Friday, October 3, 2014

T-RANK 2015


College basketball season started today. Well, practice anyway. This also marks the end of my off-season project to improve the T-Rank. I have expanded it to all 351 teams after last year's pilot project. And I've done my best to keep up with hundreds of transfers, etc. I'm sure I've failed. But you've got to draw line somewhere, and here's mine.

There will be outliers, of course, but overall I'm pretty happy with how this turned out. Louisville at number one sticks out, but everyone thinks they're a contender with Harrell back, so I'm not too worried about that. ESPN came out with their "top 25 teams to watch" a few days ago, and 22 of them are in the T-Rank top 25. Harvard (47), UConn (40) and San Diego St. (30) are replaced in the T-Rank top 25 by Pitt (19), Kansas St. (21), and Colorado (25). So the top 18 teams in the T-Rank are in the ESPN top 25.

I plan to have a bunch of follow up posts using the T-Rank data over at Bucky's Fifth Quarter, but I thought it would be good to just get the whole list out in the open now. Here it is!

UPDATE: Because I can't help myself, I'll continue to add transfer / injury data so that the final T-Rank on Basketball Eve is as good as it can be. Change in rank from originally published ranking is noted in fifth column.

UPDATE 11/6: Hopefully this will be the final update. Felt I needed to account for the news that Alex Rosenberg, of Columbia, is out for the year. As you can see, this is devastating to their T-Rank.

