What's a mid major?

In earlier days there was a clear distinction between the big 6 and the rest of college basketball. There were years when a conference would be in a down cycle and it would be insultingly compared to an up-cycle A10 or Conference USA, but this never lasted. The big 6 just had too many advantages to stay down very long. Then the big 6 decided to get bigger and the Big East died, or at least only exists in a zombie-like form.

There are still 5 major conferences, but with all the shuffling, is there now a middle class of college basketball? While perusing the changes in at AP poll this week I noticed that 7 of the top 14 teams are from outside the big 5. The new American conference has 2 of those teams, and the zombie Big East has 2 more. There is also the always competitive A10, and recently competitive Mountain West. These conferences are more than just Gonzaga and the rest conferences, as they have multiple quality teams. They don't have the depth of talent that the Big 5 do, but they are not really mid Majors anymore either.

Much was made of the Mega conferences destroying the competitive balance as they sucked up every quality team in a major market, but so far the new middle class seems to be thriving in college basketball.

Overachievers & Underachievers

There've been some rather unlikely goings on in the Big Ten so far.

Both Ohio State and Wisconsin got through the non-conference season undefeated, but both have badly underachieved in the conference season so far.

Northwestern suffered home losses to Depaul and Illinois State, among many others, but is now 5-5 in the Big Ten after notching road wins at Indiana, at Wisconsin, and at Minnesota.

Here's a chart showing how each Big Ten team has performed compared to expectations (as calculated using their current Kenpom ratings):

Northwestern's performance, in particular, has been remarkable. Based on the Kenpom profile, they had only a 6 percent chance of winning 5 or more of their first 10 games. Will they regress to the mean? Probably, but who knows. 

By contrast, there was a 20% chance that OSU would have 4 or fewer wins, and a 15% chance that Wisconsin would. They already have regressed to the mean after their lucky non-con runs: OSU's overall expected record is 17-5 (which is their actual record) and Wisconsin's is 16-6 (compared to 17-5 actual). Both teams spent three-quarters of the season playing like 1-seeds and the last quarter playing like NIT teams.

Big Ten Home teams

Went 0-3 today. Big Ten teams are now just 29-23 at home.

Bucky free throws

The Badgers have been much better at getting to the line this season, and a big part of that has been the play of Nigel Hayes. He reminds me a lot of  Jared Sullinger when he was a freshman with the way he gets into defenders and gets his shot into their arms to force the officials call. Sullinger obviously was a bigger part of the offense as a freshman than Hayes, and he finished his freshman season with 267 FTA and 410 FGA.

According to this site Nigel is currently 48th in the nation, and 3rd in the Big Ten in free throw rate (free throw attempts/field goal attempts). The two Big Ten players ahead of him are lower usage players, Iowa's Anthony Clemmons and PSU's Geno Thorpe. Neither has more than 36FGA. Nigel is at 91 FGA, and 85 FTA. I couldn't find a way to compare Nigel to other players with similar usage, but perhaps when I have more time I'll investigate. I would guess he is near the top in the country for free throw rate for similar usage.

Friday Facts: Where's the home cookin'?

Time for another installment of Friday Facts, my weekly look at the Big Ten's per-possession stats, adjusted for opponent and venue. This week I break it down by home (HEM) and road (VEM), as well:

Not a whole lot different than last week. MSU, Iowa, and Michigan are clearly a cut above the rest of the league, and this shows in their records, their raw efficiency margins, and their adjusted efficiency margins. Wisconsin, OSU, and Minnesota are fighting for the coveted fourth seed. Everyone else is not so good, but good enough to pull some upsets (apparently). Northwestern is creeping up on Illinois, but is still dogged by those blowout home losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. 

I posted the other day about how Michigan State has been just an average Big Ten team at home, noting that they'd played the same teams at home as Nebraska had, except for Indiana, who came to visit Lincoln last night. Since MSU beat Indiana by five at home, I went ahead and predicted a five-point victory for Nebraska. BOOM!

Speaking of Nebraska, you might be surprised to see Nebraska actually dropped from -.04 to -.05 this week, despite beating both Minnesota and Indiana at home. The reason for this is that an average Big Ten team would have been expected to win those games by slightly larger margins. That said, Nebraska appears to be the team that the Friday Facts thought they were.

Anyhow, Michigan State is not alone in its home woes. Nearly every team—all but Minnesota—has performed better (compared to average) on the road. This shows up in a number of surprising home losses: Indiana and Wisconsin to Northwestern; Michigan State to Michigan; Ohio State to Iowa, etc. Simply put, home-court advantage hasn't been as big a deal this year in the Big Ten as it usually is. But maybe things will even out... 

Introducing the Torvik Big Ten Thrill Quotient

One of the side-benefits of my awesome spreadsheet that lets me produce adjusted efficiency margins for Big Ten teams is that it sort of automatically creates something akin to a "game quality score." The adjusted EM figure starts with a calculation of how each team in a particular game would do against an average Big Ten opponent in that venue. If there's a game with a good road team playing a good home team, it is sometimes the case that the average home team would be expected to lose, and the average road team would be expected to lose. So, the lower the expected EM of the average team is, the better the matchup.

For example, in the Iowa at Ohio State game, the average road team against Ohio State is expected to lose by .14 points per possession and the average home team is expected to lose to Iowa by about .02 points per possession. So you get a "game quality score" of 16. This score is basically just a straight function of the quality of the teams involved. So the highest quality score of the season so far was Iowa at Michigan, because those are the two best teams right now according to Kenpom. The lowest quality game so far was Purdue at Northwestern, at -22.

This number was more or less an organic creation of my adjusted EM spreadsheet, but it gave me an idea to create something similar to Kenpom's Thrill Score. So I did, and the result is Torvik's Thrill Quotient (which is a completely different thing, and not to be confused with, Kenpom's Thrill Score). The inputs to the Thrill Quotient are: (1) game quality score; (2) expected competitiveness (closer the better); and (3) pace (cuz people love the pace).

So, in case you were wondering, here are the most fan-tasitc games remaining in Big Ten play:

I would produce a chart of the least fan-tastic games remaining, but it's more efficient to just refer you to Northwestern's schedule. Northwestern is by far the worst team in the Big Ten (on a per-possession basis) and they play slower than anyone else in the conference. So there is nothing fan-tastic about watching their games, especially given that they have likely road blowout losses awaiting them at Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Minnesota. All those games have TQs in the 20s. 

What's up with Michigan State at home?

Michigan State is 18-2 overall, and 7-1 in conference, and they've put that record together despite significant injuries to pretty much every one of their important players. Pretty impressive.

But when you look at their performance so far, one thing jumps out: this team has not played well at home. Both their losses are at home: a disturbing blowout loss to North Carolina, and this weekend's loss to Michigan. By themselves, those losses probably wouldn't be cause for concern, given that MSU has won every other game. But they haven't exactly set the world on fire in their home wins, at least in conference play:

OSU, 72-68 (OT)
Minn, 87-75 (OT)
Ind., 71-66

Last week I debuted "Friday Facts" to show the "adjusted" efficiency margins in Big Ten play. At that point, Michigan State was number one in that metric. But even then, this was largely based on their impressive road performances (blowouts of lower-division teams Penn State, Indiana, Northwestern, and Illinois). One cool aspect of the adjusted EM is that I can break it down to home and road performances. Here are the splits, ordered by the home margin ("HEM"):

So Michigan State has just been treading water—an average Big Ten team—at home, on par with Nebraska. In fact, Nebraska's performance at home has been eerily similar against an almost identical schedule:

L, 71-70 to Michigan
W, 68-62 over OSU
W, 82-78 over Minnesota

A close loss to Michigan (check), and close wins over OSU and Minnesota (check, check). As luck would have it, Nebraska plays Indiana at home on Thursday, so after that game Nebraska and Michigan State will have played the same four teams at home. (Might I be so bold as to predict a 5-point win for the Huskers?)

