Thursday, May 30, 2013

When you gotta go...

According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, former Badger and current Seahawks offensive lineman John Moffitt has been banned from a Seattle mall for urinating in the parking lot. Yet he returned to the mall, and once again urinated in the parking lot:
According to police, Moffitt had been banned from Bellevue Square mall — and all Kemper Freeman properties — for a year starting on Jan. 21, 2012. But Moffitt returned to the mall on June 14, and was spotted by Bellevue Square security allegedly urinating near a vehicle parked near Paddy Coyne’s bar, according to an incident report. 
Security called police, and officers looked for Moffitt near the Washington Square condos, where he was known to often hang out, according to the report. Police found two “very large males” running along the street, and one officer yelled for Moffitt to stop, the report states. Moffitt allegedly looked directly at one of the pursuing officers, then ran into the building. 
A week later, police showed photos of Moffitt to the Bellevue Square security officer who said Moffitt had urinated near a car, and made a positive identification of Moffitt as their alleged perp. Moffitt was later charged with criminal trespass and obstruction, both misdemeanors. 
Court records also indicate that Moffitt was caught trespassing again on Aug. 25, this time at Lincoln Square mall in Bellevue — another Kemper property. In that incident, officers escorted Moffitt out of the bar at Pearl restaurant without incident before taking him into custody., and now faces charges of trespassing and disorderly conduct.
There is really only one explanation:

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Overrated or Underseeded?

This is another post analyzing the data from my having run simulations of all the NCAA tournaments since 2003 using Ken Pomeroy's end-of-year data.

One common refrain about the Pomeroy data is that it consistently overrates the Badgers. The Badgers are almost always ranked higher in Pomeroy's ratings than they are in the human AP poll. For instance, the Badgers have finished ranked in the AP top-25 nine times in the since 2003. (That's every year except 2006 and 2009—amazing!) In eight of those nine years, they finished with a higher rank in the final Pomeroy ratings. The 2007 team is the only exception: it finished 6th in the final AP poll but 8th in the final Pomeroy ratings. But even that may be explained by the fact that the Pomeroy ratings reflect that team's rather poor NCAA tournament showing while the final AP poll does not.

Still, this difference is easy to overstate. Although the Badgers are consistently rated higher in the Pomeroy ratings, the difference is not usually that big. They've never finished more than 10 spots higher in the Pomeroy ratings than the AP, and the average difference is about 5.5. In other words, about one seed-line.

Also, one other pattern you see every year is that the Badgers start out highly ranked in Pomeroy but unranked or low-ranked in the AP, and over the course of the year the AP ranking inches toward the Pomeroy ranking. The Badgers have started the season in the AP top-20 just three times under Bo ('04, '07, and '12) but have finished there eight times. And only once—in 2009, when they were initially ranked 25th—have the Badgers finished lower in the AP than they started. So it's clear that the humans underrate the Badgers far more than the Pomeroy ratings overrate them.

Next, let's look at tourney performance, where there are some stark indications that Pomeroy's system has overrated the Badgers. Here is my data on the biggest tournament underacheivers—in terms of expected wins versus actual wins—since 2003:


There's Wisconsin, checking in at 8th worst. To explain this a little, what this means is that my simulations have Wisconsin winning an average of 18 games over the past 11 seasons, and they've actually won only 15. The total difference is 3.2 games below Pomeroy par.

The discrepancy is why some tempo-free adherents are frustrated by the Badgers. They don't perform as well in the tournament as Pomeroy's tempo-free stats indicate they should.

But, again, let's not overstate this. Before last season's rare first-round exit, Wisconsin was at just 1.7 games below par. That would still put them in the lower 25, but that's a far cry from holding Wisconsin up as proof that tempo-free stats are bogus. Another point: among the teams even worse than the Badgers in this metric is Duke. Although you'll often hear people making fun of Duke's occasional tournament flops, there's no outcry that they are drastically overrated by Pomeroy's system. (In fact, the one year that there were such complaints—when Duke was number 1 in the Pomeroy ratings all year despite being seemingly not-so-great—Duke went ahead and won the national championship.)

What's more, there is another explanation for Wisconsin's less-than-expected tournament success: underseeding. Because humans consistently think Wisconsin isn't as good as Pomeroy's system thinks it is, Wisconsin tends to get a worse seed in the tournament than Pomeroy's system thinks it should. That means that Wisconsin has to play tougher games sooner in the tournament. Of course, this is partly accounted for in my data because the "expected wins" I'm using as a baseline are calculated by anticipating actual match-ups; so if the Badgers are put on a collision course with a great team in the second round, that will hold down their expected wins somewhat. But I think this underseeding hypothesis is at least partly to blame here.

The most egregious example of Wisconsin's underseeding was 2004. That was Devin Harris's junior year, and the Badgers were very good. They finished 10th in the final AP poll. They won the Big Ten tournament. But they received a six-seed and were forced to play a second-round game against a very, very good 3-seed in Pitt—which was ranked 9th in the final AP poll and had been in contention for a 1-seed going into the final weekend of the regular season. That's right: the committee set up a battle of top-ten teams in the second round. The tragedy is that the 2004 team was probably Wisconsin's very best chance to make a run to the Final Four, given that it featured a true superstar in Devin Harris—by far the most talented player ever to play for Bo Ryan.

