Sunday, March 8, 2015

Evaluating the predictions

I feel OK about the predictions this year. It wasn't a great year, but not awful like last year. This was a young Big Ten with a lot of new faces which made it harder to predict than normal, plus there was the addition of 2 new teams (I missed on both). If I got it right or within 1 that's a win in my book. Within 2 is a push. Everything worse that that is obviously bad. Of the misses there weren't any glaring errors like my 8 game miss with Nebraska last year. I was no more than 4 games off with any team. Despite adding 2 teams, I had the same number of misses (5) as last year. I'll only address the misses.

The wins this year are UW, MSU, MI, IL, Indiana, NW
The pushed are PSU, Minnesota, OSU
Misses are Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Maryland

Rutgers- One of the two new teams I missed on. I actually had them with 3 wins on my first draft but the total wins and losses didn't add up right. I added a couple wins for them thinking they might pick off some of the mediocre middle at home, but was wrong. I blasted this team in my preseason A-rank and predicted they would be the worst team in the big ten, so I don't feel too bad about the 3 game miss.

Maryland- The other new team I missed on. This team was tough as I didn't know much about them coming in, plus they had 4 freshman in the rotation, plus Wells and Smotryz missed a bunch of games early with injuries. I underrated this team and they kept getting better as the season went along.

Purdue- Speaking of teams with lots of freshman and getting better as the season went along. This is the 2nd year in a row I have missed on Purdue. I feel like I didn't trust my eyes enough on this team. It was obvious this team was vastly improved over last year but I was too chicken to pick more wins. I don't think many saw a 12-6 season, but I should have been better than 4 games off.

Nebraska- This is 2 years in a row missing on this team too. I blasted this team in my A-rank, but again I didn't trust my eyes enough to downgrade them appropriately. They got pretty much the same numbers out of Petteway and Shields but the supporting cast stunk and they averaged 6 fewer points per game as a team. The problem was shooting, as they were a God awful 28.6% from 3 while taking 36% of their FGA from 3.

Iowa- After 3 years of .500 basketball, Iowa finally broke through with a 12-6 season just as I gave up on them. Aaron White was incredible, and Jok got better and better as the year went along to give them something from the perimeter to go with that strong front court.

1 comment:

  1. Too bad you didn't have the guts to take UW to 16-2 like I did.