So what's going on? There are at least two possibilities. First, it could be that this is just randomness, and Michigan State has just happened to have its poorer performances at home. Second, it could be Michigan State isn't quite as good as we might think they are. On the other hand, this could bode well for Michigan State's chances in the post-season, when there are no home games.

Michigan State has built up its impressive road margin against the bottom half of the league. Its remaining road games are against Iowa (tomorrow), Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, and Ohio State. It will be interesting to see how well their numbers hold up against that slate.

Going Pro

Sam Dekker started out this season projected as a possible mid to late first round pick in this year's NBA draft. He dropped a bit in the early season, but has been showing back up in the 20s again. This is all very premature as there is a lot of season left, and much of the player's draft status will be determined at the tryouts and camps after the season.

I would love to see Dekker play another season or 2 at UW, but I am of the opinion that any UW player who could be a first-round pick should go pro. With the new collective bargaining agreement, NBA first round picks are guaranteed 2 year contracts and will make over a million dollars even if they get cut and don't make their NBA roster. Even the 30th pick in the draft will get a minimum salary of about $750,000 each year. That is a lot of money. Too much money for a 20 year old kid to turn down. It's enough money to give you the opportunity to do whatever you want to do for the rest of your life, as long as that isn't buying drugs, cars, and other crap.

It's great for fans if players stick around, but there is just too much risk in not taking that money if they can be a first round pick. One blown out knee and there goes your million dollars.

The 2 foul question

First of all it's good to be back after a nice long hiatus overseas, but unfortunately my Badgers don't seem to be able to win when I am not around. They must have been hung over from the lack of my presence against Minnesota, but they returned to their winning ways yesterday. I promise I will not take anymore overseas trips this season. I also expect they will not lose another game until the dreaded back to back road games against Iowa and MI. Even I don't have the power to help them overcome a back to back road affair vs. ranked Big Ten opponents. On to the post.

Just one game after benching Kaminsky for the rest of the 2nd half against Minnesota due to picking up his 2nd foul in the first half, Ryan put him back in the game in the first half multiple times after doing the same against Purdue. There are pros and cons to either strategy, and I don't really feel either one is right or wrong. This is one of those issues much like fouling at the end of a game when up by 3, that some people seem to have strangely strong feelings about, when in reality it is about a 50-50 type of situation.

Matt Painter also put Hammonds back into the game after he collected his 2nd foul. Hammonds only played about a minute and a half into the 1st half before he got his 2 fouls, and then when put back in the game he gave Painter all of 30 more seconds before collecting his 3rd. Hammonds has been a hacker this season, so it is not that surprising that he picked up his 3rd right away. Kaminsky is not as foul prone, but on his first series on the floor after picking up his 2nd foul he almost climbed the back of a Purdue player going for an offensive board and got his 3rd. You could see him pulling back his arms as he realized the folly of what he was doing trying to get a rebound over an opposing player when he already had 2 fouls.

In general I like the idea of sitting a guy after he gets 2 fouls in the first half. The primary reason is that there is no better teacher to a young college player than spending some time on the pine. While some fouls are the result of bad calls or just being in the wrong place at the wrong time, the vast majority are the player's fault. Spending a little time watching your teammates play and possibly struggle without you is the best medicine to remind players that they need to mind their hands and move their feet. There is also the rather large risk that the player will keep picking up fouls and take the choice out of the coaches hands, as Hammonds did.

I don't like keeping a player on the floor with 2 early fouls because it messes up your defense. The player must play cautiously knowing they have 2 fouls, so they can't challenge shots, work over screens, or even box out as they would normally. It also effects the entire team defense because the player can't rotate as aggressively and the player can't help as they normally would. When you are defending a screen and roll and the other guy is basically useless because he can't close out on the shooter, hedge or really anything that might risk getting a cheap 3rd foul it screws up your whole defensive plan. It's not like you can hide the fact a guy has 2 fouls, there is that giant scoreboard glaring at you from center court with that big 2. Every good coach will make sure all his players know that, and whoever is matched up on that player should be attacking them at every opportunity.

Then there is the human element of the game. We have all played in games when your head is just not on quite right. Often these are the games when we get into foul trouble because we are making mistakes. Getting called for fouls is frustrating, especially when you think they were bad calls. Getting tossed back into the game after getting 2 fouls when you are already frustrated is a recipe for making another mistake.

All that being said, I don't really have a problem if a coach plays a guy after getting his second foul in the first half. There are players that just don't foul much, and if a coach played that guy in the 2 foul situation I wouldn't criticize him for it. I also think there are definitely circumstances that merit a change in coaching philosophy. For example, if you are playing in a win or go home game in the NCAA and your star player gets his 2nd early in the half. Your team starts to struggle and the game appears to be getting away from you, then put your star player back in and take your chances. If you are a bad mid major team and you are playing against a ranked team and are hanging with them and a star player gets his 2nd foul, take a chance and leave him in. You only get so many of these opportunities. Much like an NFL coach is more likely to go for it on 4th down in the playoffs, the risk-reward equation in any single game may be different than what you usually do on a normal basis.

Friday Facts

John Gasaway has come out with this season's first full-fledged "Tuesday Truths"—his indispensable weekly breakdown of the conference-only efficiency margins for every team in every conference worth caring about.

But the Tuesday Truths can be deceptive. The efficiency margin is calculated like so: points scored minus points allowed, divided by number of possessions. There is no accounting for strength of opponent. By the end of the season, this matters little, as we can expect things to more or less even out. But early in the season, differing schedules can make a big difference.

So I took a stab at producing an adjusted efficiency margin for the Big Ten. For each game, I calculate the difference between a team's actual efficiency margin and the expected efficiency margin of an "average" Big Ten team against that particular opponent at that particular venue. That difference is adjusted efficiency margin. Add up each game for each team, and you get their total adjusted efficiency margin.

To illustrate, let's look at Iowa versus Wisconsin, at Wisconsin. The average Big Ten team—that is, a team with adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies at the average of all Big Ten teams—would be expected to lose to Wisconsin at Wisconsin by 17 points per 100 possessions. In fact, Iowa lost by four points in a 70 possession game, which comes out to 6 points per 100 possessions. Thus, Iowa's adjusted efficiency margin for that game was +11 per 100 possessions, or 0.11 per possession.

On the flip side, the average Big Ten team playing Iowa at home would be expected to lose by 1.3 points per 100 possessions, and Wisconsin won by 6 per 100. So Wisconsin was above average too—+0.07 per possession.

When you add up each team's performances from all their games you get their total adjusted efficiency margins:

There's no real surprise at the top or very bottom of this chart. Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa have clearly performed the best in conference play so far, and that shows up in the raw efficiency margins. But the adjusted margins give Iowa credit for its close losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan, and so Iowa just barely trails Michigan in the adjusted ranking.

Minnesota also gets credit for its tougher schedule and better wins. Although its raw efficiency margin is negative overall—placing it behind Purdue—the adjusted margin gets Minnesota ahead of Purdue and into the conference's upper division, where it clearly belongs based on its play so far.

The other notable outlier is Nebraska, which jumps ahead of three teams (Indiana, Illinois, and Penn State) at the bottom of the standings. Nebraska's raw efficiency margin gets killed by its big blowout loss to Ohio State, and doesn't reflect any credit for its respectably close losses to Michigan and at Iowa, or for the impressiveness of its win over Ohio State. These results are why Nebraska has actually moved ahead of Illinois in the Kenpom ratings, and the Adjusted EM accounts for them. 

Title hopes dashed?