T-Rank Team Conf. Pyth Proj Rank Change
1 Louisville ACC 0.9577 0
2 Kansas B12 0.9527 0
3 Arizona P12 0.9466 0
4 Wisconsin B10 0.9464 0
5 Gonzaga WCC 0.9404 0
6 Duke ACC 0.9335 0
7 Kentucky SEC 0.9323 0
8 North Carolina ACC 0.9313 0
9 Michigan St. B10 0.9289 0
10 Virginia ACC 0.9232 0
11 Florida SEC 0.9187 0
12 Wichita St. MVC 0.9144 0
13 Iowa St. B12 0.9121 0
14 Pittsburgh ACC 0.9080 5
15 Michigan B10 0.9051 0
16 Oklahoma B12 0.9032 0
17 Ohio St. B10 0.8982 0
18 Villanova BE 0.8970 0
19 Texas B12 0.8922 -5
20 Kansas St. B12 0.8922 1
21 VCU A10 0.8898 -1
22 Mississippi SEC 0.8861 10
23 SMU Amer 0.8767 -1
24 Syracuse ACC 0.8550 -1
25 Utah P12 0.8546 -1
26 Colorado P12 0.8531 -1
27 Minnesota B10 0.8506 -1
28 Iowa B10 0.8465 -1
29 Alabama SEC 0.8460 10
30 Northern Iowa MVC 0.8443 -2
31 Illinois B10 0.8401 -2
32 San Diego St. MWC 0.8349 -2
33 North Carolina St. ACC 0.8321 -2
34 Baylor B12 0.8267 -1
35 Notre Dame ACC 0.8253 -1
36 Indiana B10 0.8211 -1
37 BYU WCC 0.8050 0
38 Butler BE 0.8047 -2
39 Nebraska B10 0.8039 -1
40 Connecticut Amer 0.8027 0
41 Creighton BE 0.7885 1
42 West Virginia B12 0.7845 18
43 Memphis Amer 0.7836 19
44 UCLA P12 0.7834 -1
45 Miami FL ACC 0.7816 -1
46 Florida St. ACC 0.7799 -1
47 Stanford P12 0.7793 -1
48 Harvard Ivy 0.7775 -1
49 Murray St. OVC 0.7745 -1
50 Georgetown BE 0.7722 -1
51 Oklahoma St. B12 0.7679 -1
52 Saint Mary's WCC 0.7651 -1
53 UC Irvine BW 0.7626 -1
54 California P12 0.7540 -1
55 Washington P12 0.7523 25
56 Tennessee SEC 0.7493 3
57 Dayton A10 0.7492 -3
58 Green Bay Horz 0.7480 -3
59 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 0.7476 -3
60 Cincinnati Amer 0.7465 -3
61 Arkansas SEC 0.7454 -3
62 New Mexico MWC 0.7424 -1
63 LSU SEC 0.7345 20
64 Denver Sum 0.7331 -1
65 Colorado St. MWC 0.7295 -1
66 Siena MAAC 0.7293 -1
67 Belmont OVC 0.7281 -1
68 Purdue B10 0.7277 25
69 La Salle A10 0.7275 34
70 Maryland B10 0.7262 -3
71 Richmond A10 0.7252 19
72 Georgia St. SB 0.7242 -2
73 Boise St. MWC 0.7238 -5
74 George Washington A10 0.7232 -3
75 Boston College ACC 0.7228 -6
76 Toledo MAC 0.7227 -4
77 Xavier BE 0.7190 -4
78 Marquette BE 0.7174 -1
79 Georgia SEC 0.7174 -5
80 Louisiana Tech CUSA 0.7169 19
81 New Mexico St. WAC 0.7112 -6
82 Massachusetts A10 0.7092 10
83 Evansville MVC 0.7089 -7
84 Tulsa Amer 0.7062 -6
85 Rhode Island A10 0.7061 9
86 Saint Louis A10 0.7049 -7
87 Clemson ACC 0.6973 -6
88 Davidson A10 0.6971 -6
89 Iona MAAC 0.6889 -5
90 Fresno St. MWC 0.6880 -5
91 South Carolina SEC 0.6859 -5
92 Seton Hall BE 0.6851 -5
93 UNLV MWC 0.6837 -5
94 UTEP CUSA 0.6832 -5
95 Texas A&M SEC 0.6788 -4
96 St. John's BE 0.6740 -1
97 Penn St. B10 0.6652 -1
98 Old Dominion CUSA 0.6640 -1
99 Wyoming MWC 0.6611 2
100 Oregon P12 0.6564 -2
101 Manhattan MAAC 0.6557 -1
102 Long Beach St. BW 0.6493 0
103 Lafayette Pat 0.6452 1
104 Columbia Ivy 0.6354 -63
105 Princeton Ivy 0.6337 0
106 American Pat 0.6311 0
107 Saint Joseph's A10 0.6273 0
108 Missouri SEC 0.6222 16
109 San Diego WCC 0.6173 7
110 St. Bonaventure A10 0.6162 -2
111 Illinois St. MVC 0.6152 -2
112 Northeastern CAA 0.6063 -2
113 San Francisco WCC 0.6041 -2
114 Portland WCC 0.6033 -2
115 Holy Cross Pat 0.6004 -2
116 Western Michigan MAC 0.6003 38
117 Georgia Tech ACC 0.5989 9
118 Army Pat 0.5986 -4
119 Arizona St. P12 0.5941 0
120 Southern Miss CUSA 0.5936 -5
121 Providence BE 0.5866 8
122 Middle Tennessee CUSA 0.5830 -4
123 Akron MAC 0.5768 -3
124 Northwestern St. Slnd 0.5751 -3
125 Charlotte CUSA 0.5727 -3
126 Yale Ivy 0.5666 -3
127 Temple Amer 0.5647 -2
128 Santa Clara WCC 0.5634 -1
129 Brown Ivy 0.5616 -1
130 Auburn SEC 0.5555 14
131 Radford BSth 0.5547 -1
132 Dartmouth Ivy 0.5521 -1
133 Tulane Amer 0.5518 -1
134 George Mason A10 0.5475 -1
135 Detroit Horz 0.5441 -1
136 East Carolina Amer 0.5387 -1
