Dan Hanner took a look at the top 16 in the Pomeroy ratings and tried to assess how many times they had "bad games" on the theory that the teams most likely to win six games in the tourney are the ones least likely to have a bad game. Wisconsin came in 16th out of 16 in this metric:
| Team | Bad Performances | Games (Excluding 301+) | Percentage of Bad Games |
| Indiana | 4 | 26 | 15% |
| Louisville | 4 | 26 | 15% |
| Michigan | 4 | 24 | 17% |
| Florida | 5 | 25 | 20% |
| Duke | 6 | 27 | 22% |
| Syracuse | 7 | 26 | 27% |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 26 | 27% |
| Arizona | 8 | 25 | 32% |
| Gonzaga | 9 | 28 | 32% |
| Ohio St. | 9 | 25 | 36% |
| Georgetown | 10 | 24 | 42% |
| Miami FL | 11 | 26 | 42% |
| Kansas | 12 | 28 | 43% |
| Oklahoma St. | 11 | 25 | 44% |
| Michigan St. | 12 | 27 | 44% |
| Wisconsin | 14 | 25 | 56% |
In breaking down the difference between the Badgers' good games and their bad games, Hanner correctly fingered shooting:
Wisconsin has looked beatable on 14 occasions. It usually comes down to shooting. In Wisconsin’s 11 best games of the year, they have an eFG% of 54%. In the 14 games where they were beatable, the Badgers eFG% has only been 44%. Even if Wisconsin has snuck back into the Top 10 of Sagarin’s Predictor and Pomeroy’s rankings, with that kind of offensive inconsistency, they do not look like a Final Four team.Hard to argue with that. But stranger things have happened. For example, take a look at the 2000 Badgers Final Four team. They looked beatable all the time.
Nice work on the flurry of posts recently.
ReplyDelete