After two upset losses this week, the Badgers' chances of getting a share of the Big Ten title have taken a big hit. According to my spreadsheet, they now have only about a 10% chance of getting a share. Here are a couple looks at how the race has changed since Wednesday.

First, the contenders' chances of getting to various Big Ten win totals:

Second, in line graph form!

Okay, I'll stop now.

Update on the Big Ten race

Here's a chart showing each of the contenders' current chances of getting to various win totals:

Two things:

1) Last night's loss has devastated Ohio State's chances of winning a share of the title, which are now down to about 4%.

2) Michigan State has opened up a small but significant lead on UW. Prior to the Spartans' win over Northwestern, it was more or less a dead heat. But a combination of that win and some resulting improvement in the Kenpom ratings has lifted MSU's status to minor favorite.

Big Ten Record

Kenpom now projects the Badgers to go 15-3 in the Big Ten—a full two games better than Iowa and Michigan State.

I've been doing some simulations of the remaining Big Ten schedule, and should have a post up over at Bucky's 5th Quarter soon. As a teaser, here's a chart of the Badgers's chances of getting to various win totals in Big Ten play, using Kenpom win probabilities:

The Seth Davis "Buy" Curse

So far, things are looking pretty bad for Seth's portfolio. There were eight teams that Seth put a "buy" rating on that I told you to sell:

1) Butler, which lost to Depaul at home last night. Yikes.
2) Missouri, which lost to Georgia at home on Weds. Yikes.
3) Notre Dame, which lost to NC State at home on Tues. Yikes.
4) Oregon, which lost Cal at home last night. Yikes.
5) Colorado, which squeaked by Washington State in OT.
6) UMass, which squeaked by St. Joe's at home.
7) Oklahoma, which lost at home to Kansas. (No shocker, but nothing special either.)
8) Syracuse, which blew out Va. Tech at home.

So far, this is a brutal slaughter. Here's one way to put this in perspective: after just one game, four of these teams have fallen more than ten spots in the Kenpom ratings: Butler (-15), Missouri (-17), Notre Dame (-15), and Oregon (-10). On average, the eight teams have fallen about 7 spots. After one game.

Here's another way to put it in perspective. According to their Kenpom ratings at the time Davis rated a them a buy, the chance that Butler, Missouri, Notre Dame, and Oregon would all lose at home in their next game was 0.09%. That's not 9%, that's nine one-hundredths of a percent. In other words, one-in-a-thousand.

Chance cannot explain this. Something more sinister must be at work here. Is Davis pumping and dumping? Or does the Monkey have powers that cannot be explained by science or math?

Seth versus me

Just to put my money where my mouth is, I went ahead and made my own "buy, sell, hold" picks. Here's where I differ with Seth Davis:

Seth Davis versus a monkey

Seth Davis has his annual "Taking Stock" column out, where he advises whether to "buy, sell, or hold" imaginary stock in a bunch of college basketball teams.

Last year I made fun of his prognostication skills, and concluded that he did worse than you'd expect a monkey to do.

As promised, this year I let a monkey pick whether to buy, sell, or hold the same group of teams. Here are the teams where Seth and the Monkey disagree:

Cheer for the monkey!

(By the way, no surprise: Seth is selling his stock in the Badgers.)

StatWatch™: Hayes FTAs

Badgers' forward Nigel Hayes has been a really nice surprise this year. He's got some issues on defense, but he's shown an ability to play with his back to the basket and get to the rim that we haven't seen in a while—especially not from a freshman.

His hard work is resulting in a lot of free throws. He's got 40 free throw attempts in just the last four games, which is sensational. I took a look at the best four-game FTA stretches in the Bo Ryan era, and here is the result:

1) K. Taylor, 43: OSU, NU, Pur., IL in 2006-07 (50 over 5, 56 over 6)

2) Hughes, 41: Duke, GSU, GB, Marq. in 2009-10

3) J. Taylor, 41: MSU, Mich., Pur., Neb in 2011-12 (but had 0 against Michigan! And 42 over 5.)

4) Harris, 40: Minn, NU, Iowa, OSU in 2003-04 (0-1 against Iowa, 47 over 5, 57 over 6)

5) Harris, 40: first 4 games of 2003-04 (45 over 5)

6) Tucker, 40: Pitt, Iowa, MSU, MN 2005-06 (had 49 over 5)

Most of these performances were by point guards, probably largely inflated by late-game free throws. Alando in 05-06 is the only similar stretch by a Badger forward. And he was a starter who was getting a lot more minutes than Hayes.

Hayes's effectiveness will presumably go down a little bit as opposing coaches get more tape on him. But so far he has been an absolute beast.

Will the Badgers get to No. 1?

I did some investigating and posted it over at Bucky's 5th Quarter.

Comparing the Preseason Computer Ratings

Since we're about half-way through the college basketball regular season, I thought it'd be a good time to check in on the performance of the major preseason ratings systems: mine, Pomeroy's, Team Rankings (David Hess), and Dan Hanner's. Behold:

These are the current Top 50 in the Pomeroy ratings, and the first four columns after the team names are the where each system put them in the preseason. Cells shaded green show which teams each system predicted to be in the Top 50. The highest rated team that none of the systems predicted to be in the Top 50 is UMass.

The next four columns (labeled "off") show how much better or worse each system rated each particular team compared to the other systems. This is calculated by comparing how far off a particular system's prediction was, and then comparing it to the average of how far off the other three systems were. For example, No. 39 Florida State comes out as +46 for the T-Rank because the T-Rank was only 3 spots low in its prediction for FSU, but the other three systems averaged 49 spots low. This is by far the biggest "hit" for any system (for teams currently ranked in the top 50). 

The biggest miss was Pomeroy's projection for Arkansas.

One way to measure the relative performance of the systems against each other is to add up the "off" columns (which sum to zero when all four are put together), with higher totals being better. The result:

1.  T-Rank +54

2.  Hanner +38

3.  Hess -23

4.  Kenpom -69

There are other ways of analyzing the relative performances, but none of them are so flattering to T-Rank, so they will not be publicized at this time.

The ultimate test, of course, will be the NCAA tournament's S-Curve.

Badgers at Northwestern

I will be at tonight's game with my daughter Ivy.

The last time I went to the the UW-Northwestern game here in Evanston, Josh Gasser had a triple-double. And then the Packers beat the Bears in the NFC Championship game later that day.

That will be hard to top.

The Surprising and Impressive Badgers

I've got a post up over at Bucky's 5th Quarter that takes a look at college basketball's remaining unbeaten teams. In short, the Badgers have been both surprising and impressive.

StatWatch™: Sam Dekker leading in Points & Rebounds

After today's double-double, Sam Dekker has now surpassed Frank Kaminsky as the Badgers' leading scorer and extended his lead in the rebounding department.

Under Bo Ryan, the only players to lead the team in both scoring and rebounding are Alando Tucker, Brian Butch, and Jon Leuer.

Greek Freak Update

Giannis made his first NBA start last night against the Knicks. I did not think Giannis would start a game this year, and maybe not next year either. His learning curve has been accelerated by the injuries to small forwards ahead of him on the depth chart, Carlos Defino and Caron Butler. It also has helped that the Bucks have had to play small with more injuries to starting and backup centers Larry Sanders and Zaza Pachulia. The Bucks have the worst record in the NBA, and since this is a season for tanking there is little reason not to play the young Buck and try to develop him.

