Monday, March 18, 2013

Simulation Results

I've been having fun with my Bracket Generator technology. Here are some noteworthy results from my 1000 simulations:

—Only 1 team (Southern) failed to make the Sweet 16 at least once in the 1000 simulations. (My simulation treats First Four match-ups as a single team, so Liberty piggy-backs on North Carolina A&T here.)

—All four 1-seeds made the Final Four only about 1.5% of the time.

—All four 1-seeds missed the Final Four about 15% of the time.

—55 different teams made the Final Four.

—33 different teams won the Championship.

—16 teams won the Championship at least 10 times out of the thousand (i.e. have a 1% chance at the title). Of these, five are from the Big Ten, five are from the Big East, two are from the ACC, one is from the Big 12, one is from the SEC, one is from the WCC, and one is from the Mountain West.

—Just four teams won at least 5% of the titles: Louisville (21.3%), Indiana (16.4%), Florida (18.9%), and Gonzaga (7.4%). That still leaves over a 1 in 3 chance that one of those four teams doesn't win the title.

—If one of those four teams doesn't win, it will probably be either Ohio State (4.8%), Duke (4.7%), or Kansas (4.2%). No other teams won more than 2.5% of the time, and the top seven together won 77% of the time. That's still almost a 1 in 4 chance that someone else wins.

—The champion came from either the Big Ten, the Big East, or the SEC 76.8% of the time.

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