Monday, September 23, 2013

Last try to convince myself

This is a twofer. #3 is the UW defense and #4 is UWs track record of recent success against OSU.

I believe the UW defense is very good. Others who watched ASU score 32 points against them could reasonably disagree with me, but I think over the course of the season this defense will prove me right.

The other 3 offenses UW faced this year were awful, so while UW shut out 2 and held Purdue to 10 points and 180 total yards, it's hard to judge them based on those performances. Even with Braxton Miller back I think UW will slow down the OSU offense which is currently 6th in the nation at 311 rushing yards per game, and 4th in scoring at 52.5 points per game. OSU like UW scores based on a great running game, and only ranks 76th in passing yards at 218 per game. UW's strength is stopping the run, and they should be able to keep OSU under control. UW is big, experienced and physical in the front 7 with 7 seniors likely to start this game.

The recent run of success I am referring to started in 1999 in the famous dancing on the horseshoe game when UW blew out OSU 42-17 in Columbus. Since that time UW is 5-7 vs OSU, which is still a losing record, but is as many wins as any team has had against them over that same span. Over those 12 games UW is 3-3 in Columbus, hardly an intimidating record. OSU has only averaged 21.7 points per game over the 12 game span, and the most points they have scored is 38. In 9 of the 12 games OSU has failed to reach 24 points.

The point spread in this game is OSU by 7 1/2, and the over under is 54 1/2.

We'll see tomorrow if I have come around on a road win for UW.

1 comment:

  1. It's too bad the Badgers are so banged up.

    That said, I'm expecting a close game. In terms of #karma, OSU has had a lot of lucky wins so far in the Meyer era, and of course the Badgers are way overdue for some good fortune. So I'm cautiously hopeful ...