the Lakers, Celtics and Heat (all major markets) have all been to the finals of late which the league loves. The league is flush with marketable stars right now in Kobe, Lebron, Durant, Melo, etc. but if this trend continues who will be the stars of the future to market 7-10 years from now. Will people pay to go see the marquee NBA matchup of two players who average 18 points, 9 assists and 7 rebounds?

There may be more rule changes in the coming years.