 

Giannis played 42 minutes before fouling out against the Knicks in a game that extended into 2 overtimes before the Bucks lost yet again. Giannis scored 10 points on 2-3FG and 6-7FT with 7reb, 2assists, 2steals, 1block, 3turnovers. On the season he has played in 20 of 25 games averaging 19.4 minutes, 6.2 points, 4.1reb, 1.1 assists, 0.6steals, 0.7blocks, 1.0turnovers and 2.0fouls. He is shooting 49.4%FG, and 28.6%3ptFG. He has been put in a role to limit his inexperience and allow his athleticism to work for him. In the preseason Giannis was given more free reign and the result was tons of turnovers and fouls along with a few spectacular plays that caught the attention of NBA coaches and executives. During the regular season he is usually posted on the wing where he is not really a part of the offense, but he gets an open shot now and then. More importantly it limits his turnovers and allows him to go the glass on the move from the wing where he has made some impressive put backs.

The Bucks try (mostly unsuccessfully) to run because their offense is so bad, and Giannis has shown his ability to finish in transition and make a spectacular pass. For every big dunk or nice pass there are many more lapses. Against the Knicks he was caught guarding Andrea Bargnani on the perimeter who cannot do anything out there but shoot. Giannis got caught looking and Bargnani drained a 3 as Giannis realized he was late on the close out. These mistakes are quite common, but not unforgiveable for a kid that just turned 19. Hopefully he will learn from these mistakes. Even with all the mistakes Giannis is way ahead of where I figured he would be at this point in his career. He is already an acceptable NBA player. A long way from a great NBA player, a good NBA player, or even decent NBA player, but still not bad for a kid that never played against college basketball talent let alone the likes of Carmelo Anthony who he guarded at times against the Knicks.

I have given up rooting for the Bucks this year, or even just trying to enjoy some good basketball (unless I am watching the Spurs fundamentally destroy the Bucks). I still watch the games, but I'm not really watching the Bucks. I'm just watching Giannis and Henson to see how they play, and how they develop. Sadly this is far more interesting than watching the Bucks. Tonight Giannis got the ball on the wing, took a couple dribbles to create space and calmly drained a step back 3 as the shot clock was winding down. The splash plays like that give me hope that I could be watching him as an All-Star caliber player some day. For now I'll just have to settle for watching a young kid learn.

Weekend College Basketball Picks

No Badger game again this weekend, but there are some interesting games. I noticed that the hoops writers at cbssports.com made picks against the spread for 10 of the more interesting games this weekend, so I thought I'd make my picks for those games as well. To be clear: I would never gamble on basketball, because the point spread is so fickle. But this is a way to maybe make my life a little more interesting and fun, so screw you. Chorlton, I dare you to beat me. You too, Osterholm (who is in danger of having his new posting rights revoked on the basis of inactivity.)

Notre Dame at Ohio State -8
This is what I'm talking about with point spreads in college basketball. I know Ohio State will win, but by how much? It's likely to come down to: (1) does Notre Dame make a couple of late three-pointers? and (2) does Ohio State make its low-leverage free throws?

Notre Dame is coming off a neutral court win over mediocre Indiana, but they've got a couple of bad losses. Ohio State has won every game by double digits, though Delaware hung close with them the other night.

Notre Dame can score, and this should be a low-pace affair. So I like Notre Dame to cover but lose. (This follows my first rule of thumb: if all three CBS guys picked the favorite to cover, I'm going the other way.)

UPDATE: This game is actually in Nee York, which makes it semi-home for Notre Dame if anything, and I therefore withdraw my statement that "I know OSU will win."

Michigan State at Texas +3
Michigan State still has injury problems, and Texas is coming off a shocking victory at North Carolina. If Texas wins this game, they will have cobbled together a tourney-worthy non-conference resume. But that seems unlikely, as they just squeaked by Mercer, UT-San Antonio, Vandy, and Temple (all sub-100 teams in the Kenpom ratings).

One thing that makes me want to pick Texas is that they had a preseason T-Rank of 43, and a preseason Kenpom rating of 80. So they are moving in the right direction, and I want it to be the case that my algorithm saw something Kenpom's didn't. I root for the T-Rank.

But it's just hard to imagine that Michigan State loses this game, and three points doesn't seem like enough. So I'm taking MSU to win and cover.

Oklahoma St. at Colorado +7
This is a battle between two teams the T-Rank underrated. It had Oklahoma State at 19 and Colorado at 66, compared to Kenpom preseason ratings of 4 and 39. I'd rather have it been wrong about Colorado, since that was a bigger outlier, so I'll take Oklahoma State to win and cover.

BYU at Oregon -10
Here's a T-Rank special: BYU was 64 and Oregon was 22 compared to Kenpom 48 and 56. Oregon has no moved up to 20 and BYU is still at 47, so I'm rooting for a big Oregon win.

But 10 points?  That's tough. It will be a high-pace game between two teams who don't play defense. So Oregon could certainly run away things late. Still, it's just so easy for a team to make even a blow-out look close with some late buckets by scrubs. And I wouldn't be shocked by a BYU outright win here.

But I'll go with my rooting interest: Oregon to win and cover.

Georgetown at Kansas -8
I will take the points in this one, but Kansas wins. Kansas has played a brutal schedule, and it continues here. There has been some foolish talk about Kansas given their schedule. Talk like about how Tyler Ennis has been more impressive than Andrew Wiggins (his fellow Canadian). That's nonsense. Kansas has lost to three really good teams away from home. They aren't going to lose at home. But T-Rank tells me G'Town has underachieved, so I'll root for them to keep it close in the loss.

Belmont at Kentucky -17
Ah, who the hell knows. Belmont did win at North Carolina, but they aren't very good this year. They've lost 3 of their last 4, including not-so-good losses to South Dakota St. and Denver on the road. They might well be due to just lay an egg. But this game is a random number generator, so I will go with my heart: Belmont covers in a loss.

Gonzaga at Kansas St. +6
A home underdog in college basketball is a powerful force, but this game is actually in Wichita, not the little apple. Despite my first rule of thumb, I will take Gonzaga to win and cover.

UMass at Florida St. +2
Obviously I'm rooting for the Seminoles in this game. Upset special! Bonus rooting interest is to eliminate Umass from the "ranks of the unbeaten."

Missouri at Illinois +1
It's a pick 'em game on a neutral court. Missouri is undefeated and therefore due for a loss. But Missouri was a T-Rank outlier at 27th (compared to 49 in Kenpom preseason and 45 now). So I'll take Missouri. A push here wouldn't surprise me.

UConn at Washington +5
Previously undefeated UConn just lost a shocker at home to Stanford, and now faces another PAC-12 opponent for its first road game. This is Washington's only chance for an impressive non-conference win, but they are not a good team.

UConn was #10 in the T-Rank, so on that basis I should be cheering for them. On the other hand, I essentially called their home loss to Stanford, despite a certain writer's claim that they didn't face any "possible" losses until their game at SMU. It would be pretty sweet if they lost two of these unlosable games. For that reason, I will take Washington to win outright.

If I do well, I'll brag about these picks next week. If I don't, I will delete this post.

Surprise team: Florida State

Last night, Florida State destroyed Charlotte, 106-62. Charlotte is an okay team that upset Michigan on a neutral court (although they have some bad losses as well). Florida State also has a nice win over VCU, and its only losses are close ones to Michigan (OT, neutral court), @Florida (67-66), and @Minnesota (71-66).

As a result, they've risen from 105th to 34th in the Kenpom ratings, and they are the only team in the current top 50 that I didn't bother to rate in my own T-Rank preseason ratings. I didn't bother to rank them because they finished 121st in last year's Kenpom ratings, and didn't turn up in the top 75 of any of the other preseason rating systems. Since I was just trying to get a top 40 or 50, this seemed like a safe margin.

But the nice thing about T-Rank is that I can go back and retroactively rank teams since it is all based on historical data and projected rosters. When I did this, I got a nice surprise: turns out, Florida State would have been ranked number 36 in the T-Rank. Nailed it! (Sort of.)