Alas.

Another way to analyze the Badgers is Performance Against Seed Expectation (PASE). We can look at the numbers and see how many actual wins the average 1-seed, 2-seed, 3-seed, etc. gets. The best way to do this is probably to go all the way back to 1985, when the tournament expanded to 64 teams, but for consistency I will just use the data I have, from 2003-2013 (see chart on right).
Most teams that underachieve in Pomeroy expected wins also underachieve on PASE. But not the Badgers, who are in fact slight overachievers, with an overall PASE of +0.7 (good for 47th out of 210 tourney teams since 2003).

This discrepancy leads to the starkest stat of all. If you subtract PASE from the Expected Wins, you get a differential in which the Badgers are an extreme outlier: 

Are these outliers mis-seeded, whether high or low, or are they mis-rated? Or some combination? Or neither? Hard to tell. 

The only thing I can tell for sure is that Wisconsin is an extreme outlier—the only team above +/- 2.9 in this differential, and they're a full 35% further from the mean (0) than the second-furthest team (Gonzaga). (In case you're wondering, that number is almost six standard deviations from the mean. 

The easiest interpretation of Wisconsin's extreme outlier status in this metric is that Wisconsin has generally been correctly seeded and generally been overrated by Pomeroy's rating. In other words: dog bites man.  

--Bart Torvik

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Sweet 16s Since 2003

Bo Ryan is often accused of underachieving in the post-season. Whether this is true depends a lot on how you define success. Personally, I think making the Sweet 16 is all you can ask, given how much randomness there is in college basketball, particularly in its single-elimination post-season.

When it comes to making Sweet 16s, Bo Ryan's record is unimpeachable. Since 2003 (Bo's second season at UW) Wisconsin has been to the Sweet 16 five times. Only five teams have been to more Sweet 16s in that span: Duke (8), Kentucky (8), Michigan State (7), Syracuse (6), and North Carolina (6).

Here's the full list of teams that have been to five or more Sweet 16s since 2003:


Team
S16s
Duke
8
Kansas
8
Michigan State
7
Syracuse
6
North Carolina
6
Ohio State
5
Wisconsin
5
Kentucky
5
Arizona
5
Xavier
5
Louisville
5
Connecticut
5
Florida
5

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Draft picks and NCAA tournament wins

In my free time I've done quite a bit of analysis of the NCAA tournaments since 2003, particularly their relation to the Kenpom data. But I haven't had much time to really dig into the results or blog about them. Today, however, I saw a tweet about how Louisville has had only two players drafted since entering the Big East. That reminded me that I've compiled a set of data that lists all the First Round picks teams have had since 2003 and compares that to how many NCAA tournament games they've won in that span. One thing to note: this data does not include players that will be drafted this year, which explains why Michigan doesn't appear yet. (Actually I've put Michigan in at the bottom as one of the teams with zero first round picks but more than five tourney wins. That will change this summer, obviously.) Anyhow, here it is, sorted first by 1st round picks, and then by wins:


Team
Actual Ws
1st Rd Pix
North Carolina
28
13
Kansas
30
11
Connecticut
23
11
Kentucky
22
11
Duke
24
9
Texas
15
9
Ohio State
17
7
Florida
23
6
Syracuse
20
6
UCLA
15
6
Washington
8
6
Arizona
14
5
Georgia Tech
7
5
Wake
5
5
Louisville
22
4
Illinois
11
4
Georgetown
8
4
Boston College
5
4
Memphis
15
3
Marquette
13
3
Oklahoma State
8
3
North Carolina State
6
3
Oregon
6
3
Stanford
4
3
Nevada
4
3
Florida State
3
3
Michigan State
23
2
Wisconsin
15
2
Xavier
14
2
Villanova
12
2
Gonzaga
11
2
Virginia Commonwealth
7
2
Baylor
6
2
Missouri
5
2
Texas A&M
5
2
LSU
5
2
Vandy
5
2
Brigham Young
4
2
St. Joes
3
2
Southern Cal
3
2
New Mexico
2
2
Arizona State
2
2
Colorado
1
2
Butler
16
1
West Virginia
12
1
Purdue
9
1
Oklahoma
8
1
Tennessee
8
1
Indiana
7
1
Maryland
6
1
Kansas State
6
1
Cincinnati
5
1
Nevada Las Vegas
5
1
San Diego St.
3
1
Mississippi State
3
1
Washington State
3
1
Cal
3
1
Iowa State
3
1
Davidson
3
1
Utah
2
1
Temple
2
1
Arkansas
1
1
Minnesota
1
1
Colorado State
1
1
St. Johns
0
1
South Carolina
0
1
Georgia
0
1
Pitt
13
0
Michigan
7
0
Wichita State
6
0
George Mason
5
0


Obviously, there's a strong correlation between first-round talent and NCAA wins:



















Unsurprisingly, Wisconsin is among the outliers. Only Michigan State and Butler have won more NCAA games with two or fewer first-round picks since 2003. What's more, only those two teams and Louisville have won more games with five or fewer first-round picks.

I'm sure the results would be even more stark if either restricted to "lottery picks" or expanded to second-round picks.