Update on the Big Ten race

Here's a chart showing each of the contenders' current chances of getting to various win totals:

Two things:

1) Last night's loss has devastated Ohio State's chances of winning a share of the title, which are now down to about 4%.

2) Michigan State has opened up a small but significant lead on UW. Prior to the Spartans' win over Northwestern, it was more or less a dead heat. But a combination of that win and some resulting improvement in the Kenpom ratings has lifted MSU's status to minor favorite.