Tuesday, November 8, 2016

UW IL

Made it to 7-2 this season against the spread, guaranteeing I'll finish at least .500 (if UW has 14 games including possible Big Ten Championship and bowl game). UW is also 7-2 against the spread. Bucky is a 26.5 point favorite this week and the o/u is 39.

Illinois is a bad offensive team. They are 80th in the country in rushing at 163 yards/game, and are even worse throwing at 113th place and just 164 yards/game. Their best showings were 52 points against Murray St, and 31 against both MSU and Purdue, all terrible defensive teams. Illinois has played a tough schedule. They played UNC and undefeated Western MI in the non-conference season, and have played Nebraska, MI, and Minn so far in Big Ten play. They lost all those games and scored 23, 10, 16, 8, and 17 points.  It's hard to see IL scoring more than 10 against a great UW defense.

Illinois is also terrible on defense. They only gave up 3 to Murray St, and 7 to Rutgers, but they have given up no less than 31 in any other game. Add that in with the offense and this is how you end up with a 26.5 point spread in a conference game when the favorite only averages 23.8 points per game.

Other than the blow outs against Akron and MSU, UW has not scored more than 23 points in any game this year. Granted those games have been against some good defenses, but UW is not an offensive juggernaut. They have a lot of freshman playing including starting 2 on the offensive line. I think they win this game comfortably, but I'm not sure they score 5 touchdowns. If they pitch a shutout they probably cover, but I'm taking IL and the points this week.

2 comments:

  1. I think the Badgers' offense, particularly the running game, finally breaks through and has a bonanza. Badgers 50, Illinois 1 (1-pt safety).

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    1. Nailed it, more or less! Suck on that Chorlton

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