Saturday, November 22, 2014


I have reverted toward the mean with an 0-2 performance last week to drop to 7-3. UW is a 10 point favorite on the road vs a 7-3 team, and the o/u is a surprisingly low at 50 1/2.

With the home field advantage points of about 3, Iowa is viewed as about 2 touchdowns worse than UW. Iowa was a bit of a dark horse coming into this year, but they have not looked very good. Their only win against a team with a winning record is the opener vs. Northern Iowa by 8. They have beat up on the bottom feeders of the Big Ten, generally winning by about 2 touchdowns with the exception of the Northwestern game which is their best win of the year 48-7.  Iowa lost at home to Iowa St, @ Maryland, and Minnesota destroyed them.

I don't like giving 10 points on the road in a rivalry game, especially when a young team like UW is coming off an emotional win. This could be the let down game I have been waiting for from this team. However I've been waiting for a let down and this team just hasn't done it. They are more mature than their years, and I'm going to run with them. Mostly, this team is hot and I don't expect Iowa to cool them off, so I'm taking UW and the over.

UW 42-Iowa 10.

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