137 Florida Gulf Coast ASun 0.5384 -1
138 Rutgers B10 0.5380 -1
139 Missouri St. MVC 0.5344 -1
140 USC P12 0.5290 51
141 Texas Tech B12 0.5284 -1
142 Louisiana Lafayette SB 0.5269 -3
143 North Dakota St. Sum 0.5227 -2
144 Valparaiso Horz 0.5219 -2
145 Cleveland St. Horz 0.5206 -28
146 Kent St. MAC 0.5172 -3
147 Northwestern B10 0.5155 3
148 Indiana St. MVC 0.5107 -3
149 Wake Forest ACC 0.5090 -3
150 UC Santa Barbara BW 0.5015 -3
151 Buffalo MAC 0.4963 -3
152 Eastern Washington BSky 0.4936 -3
153 Duquesne A10 0.4903 -2
154 Wofford SC 0.4888 -2
155 Central Michigan MAC 0.4882 -2
156 UCF Amer 0.4787 -1
157 Oral Roberts Sum 0.4782 -1
158 South Dakota St. Sum 0.4774 -1
159 William & Mary CAA 0.4770 -1
160 Southern Illinois MVC 0.4728 -1
161 Drexel CAA 0.4698 -1
162 Washington St. P12 0.4696 -1
163 Quinnipiac MAAC 0.4671 -1
164 Weber St. BSky 0.4668 -1
165 High Point BSth 0.4661 -1
166 Bucknell Pat 0.4641 -1
167 Sam Houston St. Slnd 0.4631 2
168 IPFW Sum 0.4622 -2
169 North Florida ASun 0.4618 -2
170 Hartford AE 0.4614 -2
171 Oregon St. P12 0.4586 -1
172 Cal Poly BW 0.4578 -1
173 Mercer SC 0.4567 -1
174 UNC Asheville BSth 0.4567 -1
175 Loyola Chicago MVC 0.4554 -1
176 Ohio MAC 0.4532 -1
177 North Carolina Central MEAC 0.4480 -1
178 Houston Amer 0.4453 19
179 Vanderbilt SEC 0.4432 -2
180 Pepperdine WCC 0.4428 -2
181 Coastal Carolina BSth 0.4392 -2
182 Northern Kentucky ASun 0.4379 -2
183 Air Force MWC 0.4375 -2
184 Stony Brook AE 0.4346 -2
185 Arkansas Little Rock SB 0.4340 -2
186 Western Kentucky CUSA 0.4335 -2
187 Fordham A10 0.4327 -2
188 DePaul BE 0.4320 -2
189 Lehigh Pat 0.4310 -2
190 Drake MVC 0.4296 -2
191 Vermont AE 0.4287 -2
192 Saint Peter's MAAC 0.4279 -2
193 Boston University Pat 0.4213 -1
194 Lipscomb ASun 0.4199 -1
195 Robert Morris NEC 0.4194 -1
196 Eastern Kentucky OVC 0.4190 -1
197 Virginia Tech ACC 0.4156 -1
198 USC Upstate ASun 0.4102 0
199 Florida Atlantic CUSA 0.4098 0
200 Wright St. Horz 0.4094 0
201 Morehead St. OVC 0.4064 0
202 Winthrop BSth 0.4042 0
203 Incarnate Word Slnd 0.4021 0
204 VMI SC 0.4016 0
205 Towson CAA 0.4007 0
206 TCU B12 0.4005 0
207 Delaware CAA 0.3935 0
208 Nevada MWC 0.3935 0
209 Seattle WAC 0.3917 0
210 Rider MAAC 0.3908 0
211 Cal St. Northridge BW 0.3904 0
212 Fairfield MAAC 0.3892 0
213 St. Francis NY NEC 0.3875 0
214 Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd 0.3867 2
215 Bowling Green MAC 0.3861 -1
216 Southeast Missouri St. OVC 0.3847 -1
217 Colgate Pat 0.3826 0
218 College of Charleston CAA 0.3817 0
219 Mississippi St. SEC 0.3756 0
220 Montana BSky 0.3742 0
221 Charleston Southern BSth 0.3733 0
222 Idaho BSky 0.3691 0
223 Hampton MEAC 0.3674 0
224 Central Connecticut NEC 0.3644 0
225 Northern Arizona BSky 0.3598 0
226 Sacramento St. BSky 0.3558 0
227 Hawaii BW 0.3551 0
228 Miami OH MAC 0.3520 0
229 Bradley MVC 0.3514 0
230 Marist MAAC 0.3514 0
231 South Dakota Sum 0.3498 0
232 South Alabama SB 0.3441 0
233 Cal St. Fullerton BW 0.3392 0
234 Loyola MD Pat 0.3389 0
235 Milwaukee Horz 0.3362 0
236 Utah St. MWC 0.3360 0
237 Mount St. Mary's NEC 0.3358 0
238 Bryant NEC 0.3350 0
239 Canisius MAAC 0.3345 0
240 East Tennessee St. SC 0.3337 0
241 UC Davis BW 0.3327 0
242 Oakland Horz 0.3308 0
243 UAB CUSA 0.3254 0
244 Pacific WCC 0.3224 0
245 Alabama St. SWAC 0.3177 0
246 Western Illinois Sum 0.3174 0
247 NJIT ind 0.3104 0
248 Eastern Michigan MAC 0.3093 0
249 FIU CUSA 0.3058 0
250 Gardner Webb BSth 0.2972 0
251 Northern Colorado BSky 0.2960 0
252 Youngstown St. Horz 0.2942 0
253 James Madison CAA 0.2936 0
254 Albany AE 0.2925 0
255 Monmouth MAAC 0.2843 0
256 Northern Illinois MAC 0.2798 0
257 Elon SC 0.2687 0
258 Loyola Marymount WCC 0.2554 0
259 Nebraska Omaha Sum 0.2552 0
260 Navy Pat 0.2549 0
