Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Tran-Pom Ratings

Ken Pomeroy has published his preseason ratings.

I have combined them with T-Rank to create Tran-Pom. Here is the Tran-Pom top 100.

When Dan Hanner comes out with his ratings in SI on 11/4, I will create the final composite, which will be used as the initial basis for the T-Power ratings - Kenpom-style adjusted efficiency ratings.

You might ask: Kenpom already mastered efficiency ratings for college basketball, why waste your time?

There is no answer. I need help.

Help.

Anyhow, the Tran-Pom 100:

T-Pom Team TRANK Kenpom Diff
1 Louisville 1 3 2
2 Kansas 2 4 2
3 Duke 6 1 5
4 Kentucky 7 2 5
5 Arizona 3 5 2
6 Wisconsin 4 6 2
7 Florida 11 7 4
8 Virginia 10 8 2
9 Gonzaga 5 18 13
10 Michigan St. 9 12 3
11 Wichita St. 12 10 2
12 North Carolina 8 20 12
13 Villanova 18 9 9
14 Michigan 15 15 0
15 Ohio St. 17 14 3
16 Pittsburgh 14 23 9
17 Iowa St. 13 25 12
18 VCU 21 17 4
19 Texas 19 19 0
20 Syracuse 24 11 13
21 Oklahoma 16 28 12
22 Kansas St. 20 31 11
23 SMU 23 36 13
24 Connecticut 40 16 24
25 Iowa 28 32 4
26 UCLA 45 13 32
27 Baylor 34 24 10
28 San Diego St. 32 29 3
29 Minnesota 27 37 10
30 Indiana 36 26 10
31 Illinois 31 38 7
32 Utah 25 42 17
33 Oklahoma St. 52 21 31
34 Georgetown 51 22 29
35 Nebraska 39 34 5
36 Memphis 44 27 17
37 Mississippi 22 88 66
38 Harvard 49 30 19
39 Alabama 29 58 29
40 Colorado 26 63 37
41 BYU 37 43 6
42 North Carolina St. 33 60 27
43 Northern Iowa 30 70 40
44 Florida St. 47 41 6
45 Creighton 42 47 5
46 Notre Dame 35 69 34
47 Maryland 71 33 38
48 West Virginia 43 55 12
49 Stanford 48 54 6
50 Miami FL 46 57 11
51 Butler 38 67 29
52 Arkansas 62 44 18
53 Purdue 69 40 29
54 Cincinnati 60 46 14
55 Dayton 58 50 8
56 New Mexico 63 52 11
57 Washington 56 59 3
58 Tennessee 57 61 4
59 Richmond 72 51 21
60 Georgia 80 48 32
61 Oregon 101 35 66
62 Louisiana Tech 81 49 32
63 Tulsa 85 45 40
64 St. John's 97 39 58
65 California 55 72 17
66 Saint Mary's 53 80 27
67 George Washington 76 62 14
68 Green Bay 61 76 15
69 Boise St. 74 64 10
70 Georgia St. 73 65 8
71 Murray St. 50 94 44
72 LSU 64 73 9
73 Xavier 78 66 12
74 Penn St. 98 56 42
75 Massachusetts 83 74 9
76 New Mexico St. 82 79 3
77 Stephen F. Austin 59 97 38
78 Clemson 88 75 13
79 Iona 90 71 19
80 Colorado St. 66 93 27
81 Marquette 79 86 7
82 Saint Louis 87 81 6
83 Texas A&M 96 68 28
84 UTEP 95 78 17
85 Columbia 41 135 94
86 UNLV 93 82 11
87 Seton Hall 92 85 7
88 UC Irvine 54 118 64
89 La Salle 70 101 31
90 South Carolina 94 87 7
91 Providence 121 53 68
92 Belmont 68 106 38
93 Denver 65 113 48
94 Rhode Island 86 105 19
95 Toledo 77 120 43
96 Wyoming 100 99 1
97 Saint Joseph's 107 90 17
98 Boston College 75 134 59
99 Fresno St. 91 114 23
100 Arizona St. 119 84 35

4 comments:

  1. Tran-Pom sounds like a fictional beverage consumed on a Cinemax collaboration between Alan Ball and Jill Soloway. It also sounds delicious. Beyond that, it's a beautiful exercise in futility. Also, why are you riding the Columbia bandwagon so hard? Beat Generation bias?

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    Replies
    1. Yeah, T-Rank likes Columbia. They return 100% of their minutes from a team that got a lot of minutes from Sophs. and a Frosh who were decent, and T-Rank expects to improve. Also, they return 11 guys who played at least 10% of their minutes last year, which is unusual. T-Rank totally ignores returning players who played less than 10% of minutes (really just for data collection reasons, though this won't be necessary next year) and the four Columbia players who played between 12-17% of their minutes last year give them an unusual bump. Take that bump away and they drop to 59th.

      If you read Kenpom's post about his preseason ratings, he factors in conference strength (or "gravity"), which T-Rank does not - probably a good idea that I'll look into for next year.

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    2. But this is also a reason why I like Tran-Pom: there is reason to be skeptical about Columbia, but also reason to be pretty optimistic. Are they an NCAA at-large, at #41? No. But the Kenpom rating is on the low side. Overall, I think a rating in the 80s for them is pretty reasonable.

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    3. One more comment on Columbia ...

      They were 21-13 last year, and finished #123 in the kenpom ratings, yet Kenpom projects them to finish lower this year, despite returning every player from that young team. Seems unlikely!

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