Hotness and Coldness Didn't Matter in Round 1

After Round 1, the average Kenpom bracket got 20.034 picks right, and the average bracket using Hanner's last-10 games data got 19.367 picks right. This is largely because 6 of the 8 games where they diverged the most (including the top 4) went against the hot (or for the cold) team.

Here's how the thousand Kenpom simulations did against the thousand Hanner simulations in Round One:

# Right		Kenpom		Hanner
27		1		0
26		8		2
25		23		7
24		39		21
23		81		55
22		130		97
21		149		133
20		182		178
19		148		162
18		121		139
17		69		95
Average:		20.034		19.367

I've consulted my wife, an epidemiologist, and the preliminary opinion is that these results are not "statistically significant" (whatever that means). They are, however, Torvistically significant—which in some (very small) circles is considered much more important.