6-2 after picking against Bucky last week to cover. Bucky now falls to 6-2 in covering the spread. This week they are a 6.5 point favorite and O/U is 41. So this is generally where it all falls apart. The reversion to the mean seems inevitable, but this is the year I'm going to beat Vegas.
Northwestern put up big points in 2 shootouts vs MSU and Iowa (54 and 38), but has been pretty ordinary on offense the rest of the year. They have not scored more than 24 in any other game. They started off the year with a one point home loss to Western Michigan which now looks fine since Western is 8-0 and ranked in the top 25. Losses to top 10 Nebraska by 11 and OSU by 4 also don't look so bad. If they had won the rest of their games they would look quite formidable.
Then there is the loss to Illinois State. State is an FCS team, and not a very good one at 4-5. This loss was not some crazy fluke either. State overcame a 2-0 loss in turnovers, and lost penalties too 9-89 to 6-70. The crushed NW in total yards 372-277. Northwestern was terrible in this game on offense, scoring just 7 points on a 4th quarter TD by going for it on 4th down.
Hard to see how Northwestern scores against a UW defense that has not given up more than 17 points in regulation this season. But then, this is UW vs. NW, and strange things always seem to happen. Remember the fumble when Barry was running out the clock, or even the Peavy TD last year that for some reason wasn't a TD.
I plan to be drinking like a college boy for this one at 9am in the cold morning air of Evanston. I feel like my drunken shouting will be the difference in this one. I'm taking Bucky, and giving the points.