Why was Florida State rated so highly in the T-Rank? Well, they returned four starters from last year's team, including three freshmen. My system expects players who play as freshmen to take a big leap as sophomores. They also returned a good amount of their minutes, about 70%. Third, last year was an aberration for Leonard Hamilton, who had been to the previous four NCAA tournaments; my system uses data from the previous three seasons to come up with the T-Rank, so the effect of one bad season can be deemphasized.

Why was Florida State so underrated by the pundits and other rating systems? Well, Florida State wasn't bringing in any top recruits or transfers. In fact, two players transferred out (Terrance Shannon and Terry Whisnant), though neither was a major contributor on last year's team. Most importantly, they lost by far their best player from last year's team, Michael Snaer. So there were big question marks surrounding this team.

For the record, here are the other teams currently in the Kenpom top-75 that I did not rate for the preseason T-Rank:

52: SMU
56: Drexel
61: West Virginia
64: Geo. Washington
67: Indiana St.
68: Princeton
70: New Mex. St.
72: UC Santa Barbara
74: Toledo

If any of these teams makes a run toward the bubble, I will retroactively T-Rank them as well. Hopefully next year I will have time to rank every D-1 team before the season so we can avoid these kinds of surprises.

Another Ben Brust StatWatch™: Leading the conference in 3-pointers

As I've already detailed, Ben Brust is hunting down his own single-season mark and the Badgers' career record for most three-pointers made. After hitting five threes against EKU, Brust now just needs to average 2.6 threes per game over the Badgers' 21 remaining games (19 regular season and at least 2 post-season) to break Locum's career mark. This could come down to how many post-season wins the Badgers get. Hopefully it will be a bunch.

But Brust has one more three-related milestone in target: leading the Big Ten. His 34 threes currently leads the Big Ten. Yogi Ferrell is second with 29, and Nik Stauskus has 25 in just nine games. Brust has a narrow lead over Stauskus in threes per game (2.83 to 2.77). So, something else to keep an eye on.

As far as I can tell, the last time the Badgers had a player lead the league in three-pointers was 1992-93, when Michael Finley made 63, three more than Shawn "The Truth" Respert.

Badgers' Ball Screen Defense

Eastern Kentucky's coach had an interesting comment after his team got blown out by Wisconsin yesterday:

Coach Ryan is obviously incredibly well respected for a great reason. His ball-screen defense is so unique and it caused us to try some different things. And they weren’t very effective.

What is unique about Wisconsin's ball screen defense? It's a little beyond my ken, frankly. But I know this is a special interest of yours, Chorlton, so I thought I'd ask.

 

Indiana: On the Bubble

Indiana lost to Notre Dame at home in Indianapolis yesterday, dropping them to 8-3 with other losses to UConn (neutral) and at Syracuse. The losses aren't terrible, but they have no good wins. Their two remaining non-conference games are cupcakes, so they won't be getting any good wins before the Big Ten season. A neutral court win over middling Washington (5-4, #133 Kenpom) will be their best non-con win.

Their current profile is certainly that of a bubble team. They have an RPI of 90 due to a fairly weak schedule. Obviously, it's too early to take the RPI seriously. But their projected RPI is 49th. And they've dropped to 39th in the Kenpom ratings, which projects them to go 9-9 in the Big Ten.

Will 9-9 get Indiana in the tournament? That would be a 19-12 record going into the Big Ten tournament, so they'd probably have to win their first-round game. Of course, it also depends on who they beat; they'll have to collect some scalps. They'll have opportunities, as they get 6 games against UW, MSU, and Michigan. They get Ohio State and Iowa just once, but at home. They'll probably need to win at least four of those eight games.

Two of their first four Big Ten games are home games against MSU (Jan. 4) and Wisconsin (Jan. 14). If they lose to MSU, the game against Wisconsin will be something like a must-win.

It would be hard to imagine a more satisfying victory than one that bursts Indiana's bubble.

Big Ten over rated?

 

Big day for the Big Ten today. While UW has had a great non-conference season and will now coast into the Big Ten Season with a couple cupcakes in the next couple weeks, the rest of the Big Ten cannot say the same. The Big Ten has struggled against non-cupcakes this year and by my quick and unofficial count has just 2 wins against teams currently ranked in the top 25 (MSU vs. Kentucky, and UW vs. Florida). It's not for lack of opportunities. By my unofficial count the Big Ten is 2-11 against teams currently ranked in the top 25. There are also just not a lot of good wins in general.

Here's a quick list of mostly major conference opponents:

OSU beat Maryland and Marquette, still has Notre Dame

MSU beat Kentucky and Oklahoma, lost to UNC, still has @Texas

Iowa beat Notre Dame, lost @ISU and Villanova, no more big games 

Minn beat FSU and lost to Arkansas, Cuse, no more big games

Indiana beat Washington, lost to UConn and @Cuse, still plays Notre Dame

Purdue beat BC, lost to Washington St and OKST, still has @West Virginia

PSU beat St Johns, lost to Ole Miss and @Pitt, no more big games

Mich beat FSU, lost to ISU, Charlotte and @Duke, still has AZ and Stanford

Nebraska beat Georgia and Miami, lost to UAB, UMass, @Creighton, no more big games

Northwestern lost @Stanford, @NCST, UCLA and Mizzu, no more big games

 

Much has been made about the poor strength of schedule in the Big Ten. The Big Ten had better start racking up some wins. There are 3 major conference opponents today, plus Purdue gets Butler.

Wisconsin Sports Person of the Year

The prestigious Bart Torvik Wisconsin Sports Person of the year for 2013 is:

Bo Ryan. 

He has now won the award 12 years in a row. 

Court storming time?

Looks like the Badgers will finish their non-conference season undefeated with only 3 home games remaining against lesser competition. The first 3 Big Ten games are @Northwestern, Iowa, and IL. If Northwestern pulled the upset I would imagine there will be a court storming, and deservedly so. Although I'm not sure there are enough Northwestern fans at their home games to actually fill the court.

The 4th Big Ten game is @Indiana. If UW is undefeated they will likely be a top 3 team when they play Indiana. On top of that, IU has a 12 game losing streak vs. UW. Under normal circumstances I would say any time an unranked team (as IU will likely be) beats a top 3 team a court storming is acceptable. When you throw in the long losing streak against UW, a court storming seems inevitable if IU were to win at home. The last time IU beat UW was in 2007, and you will probably remember this scene:

IU fans storming the court after beating UW was as big a sign that UW was now a part of the college basketball elite as anything I've seen. Maybe I'm just old. I grew up watching Bobby Knight win 31 consecutive games against UW from 1980-1997. I was a college Junior before I got to see UW beat IU (I didn't watch much basketball when I was under 4). It may be undignified for fans at schools like IU, Kentucky, Duke, UNC, etc. to storm the court, but for fans of UW it sure makes a loss a little more tolerable when it happens.

Common sense tells me that UW will lose a game at some point this year. If that loss occurs on the road, then there will likely be a court storming. I sure hope IU doesn't get to do it, as I so enjoy watching Crean pout.

Seattle

I was surprised to notice as I was looking at stats tonight that the Seahawks are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL (not including the Monday/Sunday night games). They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, but everyone knows they have a great defense. It's not like they have been playing slouches all season either. They have already played several of the top defenses in the league, Carolina (1st), San Francisco twice (3rd), New Orleans (6th), Arizona (8th), Tennessee (11th), Indy (12th), and St Louis (14th). They still have to play St Louis and AZ again in the last 3 games. That's 10 of 16 games vs. top 14 defenses, so their scoring is no joke.

These guys are good.

StatWatch™: Ben Brust and Three-Pointers -- UPDATED

Last year Ben Brust set the record for most three-pointers made in a season by a Badger (79). The world was first alerted that this might happen by a perceptive StatWatch™ piece by a certain blogger.

