Monday, March 4, 2013

StatWatch™ Update: Now tracking Dekker's eFG%

Here are the developments in various stats I've been tracking for the Badger basketball team, and some research into an exciting new one.

Ryan Evans's 2P% vs. FT%:  Evans has had a couple decent games offensively last week. He shot 10-19 on twos, and went 4-6 with his new jump-shot free throws. But the gap between his 2P% and FT% widened a little. He's now shooting 42.3% from two and 41.7% from the line.

Badgers' Defense under 1 PPP: This streak came to a surprising end against Purdue. Terone Johnson had a real nice day, hitting all kinds of runners and floaters, which are exactly the kind of shots that Wisconsin wants opponents to be taking. He came into the game hitting just 40.7% of his twos (worse than Ryan Evans!) yet went 7-14 against the Badgers (after missing a few runners in the final minutes when the game was out of hand). Gotta tip your cap to him.

Sam Dekker O-Rating over 150: This streak also came to an end. Dekker had another nice game offensively, with 10 points on 8 shots, 3 assists and no turnovers. It adds up to an O-Rating of 144. Still good, but not good enough.

Sam Dekker in Double Digits: Dekker managed to continue this streak, which is now up to six games. Now only Devin Harris has a longer streak of 10-point games in conference by a freshman under Bo Ryan. Dekker can tie that streak on Thursday.

In other news, with another good shooting performance against Purdue, Dekker's effective field goal percentage (eFG) is now up over 60% for the season. This is sensational. Since 2005 (when Pomeroy's player stats begin) Dekker is the only Badgers with an eFG over 60 and a usage rate above 20. (Dekker's usage rate is 21.2.) The only other player who had a season with an eFG% over 60 and a usage rate above 15 was Keaton Nankivil in 2011 (61.8% eFG, 17.2% usage). The only other Badgers over 60 at all are Rob Wilson in '10 (60.2%) and Tim Jarmusz in '09 (62.7%), but they were bit players those years and don't qualify.

I went back and looked at all the final stats for Badger teams since 1987-88. I certainly could have missed some (since I had to calculate eFG manually for most of the years) but these are the only Badgers I found who contributed significantly and had an eFG over 60:

Tim Locum, 1988-89: 66.8%
Tim Locum, 1989-90: 66.6%
P. Thompkins, '90-'91: 64.5%
B. Good, 1991-92: 63.4%
A. Kilbride, 1992-'93: 60.2%

I haven't done the calculations, but I'd guess that only Thompkins actually had a usage rate over 20%. Locum averaged around 10 ppg in those two years, though, so those were certainly impressive seasons in any event. (By comparison, Kilbride and Good averaged 7 and 6 points respectively—I'd guess their usage was under 15%.)

Conclusion: Sam Dekker is looking like the best pure shooter the Badgers have had since before Stu Jackson came to town.

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