The Freshman Fifteen

There are at least two remarkable aspects of his year's Badgers basketball team:

1) Freshmen—specifically Sam Dekker and George Marshall—are playing a large role in the offense; and

2) The team is not a very good shooting team.

Another remarkable fact is that these first two facts are completely unrelated, because the two freshmen are the best shooters on the team. Dekker leads the team with an effective field goal percentage of 57.7% and Marshall is second at 55.8%. The primary reason they lead the team in eFG% is that they lead the team in three-point shooting percentage: Dekker's 3P% is 42.3 and Marshall's is 43.8. Brust is next best at 38.8%. Other than Kaminsky (who shoots 40.9% but has attempted just 22 threes), no one on the team is shooting even a respectable percentage. Berggren's current slump has him all the way down to 28.3%; Bruesewitz hits 30.9%; and Ryan Evans shoots ... well, it's not pretty.

In the Bo Ryan era, just seven Badgers have hit fifteen or more three-pointers in their freshman season. They are:


Devin Harris, 59-161, 36.6%
Sam Dekker, 30-71, 42.3%
George Marshall, 28-64, 43.8%
Jason Bohannon, 27-74, 36.5%
Josh Gasser, 19-63, 30.2%
Mike Wilkinson, 18-54,  33.3%
Alando Tucker, 18-58, 31%

As you can see, Dekker and Marshall so far are shooting a far better percentage than any of the previous freshmen who contributed significantly. (Note also that, other than Gasser, all of the other players on the list played their freshman season with a shorter three-point line.) This is encouraging, because freshmen almost always get better, particularly at shooting. Indeed, Harris, Bohannon, Wilkinson, and Tucker all shot better as seniors than they did as freshmen, and Gasser shot 45.2% from three last year (his sophomore season) before getting injured before this year.

I am looking forward to four years of Sam and George dropping bombs from three-point range. In fact, I have this strange hope that one of them might pull a "Jon Bryant" in the NCAA tournament. But more about that in a future post.

For completeness' sake, here is the data I compiled on freshmen shooting the three in the Bo Ryan Era:

2012-13 (so far)

Dekker 30-71, .423

Marshall 28-64, .438

Showalter 2-9, .222

Total: 60-144, .417

2011-12

Kaminsky 10-35, .286

Anderson 0-1

Smith 1-1

Jackson 3-8

Total: 14-45 .311

2010-11

Gasser 19-63, .302

Brust 2-10

Total: 21-73 .288

2009-10

Brueswitz 0-8

Berggren 1-1

Evans 1-5

Total: 2-14 .142

2008-09

Rob Wilson 4-14

Jordan Taylor 5-26

Total: 9-40 .225

2007-08

Jon Leuer 12-26, .462

Jarmusz 2-5, .4

Brett Valentyn 0-1

Total 14-42 .333

----------------> New 3-pt line

2006-07

Hughes 6-18 .333

Bohannon 27-74 .365

Total 33-92, .359

05-06

Krabby 8-29 .276

Landry 4-11 .364

Devin Barry 0-2

Daaron Williams 1-5

Total: 14-47, .276

04-05

Butch 8-25, .32

Flowers 6-17, .353

Bronson 0-1

Total: 14-43, .326

03-04

Kam Taylor 2-8 .250

02-03

Tucker 18-58 .31

Helmigk 1-2 .50

Emerson 0-1

Chappel 1-1

Nixon 0-8

Total 20-70 .284

01-02

Harris 59-161 .366

Wilkinson 18-54 .333

Neil Plank 4-18 .222

Hanson 2-9 .222

Total: 83-242, .343

The 15-make club:

Harris, 59-161, 36.6% (Jr: 37.3%)

Dekker, 30-71, 42.3%

Marshall, 28-64, 43.8%

Bohannon, 27-74, 36.5% (Sr: 38.9%)

Gasser, 19-63, 30.2%

Wilkinson, 18-54,  33.3% (Sr: 37%)

Tucker, 18-58, 31% (Sr: 32.5%)

Other notables:

Butch, 8-25, 32% (Sr: 30.9%)

Leuer, 12-26, 46.1% (Sr: 37%)

Krabby, 8-29, 27.6% (Sr: 36.4%)

Jordan Taylor, 5-26, 19.2% (Sr.: 36.9%)

Kaminsky, 10-35, 28.6%

Hanson 2-9, 22.2% (Sr.: 45.5%)