261 North Texas CUSA 0.2525 0
262 South Florida Amer 0.2523 0
263 Jacksonville St. OVC 0.2507 0
264 Wagner NEC 0.2503 0
265 St. Francis PA NEC 0.2501 0
266 Chattanooga SC 0.2491 0
267 Sacred Heart NEC 0.2458 0
268 Texas Southern SWAC 0.2444 0
269 UT Arlington SB 0.2430 0
270 Utah Valley WAC 0.2429 0
271 Grand Canyon WAC 0.2391 0
272 Penn Ivy 0.2348 0
273 San Jose St. MWC 0.2336 0
274 Portland St. BSky 0.2250 0
275 Marshall CUSA 0.2241 0
276 Morgan St. MEAC 0.2240 0
277 Western Carolina SC 0.2237 0
278 LIU Brooklyn NEC 0.2234 0
279 Illinois Chicago Horz 0.2212 0
280 UC Riverside BW 0.2163 0
281 SIU Edwardsville OVC 0.2127 0
282 Tennessee Tech OVC 0.2122 0
283 Eastern Illinois OVC 0.2114 0
284 Austin Peay OVC 0.2111 0
285 Southeastern Louisiana Slnd 0.2102 0
286 Arkansas St. SB 0.2058 0
287 Savannah St. MEAC 0.2053 0
288 Howard MEAC 0.2040 0
289 Niagara MAAC 0.1987 0
290 Bethune Cookman MEAC 0.1975 0
291 Hofstra CAA 0.1944 0
292 Maine AE 0.1938 0
293 Southern SWAC 0.1908 0
294 Arkansas Pine Bluff SWAC 0.1896 0
295 UNC Greensboro SC 0.1854 0
296 UNC Wilmington CAA 0.1840 0
297 Delaware St. MEAC 0.1831 0
298 Texas St. SB 0.1831 0
299 Campbell BSth 0.1812 0
300 Furman SC 0.1783 0
301 Presbyterian BSth 0.1740 0
302 Georgia Southern SB 0.1716 0
303 Appalachian St. SB 0.1698 0
304 North Dakota BSky 0.1690 0
305 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 0.1689 0
306 The Citadel SC 0.1674 0
307 McNeese St. Slnd 0.1641 0
308 Southern Utah BSky 0.1639 0
309 Tennessee St. OVC 0.1625 0
310 New Hampshire AE 0.1609 0
311 Norfolk St. MEAC 0.1566 0
312 Montana St. BSky 0.1561 0
313 Liberty BSth 0.1523 0
314 Jackson St. SWAC 0.1459 0
315 Coppin St. MEAC 0.1443 0
316 Rice CUSA 0.1409 0
317 Kennesaw St. ASun 0.1395 0
318 Louisiana Monroe SB 0.1360 0
319 UMKC WAC 0.1325 0
320 Cornell Ivy 0.1304 0
321 Prairie View A&M SWAC 0.1256 0
322 Idaho St. BSky 0.1239 0
323 Nicholls St. Slnd 0.1225 0
324 UTSA CUSA 0.1214 0
325 UMBC AE 0.1171 0
326 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 0.1160 0
327 Texas Pan American WAC 0.1133 0
328 Tennessee Martin OVC 0.1091 0
329 Ball St. MAC 0.1077 0
330 UMass Lowell AE 0.1059 0
331 Binghamton AE 0.1048 0
332 Jacksonville ASun 0.1032 0
333 Troy SB 0.0983 0
334 Chicago St. WAC 0.0976 0
335 IUPUI Sum 0.0911 0
336 Abilene Christian Slnd 0.0891 0
337 Mississippi Valley St. SWAC 0.0885 0
338 Stetson ASun 0.0862 0
339 Alcorn St. SWAC 0.0818 0
340 North Carolina A&T MEAC 0.0777 0
341 Houston Baptist Slnd 0.0756 0
342 Samford SC 0.0720 0
343 Maryland Eastern Shore MEAC 0.0663 0
344 New Orleans Slnd 0.0641 0
345 Central Arkansas Slnd 0.0553 0
346 South Carolina St. MEAC 0.0543 0
347 Alabama A&M SWAC 0.0473 0
348 Lamar Slnd 0.0433 0
349 Florida A&M MEAC 0.0427 0
350 Longwood BSth 0.0415 0
351 Grambling St. SWAC 0.0201 0

9 comments:

  1. What! Longwood is at 350??? No way they should be lower than 345. Jeepers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nuke, I'm well aware of "the Longwood Problem" and will be working feverishly to correct it.

      Delete
    2. Since my MIL is an alum, I have to represent

      Delete
  2. We are referred to as UIC, not Illinois,Chicago; or Illinois-Chicago; or Il-Chicago. It's UIC! Could you please make the correction for future reference?!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Blame Ken Pomeroy. Since I use his data, I use his team names.

      Delete
  3. The South Carolina Gamecocks do not play in Conference USA.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. Yeah the conference column got all messed up, will fix.

      Delete
    2. Fixed. Thanks for pointing out.

      Delete
  4. You're doing noble work here Bart. Don't let the transfers or the trolls get you down.

    ReplyDelete