Brust has 25 28 threes already this season, so he is on pace to challenge that record. Which brings to mind the question: is the career record in jeopardy?

Yes. Tim Locum has the career record for the Badgers, at 227 career three-pointers made. Brust currently has made a total of 161 164, so he needs another 63. At his current pace, he'd need another 27 games to get it. That's six post-season games. So it's unlikely, but worth tracking.

UPDATE:

I think the career numbers I was using for Brust didn't include the Marquette game, so he had 3 more threes than I gave him credit for. I've corrected the numbers above to correspond to what they should have been at the time of the original post. As it stands now, on December 12th, he has 168 threes in his career, meaning he needs 60 more to break Locum's record. That's 2.5 a game over 24 games (meaning two post-season wins). Should be a barn-burner.

StatWatch™: Jackson's assists

After 10 games, Traevon Jackson has 48 assists. I put those numbers into a spreadsheet and it informed me that he is averaging 4.8 assists per game. His assist rate (the tempo-neutral assist stat) is 30.1%.

To put those numbers in perspective, Jordan Taylor averaged 4.7 assists per game and had an assist rate of 30.4% in his great year (2010-11). Devin Harris averaged 4.4 APG his junior year.

I doubt Jackson will keep this rate up, but if he does he's got some even more impressive feats within striking distance. The Wisconsin record for assists in a season is 179, by Tracy Webster in 1992-93. At his current rate, Jackson would break that record in 38 games. The Badgers will play 31 regular season games, so this would require a bunch of post-season games—but not outside the realm of possibility.

Jackson is also averaging 5.3 apg in his last 7 games. If he keeps that pace up, he'd break the record in the Badgers' 35th game. I'd be very surprised if the Badgers don't get 35 games this year.

So I'll be keeping an eye on Jackson's assists.

Utah State update; Missouri on the radar

Well, it looks like I put the hex on Utah State. A while ago I noted that they were off to a good start, but had a test coming up with BYU. They played a good game with BYU, but ended up losing. Then yesterday they got upset at home by Pacific. So much for all that.

But another T-Rank outlier has come to the forefront: Missouri. They were one of the top upside outliers, ranking #27 in the T-Rank while languishing down at 49 and 52 in Pomeroy and Hanner's preseason ratings. Well, all they've done is win their first nine games, including a big win yesterday over UCLA. They're only up to 40 in the Kenpom ratings, but that still incorporates some his preseason bias.

They've got a couple more non-conference tests coming up against NC State and Illinois. We'll see if this is another hex.

10-0

Most seasons in most sports end in disappointment. So as a fan you have to enjoy the ride, and savor the highlights and accomplishments along the way.

The Badgers are 10-0 against the toughest schedule that any major conference team has played. This season has been a triumph so far. I am enjoying it.

Marshall's transfer

News broke today that George Marshall will transfer.

This is understandable, but disappointing. Koenig had passed Marshall on the depth chart, so Marshall's minutes were likely to be sparse for the rest of the season barring an injury. But that proviso is important: Marshall provided a great insurance policy in case of an injury or serious foul trouble. He is the kind of guy who could come off the bench and explode for 20 points out of the blue.

But the handwriting was on the wall for George. With Gasser's injury leading to an unexpected redshirt last year, the pathway to playing time for Marshall got extended yet another year. I think he would have gotten serious minutes here as a senior, at least, but it seems unlikely he was ever going to start at point guard with Koenig in front of him.

Torvik's Big Ten Preview

Chorlton is the master at in-depth previews of every Big Ten team. I can only pretend to have his depth of knowledge. And I will do so now.

Chorlton put things in terms of top and bottom. Instead of an upper and lower division, I think there are really four pretty clear divisions this year, and I'm going to predict that none of the teams in my four divisions will finish more than one division above or below the slot I assign them to. Put it in the book. Here we go.

Division #1:
Michigan State
Ohio State
Wisconsin

One of these three teams will win the Big Ten. (Keep in mind that there might be like a five-way tie for the Big Ten title.)

MSU was the clear pre-season favorite, and rightfully so. But though they've been ranked #1 for three weeks, they've gone through a few of their typical early season woes. A close game at home to Columbia was disturbing. Then they got destroyed at home by North Carolina, as usual. WTF, MSU? Thankfully, they've got an easy excuse: they aren't 100%. Star Gary Harris has a gimpy ankle, and Adreian Payne apparently has plantar fasciitis, which I believe is the sudden emergence of a third big toe (usually somewhere on the foot). Unfortunately, there's no guarantee these injury problems are going to resolve. Gary Harris seems a little ... fragile. And who knows how many more toes Payne might grow. Still, even at 90% this team has the talent and experience to contend nationally. I have begun to doubt whether they've got the balls to win the Big Ten, but they'll be in the mix.

Last year I made the mistake of underestimating Ohio State. Never again! Matta is a master, and Ohio State is doing its thang™ again. They are going to be great on defense, the only question is whether they can score enough. Luckily for them, scoring is often optional in B1G conference play.

As I've documented, Wisconsin has already had probably the best non-conference season in the history of the program. The win over Virginia was the most impressive of all, as it showed they could get down 'n dirty. I've had some concerns about their defense, but as time goes on these are dissipating. Indeed, their weakest defensive performance have come against lesser foes and their best defensive performances have come in their toughest games. Look at this picture:

On the y-axis is the Kenpom win probability for each of Wisconsin's games. (To put it in terms Chorlton can understand: The higher it is, the more likely they were to win that game.) On the x-axis is the Badgers' corresponding defensive performance in that game. For example, in the lower left you've got the Virginia game, where they had a 30% chance of winning but held Virginia to .67 points per possession. On the upper right is the North Dakota game—they were 96% likely to win, but gave up 1.15 PPP.

So this chart shows a very clear trend, but it is exactly backwards. You'd expect the Badgers to allow more points to the better teams, but the opposite is true. It's a mystery. But here's my thought: these guys rise to the occasion.

Division #2: 
Michigan
Iowa
Indiana

Chorlton wrote the book on these teams already, and we agree they'll finish 4-6. So just a few brief notes:

Michigan misses Trey Burke a lot, as any team would. He was a three-star recruit who became national player of the year as a sophomore. No one appreciates how good he really was, and thus Michigan is overrated. This is a big year for Beilein. If they revert to pre-Burke semi-mediocrity, my old opinion that he's more of a Tubby Smith than a Bo Ryan will be redeemed.

Iowa is definitely on the rise, and I actually think they're the most likely of these Division #2 teams to win the Big Ten. But they have serious flaws as well. In particular, they still struggle in the half court on offense. As we know, running won't get it done in the Big Ten, so you have to figure out a way to scrounge up baskets. Iowa lost a lot of close games last year because they just couldn't score at the end of games when things got tight. They've got all the same players, and could have the same problems.

Indiana does have some good freshmen. From what I've seen, Vonleh could be really good. I hope he leaves after this year. But this is a team that will struggle in the Big Ten. They're more likely to fall into the NIT than win the Big Ten.

Division #3:
Purdue
Illinois
Minnesota

One of these three teams will surprise us, but I'm not sure which one. Purdue has looked terrible at times this season, but I refuse to believe they won't improve. Illinois has a bunch of freshman, as Chorlton noted, and maybe they'll get good this year (but I doubt it). Minnesota has Austin Hollins (or maybe it's Andre who's good) and a bunch of other guys, and they'll get some wins at home. Which one of these teams will put together a lucky season? My bet is on Purdue because they have the best coach.

Division #4:
Penn State
Nebraska
Northwestern

I actually disagree with Chorlton, and have observed some improvement in his beloved "bottom." Well, not in Northwestern. But Penn State and Nebraska could win some big games at home.

