Sunday, November 2, 2014


I have long been a proponent of the college playoff, and while I favored 8 teams I'm starting to think they got it right at 4. There are 13 teams that still have a realistic shot to get in this year. I have finally got over the summer ending, and I am ready for an exciting race in November to the final 4 of football.
There are 3 teams that totally control their own destiny.
Undefeated FSU, MSU, and one loss Alabama. If FSU and MSU win out they will be undefeated conference champs and in. Both teams have a chance to lose a game and still make it in, but may need some help with one loss. Alabama unlike Auburn, still has MSU on the schedule, so if they win out they are guaranteed to win the SEC with one loss which means they are in.
3 other teams don't control their own destiny, but if they win out it's hard to see how they don't get in. Some of the 6 other teams have to play each other, and it's very unlikely 5 of these 6 finish with only 1 loss. Auburn could win out and not win the SEC if MSU also wins out or finishes with a loss due to the head-to-head loss. However, it's hard to think of a 1 loss Auburn team with wins @Kansas st, @Miss, @Alabama, @Georgia, vs LSU, and Texas A&M will not get an at-large. The other 2 teams are a bit of a surprise and are mostly on the list because of the teams they have yet to play.
If Kansas St wins out they will be the champion of the big 12. They will have one close loss (20-14) against a very good Auburn team. They will have 4 road wins against ranked opponents @Oklahoma, @TCU, @West Virginia, and @Baylor. Now they have yet to play 3 of these 4 road games, so I don't think they run the gauntlet undefeated, but if they do they should be in.
Arizona St has a similar situation. If they win out they would have one loss (although it was a whooping) against a ranked UCLA team and would be PAC 12 conference champions. They will have wins @USC, @Arizona, vs Utah, Notre Dame, Stanford, and over Oregon in the PAC 12 championship. They have yet to play Notre Dame, @AZ and Oregon. Again, I doubt they win all 3 games so this is a long shot, but at least they know if they win out they are probably in.
These teams need help. Oregon, Michigan St, TCU, Baylor. Even if these teams win out there are holes in their resume. There is a good chance if they win out enough other teams lose and they get in, but I would not feel good if I'm one of these teams. They could be on the outside looking in with one loss.
Oregon is in the best position of these 4 due mostly to the win over Michigan St. If they are both 1 loss teams in contention, Oregon gets in. Oregon has a close 7 point loss to a decent Arizona team, but other than MSU their only big wins are @UCLA and @Utah. They need Arizona St to finish strong so they can get another resume building win in the PAC 12 Championship.
Michigan St has only one loss @Oregon, but lacks quality wins. Nebraska is the only ranked win, so they need to beat OSU and hope UW goes undefeated the rest of the way to rack up a 3rd ranked team win the the Big Ten Championship.
TCU played a weak non-conference beating Minnesota as there best opponent. They need to hope Minnesota finishes strong. Their only loss is by 3 @Baylor which is OK. They won vs.Oklahoma and @West Virginia but they need to beat KSU and hope for other teams to lose.
Baylor's non-conference schedule was even worse. Their only big win was vs. TCU, and lost to West Virginia. They need to win @Oklahoma and vs KSU and hope for help.
The last 3 one loss teams are Ohio State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, but all 3 have such crappy schedules they could conceivably be beaten out by a 2 loss team. They have a chance, but need to win out and get a lot of help.
I am predicting a final 4 of FSU, Miss St, Alabama, Oregon. I will try to update my predictions each week, but that probably won't be needed as I'm almost always right.

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