Here's a hot take!
Yesterday we learned that that Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in his foot, and will need surgery.
I'm on record arguing against Embiid as the number one pick, given his history of injuries and lack of dominance at Kansas last year. But obviously the talent scouts know way more than me, and they are excited about his gifts and his potential.
And now that he's having surgery, and will likely be put on ice for all of next year, I think the Bucks should take him.
"What? You thought he was a risk when he was healthy, but now you want the Bucks to take him?"
Yes, my friends. Here's why. Chorlton has convinced me the last thing you want to be in the NBA is mediocre. Let's say the Bucks get the Wiggins/Parker leftover, and whoever they get turns out to be a solid NBA player -- maybe even an all-star. Is that going to get the Bucks over the hump? Is that going to get them winning playoff series? Maybe. But quite probably not.
But consider this. The Bucks take Joel Embiid. They suck again next year -- probably not as much as they sucked last year, but still pretty bad. As a result get another top five pick next year.
Now we're talking. If Embiid comes back and turns out to be the stars that the scouts think he will be, and the Bucks add another blue chipper to along with, um, those guys currently on the team, it's conceivable to think that the Bucks could suddenly have a really good team.
Thoughts?
"Suddenly having a really good team" may be a bit much to expect, but I'm OK with the Bucks taking Embid #2. I still like Wiggins the most, but even if the Bucks get him and he turns out to be a really good player right away, the Bucks are still a long ways from being good. Those other guys currently on the team would be the problem. The Bucks are pretty void of talent, and the talent they have is young and not very good yet.
ReplyDeleteThe Greek Freak should get a lot more playing time next year, but he still has a long way to go. Henson didn't make that 2nd year jump Buck's fans hoped he would make, and it's looking more likely he's a rotational guy and nothing more. Brandon Knight was forced into the Brandon Jennings role last year as a point guard who was also asked to be the primary scorer. He did what he could, but the role does not suit him. He will be 23 and a restricted free agent after next season, and I don't really know if the Bucks have figured out if he's in their long term plans. Larry Sanders is a disaster right now both on and off the court, and I'm sure the Bucks would dump him for anything if they could find a taker. The Bucks probably need 2-3 years of good drafts and player development before they have a chance to be good again.
It seems likely no matter how good Wiggins or Parker does in a Bucks uniform next season, they will be right back in the lottery again, and potentially with another high pick. I like Wiggins but I don't think he's the kind of talent that will walk in day one and lift a franchise up. He could be, but I see him as a guy that may take a few seasons to reach greatness. Picking Embid and essentially redshirting him so they can tank again would be OK too. The Bucks are more than 1 player away from even being competitive.
The trump card here is the new owners. Kohl and the new ownership have put up 200 million toward a new arena, but further public financing is needed. A recent poll I saw had over 60% of respondents in the Milwaukee area against public financing for a new arena. Taking a player #2 and not playing him for a year while your team is among the worst in the league is not a good way to build public support.
I'm sure you're right that this won't happen, what with the arena issue and all. In fact, it sounds like the Bucks' new owner has ruled it out:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/6/23/5834082/joel-embiid-rumors-bucks-nba-draft-2014