Okay, I've run out of gas. Prediction time.

OSU, 14-4
WI, 13-5
MSU, 13-5
Mich., 11-7
Iowa, 11-7
Ind., 10-8
Ill., 8-10
Minn., 8-10
Purd., 8-10
PSU, 5-13
Neb., 4-14
NW, 3-15

Big Ten bottom

Some people think the Big Ten will be tougher than last year because the bottom teams will be better. This is largely based on an bunch of players returning from last year after having some success, some others returning from injury, and several transfers. I am not one of these people. I see only 2 teams that have a chance at to make the NCAA in the bottom of the Big Ten, and that chance is slim. The 4 other teams look pretty bad, and only one looks good enough to make a run to the NIT.

Illinois

After a spectacular non-conference season last year IL came back down to earth and finished 8-10 in Big Ten play. They still made the tourney largely because of those non-conference wins. Of the 8 players that played in 35 games for IL last season, 5 are gone (Paul, Richardson, Griffey, McLaurin graduated, Henry transferred). With a spectacular recruiting class coming in this year I expected IL to go young, and end up looking a lot like Purdue last season. Instead IL has an experienced starting 5 of 2 seniors and 3 juniors including the 3 holdovers from last season (Abrams, Bertrand, Egwu) and 2 transfers (Rice and Ekey). The 5 freshman come off the bench, but only Tate gets major minutes. He is getting about 20 min/game and averaging about 4ppg, and 4 assists. This group should mature as the season goes on and let IL compete in future years to get back to the top of the conference.

Does IL make the tourney? Maybe, but if so it will be just barely. IL has a very tough conference schedule so they will have plenty of chances to get quality wins. IL has 11 games against the top 6, and just 7 against the bottom. They get MI and Purdue only once at home, and Northwestern and Minn once on the road. If they can pull off a few upsets at home I think they will have done enough with a very tough strength of schedule to get in, probably with a losing conference record for the second year in a row.

Purdue

Last year Purdue struggled early while a bunch of talented freshman got their feet wet, but finished strong going 8-10 in conference play. I figured this team would make a jump this season with all those guys coming back, but now I'm not so sure. The top 3 scorers return, (Johnson, Johnson and Hammonds) but the 4th Byrd graduated and he was the only perimeter threat on the team last year. This team may be effected by the rules changes more than any team in the Big Ten. Purdue's lack of shooters on the perimeter won't allow them to take advantage off all the open looks available with no hand checking allowed. Against Oklahoma State's pack it in zone they looked lost on offense. Purdue also suffers defensively as Painter has always taught a half court defense heavy on ball pressure that is very hard to do with the hand check rules. Painter likes to pressure the ball handler which makes it hard for that player to get up a shot or make an entry pass into the post. Think of Chris Kramer all over the opponents point guard, harassing them into bad passes and getting steals. Look for Purdue to have trouble sending teams to the foul stripe all season.

Is Purdue tournament worthy? I don't think so. If Purdue makes a run it will be because Hammonds gets them there. He is talented enough that he may play in the NBA someday, but he has not been on the court enough this year. He was suspended for the first game, and Purdue almost lost without him to a horrible Northern Kentucky team. In the 4 games he played, in he is only averaging 17.5 minutes/game, and he got into early foul trouble again against Oklahoma State. Purdue is playing 11 guys in every game this year so far. Purdue has probably the easiest conference schedule of any team as they only face Indiana and MSU once at home, and IL and Iowa once on the road. The record may be about the same, but I think this team takes a step back and not forward this year.

Minnesota

Minnesota is in a major transition year. Out is Tubby Smith and the consistently mediocre teams he produced. In is Richard Pitino and a bunch of transfers. Tubby's teams had made the tournament 3 of the last 5 years, and he won his first tournament game with Minnesota right before he got fired. No small feat as Minnesota has only made the tournament 12 times in their history. Minnesota fans must remember the recent success of the Clem Haskins era, and think Minnesota basketball is capable of bigger things. Minnesota lost a lot of minutes and production from last year with Mbakwe, Williams, Coleman, Ingram and Welch gone, however the Hollins brothers return. Minnesota didn't bring in any impact freshman, but they have 3 transfers (Matheiu, Smith and King) that will contribute right away. Andre Hollins is a terrific player and should have a huge season. He should be able to carry this team to a win by himself in a few games this year. The rest of the returning cast is unimpressive to say the least.

Can Minnesota surprise everyone and match their 8-10 record of last year? Nope. This will be a bad basketball team. I think they will struggle just to get into the NIT. They have a fairly favorable schedule getting MSU and Nebraska once on the road, and Indiana and Illinois once at home. Minnesota will probably stay bad for a couple years unless Pitino can bring in some more impact transfers or freshman. Look for Minnesota to remain fertile recruiting ground for Bo to steal talent from over a crappy home state program.

Penn State

The three bottom teams are all pretty terrible. I think PSU will be the best of the three because of the return of Frazier. He is an all around good offensive player and should benefit a great deal from the new rules. This team's defense should be terrible as usual. They don't have much size (their two forwards Taylor and Travis are 6-7 and 6-6) so rebounding will be an issue and shot blocking a non-factor. Newbill gives PSU a 2nd scoring option if teams focus on Frazier, so this team should have what it takes to shoot their way to a few wins.

Can Frazier carry PSU to the post season? I doubt it. PSU has an easy schedule getting Iowa, UW, and MI only once. The other single matchup is Northwestern. With only 9 games against the top of the Big Ten PSU should get enough wins to look like they aren't as terrible as they are.

Northwestern

Northwestern also is in a major transition after firing Carmody who was probably the most successful basketball coach in team history. Like PSU, Northwestern is also hoping the return of a very good player (Crawford) will help them make a jump from last season. Also like PSU, Northwestern has a 2nd scorer in Cobb, who can complement Crawford and take some pressure off. Broken record here, but Northwestern is also terrible defensively and will have to shoot well to beat decent teams. Northwestern has a little more size than PSU with Olah, but they may not be any better defensively.

Can Northwestern get to 5 wins? I'm taking the under. They get MI and OSU once, but they also get IL and PSU just once.

Nebraska

I'm having trouble finding much to like about Nebraska. They are really lacking in talent. They don't even have the middling stars like Northwestern and PSU who might carry them to some shoot out wins. They do get 4 games against Northwestern and PSU, and only play UW, Iowa, MSU and Minn once. They should get a win or two, so I don't think they get shut out in Big Ten play. 

Bottom predictions:

IL- 8-10

Pur- 8-10

Minn- 7-11

PSU- 5-13

NW- 4-14

Neb- 3-15

Picks recap

With the regular season complete it's time to recap my picks. I'll update the final tally after the bowl game prediction. Last season I went 5-5-2 (4-1-1 on picks and 1-4-1 on the o/u) After starting out strong this season on the o/u I fell apart at the end, but I stayed strong on the picks just like last year. Overall this season I'm 10-8, 6-3 on picks, and 4-5 on the o/u. The lesson here is the same as last year, stick with the picks and leave the over/under. Over 2 years I'm 10-4-1 vs. the spread, and 5-9-1 vs. the o/u.

Should be a fun bowl game vs. a fun SEC opponent on Jan 1st

uw psu

Short post today. I'm taking PSU and the points and the under. Badgers are 24.5 point favorites. O/u is 49.5.

Badgers are getting it done away from home -- UPDATED

UPDATE:

With their win over Virginia, the Badgers wrapped up their most impressive away-from-home non-conference performance ever: 5-0, with all five wins over Kenpom top 100 teams. By comparison, Bo Ryan has never had more than 5 road/neutral non-conference wins over any three-year period combined. The only Badger team with a comparable showing was the 98-99 Badgers (see below) who won six games away from home against good competition. But that team is disqualified by virtue of their showing against SW Missouri State in the NCAA tournament.

