Sunday, November 30, 2014

A-Rank PSU

PSU looks a lot like the other PSU teams of recent years. They have a very good perimeter scorer, but no one else who can score. They have some unskilled bigs to give them size, but they often don't play them in favor of smaller more skilled forwards who suffer by playing out of position. The defense is not very good even when they leave in the bigs, and the offense is ugly because they have a ball stopper as the only scorer. This team is not as unskilled or ugly as Rutgers, but I don't see how they will be any better than last years team.

PSU has a 3 headed center rotation, but they also go small sometimes and play 2 forwards and 3 guards. It's a tough spot because they get bullied without one of the centers on the floor, but all 3 are liabilities on the offensive end. Junior Jack gets the start and plays about half the game. He is not very big, strong or skilled. His primary role is to let Travis and Taylor play the 3+4 instead of the 4+5. PSU brings junior Dickerson off the bench and he has legit size at 7' and 240lbs. Like many 7 footers his only talent is his size. The 3rd center is the freshman Moore who may be an effective player in a couple of years but will not be very useful this year.

PSU has 2 versatile forwards if they are able to play them at forward. Travis is a senior and is the more physical inside player of the 2. Taylor is the junior and has more perimeter skills but is also a good rebounder. Neither one offers much in terms of post up offense, and as a result neither gets to the free throw line very much. I feel like PSU would be better offensively if they got these 2 more involved, but their attempts are limited by Newbill and the other guards.

Newbill is the best scorer and shoots the ball a ton, but he also can play point. It's hard to argue with him hogging the ball so much as his production is pretty good (25ppg, 3.1apg, 49%FG, 82%FT 50%3FG). PSU starts a freshman Garner at the point who looks like he could be the next PSU scoring guard. His opportunity to play as a point is limited because Newbill controls the ball so much. Senior Johnson is a back up guard and is a mediocre shooter/player. Sophomore Thorpe has improved from his freshman year and should provide some depth at guard. He does not appear to be anything special but should give them some backup minutes.

PSU will live and die with Newbill as is the case when one player so completely dominates the offense. He has already had a game in which he attempted 33 shots, and has taken 50 more shots than any other player on the year. That's an average of 7 more attempts/game then the next guy, and he takes about 30% of the total team FGA. Newbill will have hot games and PSU will win some of those, but they just can't win consistently playing that way. This team will be fortunate to make the NIT, but should make a lesser post season tournament.

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