Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Hot v. Cold Matchups

One more post comparing the full-season data to the last-10 data, and it will be a quickie. Here are the first round games that are most affected by using the last-10 data:

To explain, this means that Missouri won 21.4% more often using the last-10-games data than it did using the full season's data. Put another way, it won 214 more times in the 1000-game simulation. Specifically, it won 530 times in the original simulation, and 744 times in the last-10 simulation. If you were on the fence about any of these games, you might consider going with the the hot (or against the cold) team. (Keep in mind that UCLA lost its second-leading scorer, though.)

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