ORIGINAL POST:

The Badgers are 8-0, something no other team in the country can say right now. There are a bunch of undefeated teams, but none that have played eight games. The other three teams currently 7-0 have losable games coming up next:

Wichita State travels to St. Louis on Sunday.

UConn plays Florida on Monday.

Syracuse plays Indiana on Tuesday.

I will be surprised if Wisconsin makes it to 9-0, as their next game is at Virginia next Wednesday. But even assuming they lose that game, this has already been the most impressive non-conference performance by the Badgers under Bo Ryan in at least one respect: four wins away from home against Kenpom top-100 teams (St. John's, Green Bay, St. Louis, and West Virginia). By comparison, the Badgers had a total of four such wins over the last three non-conference seasons combined, and just 14 total in the Bo Ryan era (about one per year, on overage):

Non-Con Road/Neutral top 100 wins [UPDATED after win over Virginia]:

2013-14: 5 (St. John's, Green Bay, St. Louis, West Virginia, Virginia)

2012-13: 1 (Arkansas)

2011-12: 1 (BYU)

2010-11: 2 (BC, Marquette)

2009-10: 2 (Ariz., Maryland)

2008-09: 1 (Va. Tech)

2007-08: 1 (Texas)

2006-07: 3 (Auburn, Marquette, Georgia)

2005-06: 1 (Old Dominion)

2004-05: 0 

2003-04: 1 (Penn)

2002-03: 1 (Temple)

2001-02: 0

Prior to the Ryan era (using basketball-reference SRS ratings):

2000-01:  2 (Temple, Marquette)

1999-00:  1 (Missouri) 

1998-99:  6 (Virginia, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Illinois St., Temple, Texas)

1997-98:  2 (Oklahoma, Fresno St.)

1996-97:  4 (Memphis, St. Bonaventure, Temple, Marquette)

1995-96:  0

1994-95:  0

1993-94:  0

1992-93:  1 (Marquette)

Big Win for Utah State

I've been keeping track of the performances of various "outliers" in my preseason top 50 T-Rankings. One of the more notable outliers was Utah State, which at first I didn't even rate but eventually came in at 34, putting them in consideration for an at-large berth. By comparison, Utah State was ranked 78th in the preseason Kenpom ratings, and 58th in Hanner's preseason rankings.

Well, so far Utah State is performing up to its T-Rank. It is 5-0, and last night had a big win at Weber State. Previously they had beaten USC at home, @UC Santa Barbara (kenpom top 100), and Miss. State at home. The real test, though, will come Saturday when it plays BYU on a neutral court. After that, they'll be heavily favored in their next ten games, so they have a realistic shot at being 16-0 and I suspect they'd start getting some national pub. At which point you could say that you heard it here first.

Go Aggies!

More parity

I noticed that there seemed to be fewer blow outs than normal as I looked over the top 25 scores. I didn't know if this was just my imagination or if there was something to it, so I had my co-blogger Bart pull some data for me from Kenpom. Turns out I am not imagining things.

Here are the stats on games between top 30 and sub 200 Kenpom teams from this year and from last year through the same point in the season:

	2014	2013	Change
t30/s200 Margin	26.7	31.3	-14.7%
t30/s200 Blow	71%	79%
t30/s200 Close	19%	5%

Bart pointed out to me that:

So there is some support for your impression. Last year the average margin in these games was 31.3, and this year it's 26.7. There have also been fewer blowouts (20 pts or more) and almost 4 times as many close games (10 pts or less).

We both had some ideas about what may be causing this, and the new rules seem to be the most likely culprit. The new rules should help kids get off shots without being hand checked. They could also force more collapsing to the lane to help since guys just can maul drivers with their hands, which could lead to more open perimeter shots. I think there will eventually be more teams playing zone too.

Teams that recruit players who are phenomenal athletes but not great shooters could end up being "punished" as these players' once-dominating defense is now marginalized. I feel like there are probably more upper-level teams that recruit these types of athletes, and more small/crappy schools that just bring in shooters. This might lead to more upsets, or at least closer games amongst the haves and have nots until teams adjust recruiting or the rules are adjusted. 

Bart added:

Another way in which the new rules might help the Davids is that you tend to see quick undersized guards at the mid majors. In other words, they are just as good at basketball, and speedy, but don't get recruited to the major conference teams because they can't stand up to the beating and can't get their shot off over big defenders. Now we might see these little guys just going around the bigger slower defenders. 

We'll have to look at this more as the season goes on.

How good is Wisconsin's offense? We may find out tonight.

So far, the Badgers basketball team this year is very good on offense and suspect on defense. This was an expected development, as they lost three senior starters from last year's team, two of whom were essentially defensive specialists and one of whom just had a disappointing year on the offensive side.

With Frank Kaminsky's 43-point explosion confirming suspicions that he has elite offensive ability; with Sam Dekker's exceptional talent continuing to blossom into refined skill; with three very solid, sharpshooting guards starting and two more coming off the bench—it appears the sky is the limit for the Badgers on offense.

How good has it been so far? Very good. Here's a telling stat: Wisconsin has scored more points per possession against each of its opponents than any other team has scored against them. In other words, each of the Badgers' opponents has had their worst defensive game so far against Wisconsin. That's the column of "ones" at right below:

(From kenpom.com)

The Badgers did have two relatively poor offensive games (against Florida and Green Bay), but those were still the best anyone has done against those teams. The caveat there is that Green Bay has played literally no one else in D1, and Florida hasn't really been otherwise tested.

But, on the flip side, the explosion against St. John's is looking better and better. I was amused by some of the commentary I saw on message boards after that game deriding St. John's poor defense. In fact they have a good defense, as expected—Wisconsin just picked it apart. St. John's has gone on to perform very well in on defense, holding Wagner, Bucknell, and Monmouth to 80.6, 102, and 82.4 PPP, respectively. That's not exactly a murderer's row, but Bucknell's offense appears to be excellent even without Mike Muscala: they are shooting almost 50% from three and have a team eFG% of nearly 60%; overall they rank 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. That performance against St. John's was their worst of the year.

Tonight, however, the Badgers play a truly elite defense in St. Louis—currently ranked 5th in defensive efficiency—so this will be a test for the Wisconsin offense. St. Louis continues to adhere to Rick Majerus's defensive principles. Like the Badgers, they limit three-point attempts and try to force teams into tough two-point jumpers: opponents score just 13.4% of their points on three-pointers (345th in D1) while scoring 65.3% of their points on twos (6th). Not only do they limit three-point attempts, but so far they've limited three-point makes, as opponents are shooting just 20% from three against them.

If the Badgers shoot 20% from three tonight, they almost certainly will lose. The Badgers score 35% of their points on threes, and they shoot a sizzling 45% from beyond the arc. They are a jump-shooting team, as usual, but this year at least they are actually a good jump-shooting team. If they go cold against St. Louis, say goodnight. But if the Badgers manage to fill it up against the Billikens, I think we'll know that they are definitively elite on offense

One mystery about St. Louis is why they are getting no love. They return four starters from last year's A-10 champs, all of whom are seniors now. They were very good last year: a 5-seed in the tourney, and 16th in the final Pomeroy ratings. They came in at 13th in my T-Rank preseason ratings, and have worked their way up to 17th in the current Pomeroy ratings. Yet they got zero votes in the most recent AP poll, despite being undefeated, so they are flying under the radar. But make no mistake: this is a top-25 team that will likely be fighting for a protected seed come March. This is a huge game for them.

In other words, we'll find out a lot about the Badgers tonight.